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doctormog
14 November 2019 07:06:07


It certainly looks to be trending drier Marcus. Just questions about where this blocking sets up if it materialises. A UK or Euro High is the form horse, but time will tell.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Although that is not what the ensemble data or most other models show.It is one possibility but there is little consensus and other more supported options.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 November 2019 07:23:21

GFS keeps any blocking well away from us, settling over SE Russia/Rumania, and that doesn't excite me.


The current LP never really goes away, and pays us a return visit from the south before linking up with a cool-looking Atlantic depression in the middle of anext week. This is centred closer to us than expected yesterday and finishing up over the UK as a decayeing feature by Sat 23rd. After a quieter but confused period, there is a zonal set up by the 30th with a trough from mid-Atlantic to NE of Finland.


ECM is a bit more blocky, with HP extending further north by the 24th, from S Russia to the E Baltic


Ens vary somewhat by region, but overall picture is back to normal by about 21st, and something for both optimists and pessimists after that. Generally drier after that


 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
14 November 2019 07:40:57


GFS keeps any blocking well away from us, settling over SE Russia/Rumania, and that doesn't excite me.


The current LP never really goes away, and pays us a return visit from the south before linking up with a cool-looking Atlantic depression in the middle of anext week. This is centred closer to us than expected yesterday and finishing up over the UK as a decayeing feature by Sat 23rd. After a quieter but confused period, there is a zonal set up by the 30th with a trough from mid-Atlantic to NE of Finland.


ECM is a bit more blocky, with HP extending further north by the 24th, from S Russia to the E Baltic


Ens vary somewhat by region, but overall picture is back to normal by about 21st, and something for both optimists and pessimists after that. Generally drier after that


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Here is the GEFS mean 500z anomaly plot on the 21st to give a snapshot indication of height anomalies in the NH:


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JACKO4EVER
14 November 2019 07:44:55


 


Here is the GEFS mean 500z anomaly plot on the 21st to give a snapshot indication of height anomalies in the NH:



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


which is just about at the limit of what can be reasonably believed. I wouldn’t want to comment on anything towards the end of the month, it’s clear we are in a stranger than normal pattern.

doctormog
14 November 2019 07:47:18


 


which is just about at the limit of what can be reasonably believed. I wouldn’t want to comment on anything towards the end of the month, it’s clear we are in a stranger than normal pattern.


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 Absolutely. I have no idea one way or the other (not for the first time )  re. the end of the month.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JACKO4EVER
14 November 2019 07:50:34


 


 Absolutely. I have no idea one way or the other (not for the first time )  re. the end of the month.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


doc I always get it wrong- so a clear “no comment” from me 🤣👍

tallyho_83
14 November 2019 09:56:22

Zzonal winds taking a dive and weakening rapidly so PV would be less strong? 


http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html


 

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Brian Gaze
14 November 2019 11:35:34

GEFS 06z follow recent updates. The consistency is notable. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
14 November 2019 17:50:46

.


Evening to all on here.


GFS and UKMO, both have Deep Low over the West Europe UK- but milder from Tuesday evening onwards next week.


Arctic Low Pressure from NW Atlantic through North and NE USA and N NE Canada as well- for same period of time circa at least next 8 days or so.


High Pressure over Norwegian Sea as well, and in Iceland and Greenland is prevalent often in next 8 days as well.


Low Pressure going around Greenland and NE of Norwegian Sea to North Russia North west Siberia etc.


There is plenty of hopeful thoughts, but the flooding risk is ongoing.


Further cold and showery weather this Friday- to Monday as well, then more heavy rain and showers on Wednesday to Friday, maybe Saturday as well.


Beyond that - keeping watching day to day model outputs.


.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
nsrobins
14 November 2019 18:42:29
With such a deeply cold plunge to our east late on (a la 12Z GFS OP and recently some suite options) and forecasts showing the u zonal mean tanking I’d hold sway with a forecast of ‘normal’ early winter stuff for now.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Argyle77
14 November 2019 19:06:10


GEFS 06z follow recent updates. The consistency is notable. 




