Remove ads from site

xioni2
28 January 2020 16:38:02


 They need the stats on people who DON'T have 'flu too.


That's the point, otherwise what does the data mean? 100% of flu victims have flu?


It's easy - do it now.


R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I don't usually do what people tell me to do, but I respect my elders (even in this day and age!), so I did the survey.



 

Chunky Pea
28 January 2020 16:45:46


 


What a moron. You give absolutely no indication that it was a joke - there are emoticons for that purpose.


If you don’t make your tone clear it’s your problem, not mine.


How absolutely predictable that you should compound your carelessness by delivering a gratuitous insult.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The jocular tone of my comment was obvious.


But if you can't take being 'insulted', then try to be a little liberal in dishing out needless insults yourself. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
warrenb
28 January 2020 16:46:46
Either take it to PM or move on
Roger Parsons
28 January 2020 16:57:52


I don't usually do what people tell me to do, but I respect my elders (even in this day and age!), so I did the survey.



 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 



You are a star, Xioni. I owe you a pint.


It's amazing how many people make the assumption that epidemiology only needs to measure sick people. For example - you are the only TWO reader who has responded, never mind done it.


I've been doing the survey for some years now and it amazes me how few people choose to help. It's dead easy - they remind you with an email every week over the "flu season" and you fill in their form. The interactive map is interesting too, not least because of the low numbers of responses in some areas. Of course there are other surveys going on and data is flowing from GPs and hospitals etc - but it all completes the picture.


Thinking of beer.... I need to maintain my fluids....


R.


 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Heavy Weather 2013
28 January 2020 17:29:07


 



The jocular tone of my comment was obvious.


But if you can't take being 'insulted', then try to be a little liberal in dishing out needless insults yourself. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Didn't you know that Gandalf is always right 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
picturesareme
28 January 2020 19:53:14


 


I'll cancel if and when I receive official advice, to do so, from the Foreign Office or the WHO. To do so now would be an embarrassing overreaction, not to mention a huge (and I mean huge) loss of money. I'm not sure if my insurance would cover it. 


While I'm there I will of course take all the precautions necessary, just like I presume Gandalf is doing now, who is also in SE Asia. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 Looks like the foreign office has just done that..


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51288672


 

Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 20:08:12


 


 Looks like the foreign office has just done that..


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51288672


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


... to mainland China, not including Hong Kong or Macau.


Which is a fair and proportionate course of action given the current situation. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

The Beast from the East
28 January 2020 20:10:09


 


 


My luck will run out of course and if Q is right, I'll probably be dead by the end of Feb 


 


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


At least you wont have to live through Brexit and Trump's re-election


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
28 January 2020 20:51:47

Worthwhile watching:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBYwUtB83o


 


New world order coming.
Roger Parsons
28 January 2020 21:20:15

"No transparency [has] just left people guessing and panicking."

China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online about origin and scale
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-51271037



Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
28 January 2020 23:52:28

4 cases in Germany now.


All in bavaria and linked with the initial German case.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
29 January 2020 01:03:23

Australia has replicated the virus. We are on the way to developing a vaccine.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Roger Parsons
29 January 2020 07:43:13


"No transparency [has] just left people guessing and panicking."

China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online about origin and scale
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-51271037



Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


And now:


Coronavirus: BA suspends flights to and from mainland China


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51292590


and, following on from Q's post...


Australian lab first outside of China to copy coronavirus, helping vaccine push


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390


Don't hold your breath!


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
29 January 2020 08:07:59


Australia has replicated the virus. We are on the way to developing a vaccine.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 




Just a year away...


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
29 January 2020 08:11:05


"No transparency [has] just left people guessing and panicking."

China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online about origin and scale
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-51271037



Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


The Internet breeds trolls and conspiracy theorists. We shouldn’t be surprised but some of it is just ridiculous. Almost more disappointing is that people believe and disseminate this stuff so that it gains traction.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
29 January 2020 09:04:02


India among top 30 countries at 'high risk' from coronavirus spread, reveals a study.


India is among the top 30 countries at "high-risk" from the spread of the deadly coronavirus, according to a study based on the number of air travellers predicted to arrive in the countries from the worst affected cities in China. Researchers from the University of Southampton in the UK compiled a list of cities and countries they believe are at high risk from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) -- which has killed over 100 people so far, and infected thousands.




New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
29 January 2020 09:08:22
British Airways suspends all flights to/from China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51292590 

Not surprising, I suppose, given the current rate of spread.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Roger Parsons
29 January 2020 09:10:35


The Internet breeds trolls and conspiracy theorists. We shouldn’t be surprised but some of it is just ridiculous. Almost more disappointing is that people believe and disseminate this stuff so that it gains traction.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I think it is brilliant that non-medical folks are interested enough to read up on the subject and to post their thoughts, as I am sure you would agree, Gandalf. As non-meteorologist I am always grateful to the experts here for the tolerant leeway they give me.


