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picturesareme
21 November 2019 14:39:23


 


 


Yeah, it is this situation that will by Tomorrow bring about milder - a few degrees above normal temperatures- mild sectors with SW winds, the high pressure ridging, but some days we will get wet and windy weather followed by another day of wet and windy.


.


 


Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


There will also potentially be an injection of tropical warmth from the remnants of a hurricane over our way early next week. Would this not have an effect on the models?

Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 15:10:07


 


The Pizza Slice is back and its a very valid description I must admit


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The Guardian credited me with "continental blowtorch" a few years ago, but I think pioneering the use of "pizza slice" could be my real legacy. cool


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
21 November 2019 15:35:56


 


The Guardian credited me with "continental blowtorch" a few years ago, but I think pioneering the use of "pizza slice" could be my real legacy. cool


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, that would take some topping.


snow_dann
21 November 2019 15:40:52


 


Yes, that would take some topping.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I understood this reference! 

Gandalf The White
21 November 2019 16:14:31


 


Yes, that would take some topping.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That’s definitely one to take away...


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 16:28:36


 


Yes, that would take some topping.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Shropshire
21 November 2019 17:04:23


I don't see how the Atlantic can become blocked from there. The 12z FI follows the 06z - if we get to that sort of position by day 14 then it's a long haul back from there.


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gandalf The White
21 November 2019 17:08:26


 


I don't see how the Atlantic can become blocked from there. The 12z FI follows the 06z - if we get to that sort of position by day 14 then it's a long haul back from there.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes, at least 6-8 weeks, so that's winter written off for another year.....


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Argyle77
21 November 2019 17:19:24

The gfs making more of the Azores high than the other models,so probably it got the pattern wrong.

Now watch the ECM follow it,as anything that can go wrong regarding getting cold into the U.K.,normally does.

Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 17:24:11


 


I don't see how the Atlantic can become blocked from there. The 12z FI follows the 06z - if we get to that sort of position by day 14 then it's a long haul back from there.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Most of us know an A380 isn't getting us back from there. However, it is only one option on offer at this stage.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
21 November 2019 17:30:03
In the medium to longer term the outlook seems very volatile with both very mild air and very cold air close to our little islands. The uncertainty is very high but cold and mild are both distinct possibilities as we head into meteorological winter. Up here there is actually reasonable agreement for a brief shot of cold and then....chaos.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 
Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 17:36:30

Just stepped through the GEFS 12z runs and after 300 hours on balance they are looking absolutely horrendous for cold weather IMHO. I've been away for the last 48 hours so haven't been following the details but clearly something appears to have changed. Whether that will show up clearly in  the TWO 12z GEFS line graphs I don't know. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 November 2019 17:41:00

.


A faster look at the charts suggests, that spells of SW to NE moving Low Pressure waves and Cyclonic pattern, with brief ridging is being forecasted.


Rainfall will be falling in the usual prone locations- hills and mountain areas, parts to the South SW North and SE or NW of these locations, regions of dry weather as well expected.  Next 6-10 days.


Some tropical moisture is frequent in the forecasts as well.


NW Europe looks set to turn more unsettled than of recently.


Cold and snowy in parts of Canada- more in the NW South and SE to East parts, next 6-10 days.


NW Central and NE USA, seeing large swings in temperature, and some high pressure and also Low Pressure systems that bring rain and heavy snow to those areas, cold temperatures at times, as well as some regular SW milder spells as well, causing by mild sectors and areas of high pressure.


They, and us have similar weather next 6-10 days but North and NE USA and NW USA sees colder weather than NW Europe at times Lol. 


Scotland and Northern parts of Europe expected to see some cold NW winds and some sleet or snow showers, from Thursday 28th November onwards.



Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Lionel Hutz
21 November 2019 17:50:22


 


Yes, at least 6-8 weeks, so that's winter written off for another year.....


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Only for this winter? I'd say that you can probably write off winter 2020/21 as well - you know how persistent that zonal train can be....


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 17:51:43

As expected the GEFS 12z line graphs (at least for southern locations) have gone very mild after 3rd December. Even the ensembles are prone to major changes. Therefore I have embedded a static snapshot so we can see how good or bad this looks in a few days time.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
roadrunnerajn
21 November 2019 17:55:34
Those ens look like an atmospheric earthquake....
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
doctormog
21 November 2019 17:56:45

Decent agreement for the next week or so then anything goes. Equally as chaotic, if not moreso up here and rather useless for forecasting anything apart from uncertainty in December. The proximity of the cold to the north is highlighted in the contrast between the different ensemble summaries (north and south). A small shift could have a big if possibly brief impact.

Take your pic... https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP03EU12_264_2.png 

Or maybe... https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP16EU12_264_2.png 


Gooner
21 November 2019 18:05:11

Looks like HP to the South has become favourite in the latter stages - cold in short supply it has to be said ……...at the moment 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
21 November 2019 18:32:34

I would be reluctant to dismiss cold weather based on current output.

Here is the ECM 12z so far https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png



ballamar
21 November 2019 19:03:37


I would be reluctant to dismiss cold weather based on current output.

Here is the ECM 12z so far https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


that can’t happen GFS has had high pressure over Europe for the last couple of runs. It must be true

Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 19:09:29

ECM 12z similar to GFS at 144 tonight. If anything uppers are a tad higher across central Britain.



 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 November 2019 19:13:00

Hi all.


There is the ECMWF Model 12z, that turns it quite cold for three days Starting from Friday the 29th November.


This looks very great. Greenland High retrogression to UK and NW Europe on day 3 of cold plunge. Frosty and cold sunny.  Friday and Saturday could be cold with wintry weather over the UK.


Then Mid North Atlantic Low drags WAA far off from the UK NW Europe- over the Mid N Atlantic and quite blocked to it’s east and West and over Greenland again.


Todays 12z ECMWF differs and goes against the UKMO, GFS and ICON.


Time will tell which one will behave itself.


 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
David M Porter
21 November 2019 19:21:57


 


 


that can’t happen GFS has had high pressure over Europe for the last couple of runs. It must be true


Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Some will take anything that GFS FI shows as gospel- if it is showing the type of weather they desire.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
21 November 2019 19:28:04


 



Some will take anything that GFS FI shows as gospel- if it is showing the type of weather they desire.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Indeed. Looking before then at a week out +168hr)on the ECM it would be very chilly in places and potentially wintry in some northern parts, with the colder air moving south (for a time at least) as shown in Brian’s chart above (+144hr).


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