I’m ok with the 0z run.

I think what we are seeing is the charts reacting to the arming taking place. Hench the chaos and volatity

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The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away ... Yesterday's 0z northerly promise had turned into a sunbathing session by 12z. At least this morning we're back to something halfway seasonal. So basically the models aren't coping at the moment. With that caution in mind, here goes:

GFS 0z shows LP across the UK this coming week with a little bit of back edge northerly at the end of the week. Then Hp briefly sets up in mid-Atlantic before retreating to our SW and allowing a strong westerly well into Europe by the end of week 2 (Fri 6th) Just a hint after that of the westerly flow being disrupted by colder air from either Greenland or Norway. ECM similar but throws in a bit of a northerly as that mid-Atlantic HP develops

Jetstream strong and to the south of the UK for next week breaking into a more looping pattern after that.

GEFs ens runs show temps a little above average to the 29th, then mostly a little below to the 3rd and then a scatter either side of the seasonal average. Rainfall generally concentrated around the 27th and the 3rd, notably in the south and then some more randomly towards the end (say the 7th)

 

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For the time of year, it seems remarkably resistant over W Russia, Scandinavia and E Europe, to grow any real cold over the coming week. Moscow's spread over the week in the GFS Ens stays well above the LTA, but then it changes dramatically thereafter, right on the month's transition. We need more seasonal cold over these areas to make any use of the decent number of sinking or more southerly tracking lows we've been getting. Add: the northerly option is always there still, of course.

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 We need to look a little closer to developments at 120-168 hours.

Good agreement this morning for a cold ridge to extend from Greenland after our departing eastward low introduces a colder N or NW'ly. Circa 120 ish.

All eyes on where the next low enters the mix. A fair few offer a ESE'ly moving slider digging into residual cold air.

Midlands, northwards look favoured for something wintry, the risk extends further south dependant on the track of the next low.

 GFS 168

ECM 168

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Yes, I think me need a few more days yet to get an idea of what early December holds. As it stands the options range from cool, to mild unsettled (possibly very mild) or more settled (with temperatures dependent of the location of any High).

Before then milder than recently and unsettled then something a bit cooler from the north - how cold or extensive remains to be eeen.

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Quite agree, it’s very much steady as she goes. It’s a good position to be in. I’d rather be second guessing that staring down the barrel at long fetch westerly. That isn’t the form horse, whatever Shropshire would have us believe.

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absolutely, some interest maintained with a number of options on the table. In the nearer timeframes some more rain, possibly heavy on Tuesday to affect large parts of the country. 

Just to add my 2 pennies worth

If we look at all the attempts the models have made since October to portray a return to some sort of Normality & Zonal condition after T192 in reality they have all failed- & the transition time from that 192 forecast of mobility to somewhere around 168 morphing into 'blocked' is where we stand today.

As mentioned over on NW I am not expecting the models to move to a full blown Greenland High however in the mid term certainly getting much colder again Day 5-6 sees the -5 line reaching london ( remember thats 4/5 degrees colder than ave )

Post that the ridge is interesting- the current out put especially the GFS would have you believe that its going to flatten off quickly before zonal conditions set in after however the leap of faith here is that the ridge will be more vertical & the exit of the low from the states will be slower
The net fall out being some sort of wedge over Scandi assisting the cold air in situ over the UK with the -8c line approaching from the East....

Thanks

Update.

Watch this space.

Caveat.

There is still some amount of outcomes for day 6-8.

The Models are all over the place.

Different approach by the GFS, UKMO supports the GFS ICON and ECMWF at 144hrs.

What happens at 168, 192 and 216 is up for grabs.

If the Azores and Greenland Blocking asserts itself and we drag Cold air from the NE and then from Iceland, yeah it could bring cold weather for us.

Low Pressure moving up West and North Greenland and cold NE winds across the UK by GFS 00z is not supported by the Icon and UKMO for Friday at 144hrs.

Flat Azores high riding to our SW on Sunday to Tuesday can happen if ECMWF get’s it right, Low Pressure over NW Atlantic is what ECMWF shows at 00z, 192-216-240.  

But the Icon also has the long fetch SSW to NNE pointing double PV Low to fat West NW Atlantic towards SW of Greenland.

GFS Midrange has Cold PV Low Pressure dropping south over to our North and NE of UK and North to NE of Europe by day 7-9.  With Low Pressure going through West and North of Greenland on 00z GFS.

We need ECMWF ICON and UKMO to and GFS model to show some consistency.

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Control, Op and mean all telling roughly the same tale out to about day 12.

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Jet a long way south on the GFS 6Z by the end of the run. Cool wet westerlies, anyone?

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Look at how fast things can change with the 12z ICON !
❄️

Where is it, please?

Edit: found it Steve, thanks- although I can't see what you're hinting at; this one goes to T+120

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Meteociel have it up to 180hr currently on the 12z run

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-180.png?23-12

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Dreadful 12z unfolding with the energy going over the top.

 

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Thanks Doc; now that does look interesting, although the pressure gradient is worryingly slack- I sometimes feel that's uncertainty for us rather than a strategically placed col.

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All the 3 afternoon runs GEM / ICON / UKMO have dumped the GFS idea of a fast progressive eastward motion..

I thought the “12z” was dreadful?

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12z what?

Don't ask me as that was my thought too. 

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Lol - not sure.

*But* to highlight the 12z trend is 'west' with that bowling ball low over the NE states at 144.
GFS Ensemble mean at 138 following the 'trend' so there will be many more cold solutions for the UK at 192.

A key trend of the day. >>> Cold.

My comment was on the GFS which shows a sinking high from day 9.

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To sum up the 12z so far, gfs woeful, ukmo slightly better but would probably go the same way as the gfs and as for the other two models LOL. Icon has lost the plot completely and the gem similarish to ukmo. Apart from a couple of rather cold days perhaps theres nothing of interest for a cold weather lovers.
Things are pretty poor when the gem and icon are rolled out unless your wearing rose tinted glasses of course.

Similar mix from the GEFS 12z. 

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The GEFS 12z stamps at 240 and 384. A quick glance to me suggests a high pressure bomb from the south continues to be the favoured option. Nonetheless that doesn't tie in with the Met O 30 dayer at the present time, so I emphasise uncertainty.

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