There is nothing wrong with asking "what if" or in making a counter case to test an idea on others. However, it remains a truism that the more you get to know the more you realise how much you do not yet know and may never know. I regard myself as a beginner - even though I have been a boffin for 60+ years. A friend in his 80s said to me - I wish I believed in reincarnation - I need 3 lifetimes to learn about everything I want to know. Humility is a useful tool for trolls and conspiracy theorists to cultivate.


When people are posting "derivative facts" here I'd encourage them to try to name their sources - and if something is speculative, why not just say so? It's ok to speculate and say "what if?"


Prediction is a key scientific tool - so can anyone apply their Met skills to looking at the epidemiological data available, doing a some "model-think" - and making a prediction on number of cases, rate of spread, or mortality? It would be great if a weather expert could predict disease behaviour more accurately than the epidemiologists.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
29 January 2020 09:17:30


 


I think it is brilliant that non-medical folks are interested enough to read up on the subject and to post their thoughts, as I am sure you would agree, Gandalf. As non-meteorologist I am always grateful to the experts here for the tolerant leeway they give me.


There is nothing wrong with asking "what if" or in making a counter case to test an idea on others. However, it remains a truism that the more you get to know the more you realise how much you do not yet know and may never know. I regard myself as a beginner - even though I have been a boffin for 60+ years. A friend in his 80s said to me - I wish I believed in reincarnation - I need 3 lifetimes to learn about everything I want to know. Humility is a useful tool for trolls and conspiracy theorists to cultivate.


When people are posting "derivative facts" here I'd encourage them to try to name their sources - and if something is speculative, why not just say so? It's ok to speculate and say "what if?"


Prediction is a key scientific tool - so can anyone apply their Met skills to looking at the epidemiological data available, doing a some "model-think" - and making a prediction on number of cases, rate of spread, or mortality? It would be great if a weather expert could predict disease behaviour more accurately than the epidemiologists.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


As the saying goes, “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”


I’ve found that often the more you know the more you realise what you don’t know.  Sometimes things seem very simple at a superficial level when they are anything but.


I guess one useful parallel with weather prediction would be ensemble data: the ability to tweak the key assumptions and see how that affects the predicted outcome. Maybe that’s already done as it seems so obvious.  


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Roger Parsons
29 January 2020 10:09:28


As the saying goes, “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”


I’ve found that often the more you know the more you realise what you don’t know.  Sometimes things seem very simple at a superficial level when they are anything but.


I guess one useful parallel with weather prediction would be ensemble data: the ability to tweak the key assumptions and see how that affects the predicted outcome. Maybe that’s already done as it seems so obvious.  


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You'd need to ask a present-day epidemiologist what models they now use, Gandalf. There are plenty of departments to be found on the web doing mathematical modelling of disease. No doubt there are some great new courses that cover this interface between weather and disease. It's all come a long way over the past 50 years. Maybe some young met-wizard on TWO can have a go and show this old fart what can be done using Met-stat techniques?


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
29 January 2020 10:09:55

This is very disturbing. Found this on twitter.


 https://www.latestly.com/india/news/coronavirus-outbreak-homeopathy-effective-in-prevention-of-novel-virus-infections-says-ayush-ministry-1501670.html


Advocating homeopathy as a cure to nCov.


Not only is homeopathy quackery BS, but creating homeopathic nCov will spread the infection and cause people to get sick.


Shameful the [censored]promoting this.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Roger Parsons
29 January 2020 10:14:45


This is very disturbing. Found this on twitter. [Link removed]


Advocating homeopathy as a cure to nCov.


Not only is homeopathy quackery BS, but creating homeopathic nCov will spread the infection and cause people to get sick.


Shameful the [censored]promoting this.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But this is very good news, Q! It's natural selection in progress - one of nature's miracles.


Zaps the very folks who promote the ridiculous concept. R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
29 January 2020 10:17:00


 


But this is very good news, Q! It's natural selection in progress - one of nature's miracles.


Zaps the very folks who promote the ridiculous concept. R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Correction: I put the wrong link in that post, I've corrected it now in the OP.


 


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 January 2020 10:17:31


This is very disturbing. Found this on twitter.


 https://www.latestly.com/india/news/coronavirus-outbreak-homeopathy-effective-in-prevention-of-novel-virus-infections-says-ayush-ministry-1501670.html


Advocating homeopathy as a cure to nCov.


Not only is homeopathy quackery BS, but creating homeopathic nCov will spread the infection and cause people to get sick.


Shameful the [censored]promoting this.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The more effective personal hygiene methods are recommended further down the article , so I hope people will scroll that far. I wish they'd recommended those as first priority and then at least a homeopathic top-up wouldn't do any harm


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Quantum
29 January 2020 10:19:16

Papua New Guinea is partially shutting it's borders now.


Again, do not go to SE Asia, there is a very real risk you could end up stuck there.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Remove ads from site

Ads