The natural cycle of the sun's influence with the changing of seasons creates the cooling/warming cycle in the strat over the pole, so yes later in winter when the sun starts to have more of an influence then there is a natural warming trend.

Such a warming in late autumn/early winter (albeit in this current case, a modest warming) is therefore at odds with this natural cycle, but is not necessarily particularly unusual. 2009/10 was a recent example.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

GEFS seems to being showing very cold upper air centred over Iceland in 10 days time

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=7&carte=1

Not totally sure what effect would be if that collapsed (is that right terminology ?) and spewed cold air our way

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 

The strat temperatures are lower than that over the UK right now - very low in fact, below -80C. Maybe worth looking for some polar stratospheric clouds if we get clear skies at any point!

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2019112806/gensnh-0-7-0.png

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Anyone want to put a bet on perturbation 4 verifying?

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-4-1-360.png?6

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Anyone want to put a bet on perturbation 4 verifying?

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-4-1-360.png?6

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Nacreous clouds ? Like cirrus - ice crystals?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

a nice roaring northerly on this evenings GFS.  Been a while since i saw something like this

I can almost see the teletext / ceefax entry (Oh how i miss them)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Indeed but I fear the only roaring will be the wail of despair from the majority who stay dry 😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Indeed but I fear the only roaring will be the wail of despair from the majority who stay dry 😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Indeed but I fear the only roaring will be the wail of despair from the majority who stay dry 😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Indeed but I fear the only roaring will be the wail of despair from the majority who stay dry 😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

At least it should mean temperatures won't be much above the average on the south coast. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That chart looks okay to me? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes, northerlies are a dead loss for snow down here - far  too sheltered.    Too  be honest though, I'll take a crystal clear and cold   northerly airflow with a biting frost at night over the muck we have had to endure in Nov.

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

The one big consolation from that is that a lot of those places which have recently had a lot of flooding rains, will probably be relieved to actually have a break from all of that in they are also in that drier areas under such a northerly set-up although I still don't see that as any consolation for those of us who want to see some snow at the beginning of the actual winter.

That is particularly true in places such as here in Edinburgh where although it has been wetter than average recently, we haven't anything like as much rain as what other places in the UK have had. Added to that as well, is the fact that we are usually always bone dry under those northerly setups due to shelter from the hills and mountains to our north on the other side of the Firth of Forth from here.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Those charts at the end of the GFS are insane and reminiscent of the FI winter of last year, only this year there are better reasons for it to happen

Originally Posted by: ballamar