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The Beast from the East
03 December 2019 10:41:17

Bitter election day Hopefully the old will stay indoors



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Richard K
03 December 2019 10:45:05
Liking the precipitation plot at 252 hrs. Will definitely happen as shown
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Brian Gaze
03 December 2019 10:45:10

Here's a static snapshot of the GFS 06z snow depth forecast. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 December 2019 10:48:22

When did Chichester last see depths of 5cm let alone 56cm? Allow me to be sceptical (but hopeful nevertheless)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gavin P
03 December 2019 10:50:27


 


December 6th 1923 looks chilly but dry under a weak ridge, maybe an isolated shower in the south east corner



 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I did a post about the weather during past December elections on my website a few weeks ago


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/uk-general-election-weather-forecast-december-2019.php


I'll have to do an update when I get a bit of time now that 12th December in coming into the semi-reliable time frame...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
The Professional
03 December 2019 10:57:28


Here's a static snapshot of the GFS 06z snow depth forecast. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That is a BANK!!! for the ages here in mid-Hants. A once in a lifetime event if it ever occurred as modelled above.

Arcus
03 December 2019 11:08:24

Yesterday's ECM Monthly picks up on the colder theme mid-month before reverting milder:






Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Broadmayne Blizzard
03 December 2019 11:19:43
Repeat of January 1881 if the GFS 06 came off as proposed.
Formerly Blizzard of 78
The Beast from the East
03 December 2019 11:23:23

the good thing about this potential spell is that you have plenty of moisture around and no solar heating to worry about. uppers don't need to be that cold


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
03 December 2019 11:24:24

WOW to 06z GFS.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
03 December 2019 11:24:54


 


That is a BANK!!! for the ages here in mid-Hants. A once in a lifetime event if it ever occurred as modelled above.


Originally Posted by: The Professional 


Back in Jan 2010 some parts of the Hants/Surrey borders got 40cm. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Richard K
03 December 2019 11:36:36
Slight outlier for precipitation in the ensembles for London around the 14th, regrettably
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
The Professional
03 December 2019 11:38:09


 


Back in Jan 2010 some parts of the Hants/Surrey borders got 40cm. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I remember it well Rob as I was working in Hook at the time. The GFS 06z would, I think, be on a wider and potentially even greater scale, hence my hyperbole. All moot of course as it will not happen as shown today, but it's nice both to dream and also to reminisce about the start of the decade.

idj20
03 December 2019 11:43:24

I do think the 11th to 13th on the latest GFS would turn out to be the most likely set up. How do I know that? Kent completely misses out on the snow but still end up with storm force southerly winds anyway.     


Folkestone Harbour. 
Whiteout
03 December 2019 11:46:44
Wow, epic 06z run, not alone in ens either 👍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Downpour
03 December 2019 11:50:33


 


I think the BBC said a few weeks back that the last time a General Election was held in December was way back in 1923. I have no idea what that December was like for weather though!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Was apparently a mild day in 23. So, this could be the first time in British history it has snowed on polling day. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
03 December 2019 11:52:29


 


 I can assure you there is nothing I want more than the prospect of snow in the approach to Xmas. Mild and stormy conditions are very good too. What I don't want is 1030mB pushing up from the south. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Not even a port and mince pie for Great Uncle Barty in Chez Gaze?


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Gandalf The White
03 December 2019 11:59:58


WOW to 06z GFS.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Nice to imagine (provided you're stocked up and going nowhere) but best to regard the likelihood as about the same as a 100-seat Conservative majority...


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


idj20
03 December 2019 12:00:41


 


Was apparently a mild day in 23. So, this could be the first time in British history it has snowed on polling day. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 



If it does come off, it'd probably be remembered as the day when Hell freezes over.  


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gandalf The White
03 December 2019 12:01:24


 


Not even a port and mince pie for Great Uncle Barty in Chez Gaze?


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


I hear Uncle Barty is auditioning for the part of Scrooge, so hopefully he'll be elsewhere in the run up to the festive season.


wink


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
03 December 2019 12:02:39


 


Was apparently a mild day in 23. So, this could be the first time in British history it has snowed on polling day. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


850s around -4c so I'd be surprised if it was mild.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arcus
03 December 2019 12:08:53


 


Was apparently a mild day in 23. So, this could be the first time in British history it has snowed on polling day. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Met Office reports on February 28th 1974 General Election mentioned it being close to freezing for large parts of Wales, Northern England and Scotland, with storm force winds in some parts of Scotland and more than an inch of rain in some parts of England. Given the set-up, I'd say snow falling somewhere in the UK was a given that day:



Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Phil G
03 December 2019 12:12:56
Just say, just say with nine days out the charts go into upgrade run after run so we are left with a nationwide blizzard on 12th December. It's that bad, that only 5-10% of the country can actually get out and vote.

What would happen? Does the result of this mega low turnout count, because if it does we would never hear the end of that either!
ballamar
03 December 2019 12:17:35

Just say, just say with nine days out the charts go into upgrade run after run so we are left with a nationwide blizzard on 12th December. It's that bad, that only 5-10% of the country can actually get out and vote.

What would happen? Does the result of this mega low turnout count, because if it does we would never hear the end of that either!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


 


all counts no reserve days or anything! Why it was a bad idea although the thought is older voters are more likely to get out and vote

Gandalf The White
03 December 2019 12:37:28


 


Met Office reports on February 28th 1974 General Election mentioned it being close to freezing for large parts of Wales, Northern England and Scotland, with storm force winds in some parts of Scotland and more than an inch of rain in some parts of England. Given the set-up, I'd say snow falling somewhere in the UK was a given that day:



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


A quick Google and I discovered that Brian has a page on the weather on election days in the past.


for 1974 it says "28th February 1974:Cold and generally cloudy with rain/sleet/snow pushing into western areas"


 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=tystat&id=928


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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