Model Output Discussion 08/11/19 07:40 >>>>· Page 33

Heavy Weather 2013
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 06:30:54

Looking at the ensembles this morning for the GFS, it appears that there is a risk and reward element. Low pressure to introduce moisture but will it be too warm?

If circumstances are correct and in a certain locations favour we could expect to see sleet or snow in a number of locations next week. Some people will be happy, others will be knashing teeth.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 06:48:11

#802

Upgrade on the GEFS overnight, Election Day snow looking more likely. Snow rows upto 33!

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 07:14:34

#803

ECM also looks like it could be getting pretty snowy by days 9/10.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

ballamar
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 07:29:28

#804

No massive blocks to the east of north but a sinking jet could bring some great weather where looking out the window could be the best forecast. Better the further North you are, expecting some great pictures this month.

Steve Murr
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 07:31:22

#805

Morning - The ECM day 8 > especially 9 & 10 ( as is the GFS ) are extremely rare in the flushing of the vortex directly south over the UK & the total lack of movement eastward across the atlantic of the jet.

At day 10 the weak jet is running SE over the Azores, along towards Lisbon & then up through Spain - Uk Wise very cold especially Northern areas.

Its one of the most unusual charts i've ever seen!

JACKO4EVER
Guest

03 December 2019 07:32:46

#806

Some interest for next week though it is so far off in model terms that some caution is needed.

roadrunnerajn
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 07:48:24

#807

Some interest for next week though it is so far off in model terms that some caution is needed.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Agreed last season we were lead up the garden path with tantalising charts until 120 hrs out in some cases. Saying that I love the hope factor..

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.

DEW
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 07:49:44

#808

Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after.

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 07:57:14

#809

Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after.

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

Originally Posted by: DEW

Another good summary.

I’ve had a look at the Weather.us site and ECM produces snow for mostly higher ground from North Wales and northern England northwards; nothing for the lowland in the Midlands and south. Definitely cold but as it stands not quite there. But certainly different to what we might normally expect.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Gusty
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 08:20:52

#810

Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after.

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

Originally Posted by: DEW

Good summary. The possibility of some early wintry potential circa 9-14th.

Slack flow, cold uppers with a jet to the south all could conspire the make things interesting for the coldies here thanks to evaporative cooling and other factors

The outlook is not without interest.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Downpour
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:00:10

#811

Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after.

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

Originally Posted by: DEW

Shocking charts this morning - if your name is Ian Brown or Brian Gaze (joke, joke!). Mild rampers should look away now.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

David M Porter
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:01:50

#812

Looking at the model runs this morning, I reckon that some of us may need sledges or skis to get to the polling station on Dec 12th!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

03 December 2019 09:03:07

#813

GEFS 00z remains consistent with recent updates and suggests cooler or colder conditions returning next week.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

JACKO4EVER
Guest

03 December 2019 09:07:26

#814

Looking at the model runs this morning, I reckon that some of us may need sledges or skis to get to the polling station on Dec 12th!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

yes quite a shock for some could be in store, however getting this output into the reliable timeframe is the key. Hopefully it won’t be another time when winter is purely lived in model la la land beyond 120

Downpour
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:09:40

#815

Indeed, that’s a fairly strong signal for cold next week. Interesting indeed. When was the last time snow fell on Election Day? Has that ever happened (usually, elections are held in springtime)?

GEFS 00z remains consistent with recent updates and suggests cooler or colder conditions returning next week.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Chingford
London E4
147ft

David M Porter
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:11:44

#816

yes quite a shock for some could be in store, however getting this output into the reliable timeframe is the key. Hopefully it won’t be another time when winter is purely lived in model la la land beyond 120

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Point taken Jacko, although there does seem to be some reasonable run-to-run consistently for this outcome at the moment. As you rightly say though, if the models are still showing this by the time next week gets into the reliable timeframe, then it could well be game on.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

David M Porter
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:14:47

#817

Indeed, that’s a fairly strong signal for cold next week. Interesting indeed. When was the last time snow fell on Election Day? Has that ever happened (usually, elections are held in springtime)?

Originally Posted by: Downpour

I think the BBC said a few weeks back that the last time a General Election was held in December was way back in 1923. I have no idea what that December was like for weather though!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:21:28

#818

I don't think snow has ever fallen on election day. Not in 1923

It would depress turnout, and force only those really engaged to come out

Not sure who that benefits

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

03 December 2019 09:28:06

#819

Shocking charts this morning - if your name is Ian Brown or Brian Gaze (joke, joke!). Mild rampers should look away now.

Originally Posted by: Downpour

I can assure you there is nothing I want more than the prospect of snow in the approach to Xmas. Mild and stormy conditions are very good too. What I don't want is 1030mB pushing up from the south.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

03 December 2019 09:46:28

#820

I can assure you there is nothing I want more than the prospect of snow in the approach to Xmas. Mild and stormy conditions are very good too. What I don't want is 1030mB pushing up from the south.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

That would be OK if it was on its way north to join up with its bigger brother...