Trending colder again on the 12z 


 


 

DPower
14 November 2019 21:13:17


Zzonal winds taking a dive and weakening rapidly so PV would be less strong? 


http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Zonal winds at 100mb (roughly 50.000 ft ) just over 11m/s yet although temps are around or slightly below average we still can not get a cold pattern to develope via the north or east. Therefore not overly optimistic that a weakening strat vortex and 10mb zonal winds will change things although I would rather have a week strat vortex than a strong one. Perhaps with weaker strat winds heights in the trop will be able to strengthen further and hopefully make more of an impact than they have so far. 

Argyle77
15 November 2019 01:32:52
Doesn't look like turning Zonal anytime soon.
Could be a big northerly outbreak before too long,if anyone is interested which appears not with hardly any posts,despite the most interesting NH profile at this time of year for a long time.
Heavy Weather 2013
15 November 2019 05:11:58
The 0z is really rather interesting.

It still develops that big low than meanders around around the UK, but northern blocking holds it nerves.

One gets the feeling that we could see a switch in the ensembles to a much colder pattern in the next few days.

It has to be said, that while a few days ago a pattern reset looked on the cards to a certain extend the GFS at least has backed off this.

This remains a fascinating period of model watching
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 November 2019 07:12:16

GFS 0z extends the life of a trough of LP lying N-S across the UK/N Sea to next Tue (19th) after which the Atlantic low previously forecast takes over, first W of Ireland, then decaying and drifting slowly SE to Sun 24th i.e. more to the S than yesterday's forecast. Thereafter a short break before more LP sets up to the SE. Finally the continental block relaxes its grip a fraction and that trough moves E by Fri 29th to get sandwiched between HP over Russia and a ridge of HP over the UK which becomes well established by the 1st, extending up to the Norwegian Sea. Yesterday's zonal stuff has disappeared so I'd call this untypical for this time of year.


Blocking - certainly a powerful block moving around over Russia, keeping LPs at bay. And to the north? Maybe, but more in evidence by the absence of depressions tracking through than anything positive.


ECM looks similar until the end of its run, Mon 25th, when it develops a deep depression off Norway with a strong northerly heading towards us.


Ens runs show temps fairly close to the mean, some +, some - through to the end of the forecast. Some widespread rain around the 21st, otherwise splashes here and there

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
JACKO4EVER
15 November 2019 07:44:32
Temperatures slowly recovering next week but rain is never far from our shores. Thereafter anyone’s guess, but the patterns look very strange for the time of year.
Weathermac
15 November 2019 08:42:10

Temperatures slowly recovering next week but rain is never far from our shores. Thereafter anyone’s guess, but the patterns look very strange for the time of year.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


My perception of this Autumn is that it has been a proper Autumn wet or very wet at times windy at times and average to cool with no very high temperatures which we have seen in recent Autumns you could say an Autumn from the 80`s .


So I would agree Jacko feels quite strange at the moment maybe something is brewing we will see.

Arcus
15 November 2019 08:48:01
A few more submariners on the GFS 00z 850 Ens I notice compared with yesterday's 00z. The only consistency at the moment is the inconsistency it would seem.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
ballamar
15 November 2019 10:41:00
Bit of a trend for HP to rise around Iceland in 10/11 days time. Hopefully can build more over Greenland and tap into that cold to the North
Heavy Weather 2013
15 November 2019 10:45:10

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_237_1.png


We need to get the cold into Scandi and on this run we manage it, but will the high then play ball to allow a proper easterly feed to develop?


 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Russwirral
15 November 2019 10:49:42

Bit of a trend for HP to rise around Iceland in 10/11 days time. Hopefully can build more over Greenland and tap into that cold to the North

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


Aye


HP seems to be appearing either ove the Uk or just slightly to the north.


 


Even if this just brought a period of dry weather - id be happy.  Fed up of all this rain now.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Heavy Weather 2013
15 November 2019 10:59:48


www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_237_1.png


We need to get the cold into Scandi and on this run we manage it, but will the high then play ball to allow a proper easterly feed to develop?


 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Nothing on this run, the high just deflates and the model goes back to a default pattern 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
15 November 2019 11:02:37

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
15 November 2019 11:19:34




Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


not quite summer at the ground level though and if the air stagnates could easily be some chilly temps

Brian Gaze
15 November 2019 11:28:00


 


not quite summer at the ground level though and if the air stagnates could easily be some chilly temps


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Agree but even at the 2m level it still looks pretty "warm" for the time of year in much of Europe.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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