New study gives R0 of 2.2 (previous data suggests that it has come down from a possible high of nearly 4). This is more comparable now with SARS. So the question is, has the virus become less infectious over time or have the quaratine measures worked to some degree. We do know China's response is vastly superior to how it was with SARS.

The incubation period is reported to also be 5 days in this new study. That is very bad and cause for serious concern. Though I'd expect even though you can be contageous during the asymptomatic period you are probably less infectious.

That probably includes ours.

I have absolutely no faith in the NHS to handle this. In fact this is probably a situation where the US actually handles it better than we do. The US is actually okay when it comes to rare+tropical diseases.

Agreed. I think it’s good the WHO have now declared this an international emergency. There can now be a coordinated effort to deal with this worldwide. 

As yet it remains to be seen how this is developing in other countries. I suspect if by middle

of next week we haven’t seen a significant spread in this places we may be able to say containment has worked.

Just no more screwups.

The Japenese managed to ball up their evacuation by cross infecting a plane of evacuees.

And Australia with that xmas island nonsense.

And the UK was going to be worse than both were it not for an intervention by a PE teacher trapped in Wuhan.

Yes ironically China seems to have done the hard graft in locking everything down as quickly as possible. Other countries need to do the same.

If we do see a surge in cases next week in other countries; we MUST make arrangements to close out boarders with immediate effect.

Q I'm slightly worried that you've now bought a humidifier and added gas heaters into the mix. I'm now more worried about your corporeal incorporation into liquid.

I'll pop round in the morning to check on you.

This is my greatest  concern . 

After years of Tory underfunding, the service is emaciated and barely fit for purpose - people regularly have to wait 3-4 weeks for a Dr appointment and  run of the mill  winter flu grinds the system to a halt. If this becomes widespread in the UK,  I  reckon the NHS will collapse completely,  resulting in the death of vulnerable people with other health problems as well as those suffering from the  virus.

I agree although disagree on the reasons, and don't think underfunding is the main issue. After all the welsh NHS is even worse. I think it's a more fundemental structural and inefficiency problem that puts us leagues behind Europe. Also the fact people treat the NHS like a religion and our biggest acomplishment (the tories and labour are both guilty of this) is also part of the problem. There can be no structural chancges because the NHS is sacrosanct.

Apologies if I've missed an earlier posting of these.

I have been reading them and they seemed helpful and interesting enough to risk reiteration.

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51318246

also
Coronavirus: What it does to the body
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51214864

Coronavirus: How worried should we be?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

Roger

dont worry. Maunders son in law will save the day. Boris is building 40 new hospitals in 2 days 

in poor countries like India the lower class have high mortality rates from regular disease anyway,  so the government will be able to cover it up easily  

What do you reckon the chances are that the private system has the capacity (or the will) to take up the slack?

Very early days but there is some definite divergence from the exponential appearing in the most recent data.

So fitting an exponential function on the cases up until around the 27th you would expect there to be about 15400 confirmed cases by the 30th. There were only 9042.

In fact the increase in total cases from the 29th to the 30th was actually less than from the 28th to the 29th (1331 compared to 1737)

Keeping in mind these figures do not represent the true spread of the illness, it is at least something positive that we may no longer be seeing exponential growth. But again as I say, it's extremely early days.

The same is true of the deaths. Using data prior to the 27th you would have expected about 450 deaths by the end of the 30th. There were only 213.

From the link:

Most of the 99 patients were middle-aged, with an average age of 56 - and 67 of them were men.

That should put a damper on UIA?

Predominantly male because they’re largely people who were employed at the market where the virus outbreak started.

However that may be due more to social behaviours than pathology.

But so are contributions to UIA

(Yes, I had read the rest of the article and the analysis - just trying to extract a little humour from a menacing situation)

LOL

Still in reality not that menacing, unless you’re in China. Here in Singapore they’ve sold out of masks and hand sanitizer and a lot more people are wearing masks but that’s it at the moment.

The next few weeks will be critical. As others have said, the issue is countries like India with poor healthcare. I don’t see Singapore or the UK at risk in the short-term. 

Plenty of paranoia in the U.S.A on Youtube on facing the Coronavirus outbreak although many still think it is the Beer.

A few angry callers on Radio Merseyside this morning about the quarantine facility being the staff accommodation at Arrowe Park Hospital on the Wirral. A fair bit of NIMBYism on display - although if reports that staff were given just 24 hours to vacate their residential accommodation, it's not acceptable.