Anyone looked at the model on Meteociel.fr - the Strat temps at 10hpa:

Run the model from +192:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=1&mode=7

Again a long way off but it's a consistent signal for a SSW to develop at end of run!!?

looks to me like its the Euro,s v gfs no surprise there then. Nothing set in stone of course but looking at the gfs run archive from just two, three days ago it is definitely moving in the direction of the Euro,s. Post t168 which should be viewed  with deep scepticism the ecm run at t240 oozes potential. I for one am hopeful for the trend to continue with better synoptic and colder runs to come over the coming days.

One thing I have noticed on the strat charts is that although the fi stages of the runs has watered down the warming a little, the warming is now starting to show much earlier with the first signs at t192. No sign from what I can see of a full SSW yet but then again you don't always need one. 

Definitely looks like a growing signal , we live in hope.

Indeed! With December 2010 we never had a SSW - which then provided us with a full 4 weeks (1 full month of bitterly cold snowy, weather!?

It appears to me as if the initial warming ahead of a potential SSW is developing across the Siberian / Asian side in the same fashion as it did at the end of December 2018 ?

The response that time was to build pressure from the south across the UK leading to a fairly benign and mild January before a change to something briefly colder and unsettled after the 20th until the end of the month ?

Form house IMO would be for some sort of split PV, leading to a strong +ve NAO. One lobe across Iceland and one lobe across NE Russia leaving us in the middle with a settled regime. Very mild if the cell anchors to our south. Colder if HP resides more centrally across the UK.

As ever, we shall see. Milder and dry would be a satisfactory outcome for most of us I would have thought after the cool wet weather of late. 

Hi all on here.

Yeah - Next week Tropical Storm Sebastian could be hitting the UK 26th Tuesday hit the UK with a very deep Low SW to the eastward- Southern UK and Central UK could get a spell of heavy rain, very strong winds and chance of lightning and maybe some thundery showers as well.

That second warmth SSW Plume in Asia I have seen modelled as well- much will depend how our UK location is placed- maybe NE Europe might be best placed and we might me on the SW side where less cold weather maybe possible- come 2nd week of December and mid-month.

But you never know maybe we could get the cold NW SE moving Low Pressure and cold conditions could happen for said period.  It might mean Low Pressure drag cold air to NE USA and over Greenland and then also Eastern Europe with high pressure from the Azores High might set up over West and NW Europe innit.   If that happened the Norway and Finland could see very cold below freezing North then NE winds.

Shades of "Winter" 2013/14 right at the tail end of the 18z GFS run.  Of course at that range just cannot be taken seriously . . . but that is enough to give anyone nightmares tonight.

ECM 12z ensemble for London

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

The first obvious point is how completely out of line the GFS 12z op run looks: at the mild end of the ECM suite throughout and at times almost an outlier after Day 9.

The ECM op was at the lower end of the options but never without some support.

The cold cluster that's been apparent for 4-5 runs now is a little better supported and as a result it pulls the mean down to around 5C before a little more scatter appears at the end.

I don't think GFS has the evolution right from around a week ahead so I'm completely disregarding the low res part of the run.

WOW! Stunning GFS and Ukmo this morning . Could it be a QTR to the strat warming seems almost too quick. Anyway who cares GFS is cold and snowy.

A very good start to the day 

Good from ECM

The pattern for this week is much the same as yesterday, Atlantic depressions of no great strength moving across the UK (though it has to be said that the present one is sticking aound and producing more rain than predicted a few days ago). Then - excitement for cold rampers - the forecast yesterday of a narrow N-S ridge over the UK for week 2 has been replaced by a mid-Atlantic ridge with spectacular northerlies for Wed-Thu 4-5 Dec - and driven by LP in the North Sea so snow at least for the hills. Then another bite on Sun 8th (could the Express be right for once? Wait and see if it verifies!)

ECM, after a similar week 1, develops a feature like GFS but for Mon 2nd, earlier and not as intense.

GEFS shows above average temps generally with most rain in the S & W in week 1, then most runs colder in week 2 (though not lasting) and more pptn in the N & E. That fits with the GFS as you'd expect but not as spectacular.

Only in the winter, nobody has ever heard what it like the rest of the year.