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xioni2
28 January 2020 15:05:46


 And it's the current rather than cumulative number.


So at the very least the risk of becoming critical is 1/4 but it could be even higher than that.


How many of those in critical will eventually die? If it's, say, 1/2 then the mortality rate would be around 12%.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Have you applied to WHO or any CDC yet? They are missing out of your analysis and foresight.


 

Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 15:06:07


 


https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0128/1111351-coronavirus/


Sorry to repeat this one but the above suggests that transmission is a little easier than that. As I said above, I appreciate that this is anecdotal.


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


That was the example I gave. With respect being stuck in a room with other people all day is far from ‘normal contact’.  It’s quite possible they sat next to each other or were working together during the course.


It would be a concern if you could catch it from someone during brief contact on a bus or train but we aren’t in that situation.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
28 January 2020 15:06:44


 


I'm not going to tell you which country as you will only make me feel worse.  Let's just say it isn't a place famous for its healthcare, albeit there is only one reported case there currently.


I start in Singapore. 


I'll cancel if and when I receive official advice, to do so, from the Foreign Office or the WHO. To do so now would be an embarrassing overreaction, not to mention a huge (and I mean huge) loss of money. I'm not sure if my insurance would cover it. 


While I'm there I will of course take all the precautions necessary, just like I presume Gandalf is doing now, who is also in SE Asia. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Won't you lose more money if you wait longer to cancel?


You start in singapore? I don't like the sound of that at all.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
28 January 2020 15:07:07


 While I'm there I will of course take all the precautions necessary, just like I presume Gandalf is doing now, who is also in SE Asia. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Start with the basics, stop reading Quantum.


Quantum
28 January 2020 15:08:31


 


That was the example I gave. With respect being stuck in a room with other people all day is far from ‘normal contact’.  It’s quite possible they sat next to each other or were working together during the course.


It would be a concern if you could catch it from someone during brief contact on a bus or train but we aren’t in that situation.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


We don't know though do we.


We know so little about this. We could easily be in that situation.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 15:09:30


 


Won't you lose more money if you wait longer to cancel?


You start in singapore? I don't like the sound of that at all.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No I won't. Keep your beak out now please & stop stressing me out. 


If I want any advice from you I'll come and ask for it. 


Ta. 


 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 15:10:39


 


I'm not going to tell you which country as you will only make me feel worse.  Let's just say it isn't a place famous for its healthcare, albeit there is only one reported case there currently.


I start in Singapore. 


I'll cancel if and when I receive official advice, to do so, from the Foreign Office or the WHO. To do so now would be an embarrassing overreaction, not to mention a huge (and I mean huge) loss of money. I'm not sure if my insurance would cover it. 


While I'm there I will of course take all the precautions necessary, just like I presume Gandalf is doing now, who is also in SE Asia. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


We are being sensible but philosophical. There’s absolutely no evidence of a problem here.  Signs have been appearing about travel to China and Wuhan and our hotel has containers of sanitiser on counters so people can clean their hands.


There are some extraordinary over-reactions in this thread.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 15:11:42


 


We don't know though do we.


We know so little about this. We could easily be in that situation.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


If you accept we know so little how are you preaching gloom and doom???

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 15:12:51


 


Start with the basics, stop reading Quantum.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Borrowing from ‘Eats, shoots and leaves’


Stop reading, Quantum....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
28 January 2020 15:13:18


 


If you accept we know so little how are you preaching gloom and doom???


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


As I keep saying, you don't assume the best or even most likely scenario. The question is, is it inconceivable the virus can spread through casual contact. The answer to that question is no.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Chunky Pea
28 January 2020 15:14:44


just like I presume Gandalf is doing now, who is also in SE Asia. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I wonder how he got there? I mean, our children, their children and their children too. 


 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 15:15:52


 


I wonder how he got there? I mean, our children, their children and their children too. 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Chunky Pea
28 January 2020 15:18:02


 


As I keep saying, you don't assume the best or even most likely scenario. 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Which equates, statistically, in assuming nothing. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 15:21:49


 


I wonder how he got there? I mean, our children, their children and their children too. 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Gosh, what a surprise.


