So nailed on mild then? The election result is about as uncertain as the sun rising tomorrow, sadly.

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The result is a foregone conclusion Neil. Progressive and zonal GFS.

 

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Could flip back to a colder outlook but the trend is towards unsettled weather with close to average temperatures during the middle third of the month. I wouldn't be surprised if flooding is back in the news in the approach to Xmas.

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Pub run special
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_324_1.png

Ive reviewed the last 4 runs of the GFS & across the full day its gone from flat as a pancake 00z to fully amplified split flow on 18z ( for the same timestamp ) fully morphing to the ECM just like it did last week for the current cold snap.

GFS is having a woeful time at the moment with its Eastward bias -

Yet still its gets more air time than the euros that smash it time in time out.

Looking at 18z theres actually pretty much zilch zonal weather till the end.

One only has to look at the shape & displacement of the vortex which shows the westerly component is almost removed at day 10 to understand why zonal isnt going to happen...

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=17&carte=1

Yep, 'plus ca change plus a meme chose' as the French say.

I tend to focus on the ECM ensemble mean for the pattern and GFS out of curiousity past Day 10.  As you say, precious little run-to-run consistency at that range.

 

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Not sure why one should give thumbs up for a futile exercise. Three-month forecasting is mythology, pure and simple. One might as well consult a circus fortune teller. 

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It's just a bit of fun, in the same way as posting GFS charts from FI.

 

Still that signal for a period of cold zonality after a 3-day average to mild spell.  GFS Op very much at odds with the ECM.

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Possibly based on old research where only cons could afford a car and were more committed to vote. The nouveau voter with no previous interest in voting (aka Brexiteers) might be put off by a bit of cold.

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Wrong thread but that wasn’t it.  The local Conservative associations had a better system for canvassing and offering to take people to the polling stations to cast their vote.

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A wintry and wild polling day if this comes about:

Early evening when most people are likely to vote when they get back from work!?? - This of course will change but this unsettled and wild or stormy and snowy theme continues for 12th Dec.

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GFS much like yesterday until Tue 12th i.e HP declining to westerly flow, even NW around 9th; then a deep and cold LP with northerlies 12th - 14th (wasn't shown until 14th at this time yesterday but models steadily moving it earlier since - a worry for election organisers) going back to W/SW flow by 18th

After propping up a HP cell, UK Jetstream resuming generally strong W - E from Thu, first to the N of UK but sinking southwards. Notable loop S-wards 12th/13th allowing cold LP to follow in its wake, then back to W - E the following week.

ECM matches GFS to end of TWO charts at T+240 (Tue 11th) and the last chart has an LP positioned to come south much as GFS

Ens temps oscillate between seasonal average and above to about 8th Dec, the a long period where most but not all runs a degree or two below. Variable amount of pptn 7th onward; snow row totals only significant for N England and Scotland

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Thanks David. I find your objective summaries useful. 

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ECM is encouraging in later stages, where is goes after is possibly zonal but enough in it to think there could be a build of heights to the north. Better to have slightly different Synoptics rather than looking at a mild long fetch SW on the wrong side of the jet.

both ECM and GFS 00z run again gives us a cold and stormy as well as wintry election polling day:

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I'm happy with what's on offer , certainly no blow torch SWlies .

 

Looks ok to me 

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Lot's of cold zonality!! We had that in 2014/15 and 2017/18 winter.

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The Apostrophe Society has now given up, so you can now stop using apostrophes completely, with improved results

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More so in the latter than the former, at least as far as my own area was concerned.

In mid-January 2018 we had about 5-6 consecutive days here of heavy snow showers from a NW airflow which left quite a few inches on the ground, the most snow we had that winter prior to the Beast from the East at the end of Febuary 2018.

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Morning -

Continued enjoyment to be found in the models today as the move to a pattern that can deliver copious amount of snow given the right balance of atlantic moisture V polar air - however of course a nudge in from the azores high could scupper things..

Its a pattern that doesn't usually stay attenuated for to long - but it can be very good - 1996 being the holy grail.

S

...and the double exclamation mark. Where will punctuation inflation take us???

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I'm a firm believer in the adage that everyone should be born with a strict allocation of exclamation marks.

Anyway, GFS 6z once again showing PM potential next week - looks messy, but Scotland could do very well from set-ups like this.

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I see the Met office outlook Sunday 15th-29th (updated this morning) mentions wintry showers, then ends with  a transition to some longer, more settled and colder periods.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 15 Dec - Sunday 29 Dec

Although confidence is low for this period, the unsettled conditions are expected to continue. There will be some rain with interludes of cold but bright weather alongside a risk of showers. There is a continued chance of further wintry showers on high ground in the north. Temperatures will likely tend towards average, or just above, for this time of year. Towards the end of 2019 there is a possibility that we will see a transition to some longer, more settled and colder periods.

 

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I'll be arriving in Scotland from Australia on 14th Dec for 3 weeks. If you could hold that Northerly off by 2 or 3 days , so i can build a snowman with my little fella please.  

Steady as she goes, cool zonality looks a form horse as we progress into the month. Whilst the majority of England and Wales will wonder what all the fuss is about, at least it’s no blowtorch as Marcus has pointed out above.