Guys. We need a balanced approach here. 

A word of caution for those excited about the prospects of a turn of the month cold snap.

GEM or UKMO does not develop the Greenland ridge cold usherer like the ECM or GFS.

UKMO 144

 GEM 144

The model news is really about exTS Sebastien which (IIRC) wasn't being shown on UK weather charts as a major feature until yesterday. Now we have it running along the south coast with weather warnings for rain at first in the SW and by Tue as far east as Sussex. See the Fax chart https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVK89.jpg?cb=2 wih a 967mb centre off the S coast of Ireland.

GFS shows a brief spell of NE-ly winds in its wake but as above, I think only a baby cold snap as the airflow doesn't connect with deep cold in the Arctic and is in any case replaced by a strong rise in pressure over the UK (1035 mb on Tue 3rd), decayin into a zonal flow later that week. ECM develops the HP a bit further west and does have some colder air making its way south around the 2nd but it doesn't last.

Cold rampers should look at the ens runs as there is agreement there on a sharp cold spell 30 Nov-3 Dec (exc the SW), more than you would expect from the mainstream charts but even that goes back to seasonal average shortly after. The ens show less rain around the 27th than the MetO warnings would suggest, but add in a spike around the 1st for the south,

ECM does look ripe for a snow event or 2 

Genuine question: why does nobody ever post the weather.us UK ECM ensembles? It was the same last year, too...

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

(These update twice a day and have way more info than you can get via other sources).

This is just misleading people I'm afraid. 

No it just doesn't suit your mild / troll agenda.

People are quite capable of looking to see the -7c line all the way down from Western Scotland to Kent. 

In the context of the last 24-36 hours its a massive transformation, the fact you don't even want to comment on that shows that you can't even see it.

It's in Celsius for me, but that's because I changed the options (using the cog under "my account").

Still a mystery to me why nobody else uses those charts....

You can change the settings (under “My Account”) 

The 00z ECM op run is indeed a cold option. I wonder which of the options the 06z GFS op (coming out now) will go for.

I don't call 'deep cold' 24 hours or so  of sub 528 air shown 8 days away that is very likely to get shunted away East pretty quickly from a det. run that is out of kllter from it's own ensembles. I'm pretty sure that your 'deep cold' comment would have been called out pretty quickly on the other side.

Of course the NAO index is a product of surface synoptics so is just another modelled parameter so one follows the other and vice versa.

And as we also know you can have a negative NAO and mild W Europe - they dreaded west based NAO. 

Agreed, these are so good for pinpointing your locality. Why we use anything else from across the channel is a mystery. Although I do still sneak a look at KNMI!

Martin

Oh the irony!!