I do hope you managed to find a big enough halo for your head.


 


We have family here, not that I need to justify myself to a troll.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
28 January 2020 15:25:03





What did you think I was doing before I posted in this thread? 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


After reading pages of your hysteria, I can only assume you snorted a line of coke

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
28 January 2020 15:26:50


 


Gosh, what a surprise.


I do hope you managed to find a big enough halo for your head.


 


We have family here, not that I need to justify myself to a troll.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Can't even a take light joke. What a tight-arse you are. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
28 January 2020 15:28:33


 


A partial border closure for the UK may be necessary with a complete ban on non-essential travel.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think that starts anyway at 11pm this Friday

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Roger Parsons
28 January 2020 15:34:33


... each week I fill in my bit of data with regard to 'flu-like illnesses on Flusurvey. This is a webtool managed and monitored by Public Health England (PHE) and designed to monitor trends of flu-like illness in the community.


I have mentioned this on TWO before and was met with a deafening silence. Citizen science has an important role to play these days and, putting it crudely, if folks are not doing their bit for one of our national 'flu initatives their comments here ring a bit hollow. Tell me you have filled in your Flusurvey data this week and I'll be the first to sing your praises.


Anyone can participate. It's easy. Go to: https://www.flusurvey.net/


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


There is a lot of speculative chatter on this thread but I'd be interested to know if any of you are contributing to this or any other Flu-surveillance project.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
picturesareme
28 January 2020 15:41:27


 


And it's the current rather than cumulative number.


So at the very least the risk of becoming critical is 1/4 but it could be even higher than that.


How many of those in critical will eventually die? If it's, say, 1/2 then the mortality rate would be around 12%.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


So around the same as the global seasonal flu outbreaks. 


3-5 million cases a year with up to 650,000 deaths.

Perthite1
28 January 2020 15:42:50
The company I work for here in Australia are going to announce there plans for staff returning from China tomorrow or Thursday. As I sit next to a guy who has been over in China for the past 3 weeks who returns on Monday I am concerned. Currently we do not have enough information regarding the virus and there is scepticism regarding the data on infections and fatalities from China. It will be very interesting to see how they proceed. Schools over here are now requesting students that gave been over to China do not attend school for the first 10 days of term which begins on February 3rd.
xioni2
28 January 2020 15:51:59


 So around the same as the global seasonal flu outbreaks. 


3-5 million cases a year with up to 650,000 deaths.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


We are doomed! Stop living now as a precaution.


 

Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 16:17:52


 



Can't even a take light joke. What a tight-arse you are. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


What a moron. You give absolutely no indication that it was a joke - there are emoticons for that purpose.


If you don’t make your tone clear it’s your problem, not mine.


How absolutely predictable that you should compound your carelessness by delivering a gratuitous insult.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
28 January 2020 16:25:08


 There is a lot of speculative chatter on this thread but I'd be interested to know if any of you are contributing to this or any other Flu-surveillance project.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I am not as I don't have any flu symptoms, in fact I haven't had a cold for more than 2 years now.


My luck will run out of course and if Q is right, I'll probably be dead by the end of Feb 


 


 

Roger Parsons
28 January 2020 16:31:28


I am not as I don't have any flu symptoms, in fact I haven't had a cold for more than 2 years now.


My luck will run out of course and if Q is right, I'll probably be dead by the end of Feb 


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


They need the stats on people who DON'T have 'flu too.


That's the point, otherwise what does the data mean? 100% of flu victims have flu?


It's easy - do it now.


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
picturesareme
28 January 2020 16:31:53


 


We are doomed! Stop living now as a precaution.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


There does seem an element of pandemonium in the media around this much like the swine flu of a few years back. What's going to happen when something severe like the Spanish flu strikes again, i fear the Joe public might be by that stage far more dismissive.

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