Credit to you for bothering to support York City!!!

Always have since 1984 Brian. I feel it's a good analogy to the UK, stick by your country as it falls ever downward in the global leagues.

This figure discussed on 'More or Less'  on  Radio 4 Friday. The figure seemed to have come from a tweet by an American virologist who fairly quickly withdrew it (on grounds that it was based on a small initial sample) but not before it had escaped on to social media. He could have picked it up from the link you gave; the source of his info wasn't clear.

'More or Less' investigated and best value seemed to be about 2.8 but likely to be revised as more data became available.

The figure I'm quoting came from a new pre published paper, not a tweet.

I do have some questions on the credibility of the figure, however I don't think it should be so easily dismissed.

And for the sake of balance I have also pointed out other studies that suggest an R0 figure much lower.

Yes, but if you read the text it does, as DEW confirms, suggest a very small sample and two key assumptions that are absolutely critical to the R0 number.

As it doesn't seem to fit with the trend line of infections I'm inclined to regard it as, in ensemble language, an unsupported outlier.

Helpful, Q - I was about to ask. R

And when those specialised masks run out

Probably the most reliable summary so far
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

It's lengthy but suggests a peak in China around late April,  containment and hygiene measures reduce the peaks but could actually extend the length of the outbreak.
Outside China it may be possible to contain it but smaller scale outbreaks are inevitable and only need one 'super spreader'

India?

I doubt the government will be honest about any outbreak. They cant afford to prevent travel and commerce

I see. But I go back to what I said at the beginning. Is the infection any worse than a normal bad flu? Most people who get it recover without a vaccine.

I still don't understand why this is such a big story.

The only thing I can conclude is that there is a risk of mutation. We don’t currently have a vaccine and it’s the increased pressure on health services that have an significant impact.

One thing to bear in mind is that this virus does have some functional groups that are similar to HIV which means alot of the anti viral medication for HIV that we already have is likely effective to some degree. Indeed I believe a few of the cases in the US were sucessfully treated with anti viral HIV medication.

The 'flu vaccine offered each year is the result of a best-shot prediction by WHO, allowing time for the manufacturing process. Here is the story if you are interested.
https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2019/10/04/flu-vaccination-the-main-things-to-know-about-the-2019-programme/

Data is constantly being collected world wide and strains of 'flu monitored. Research projects involving members of the public help to get an overview. I have mentioned Flusurvey, where individuals in the UK can report on their health status for "Influenza-like illnesses". It is free to join, easy to do, and they want to encourage as many people as possible to do it. As far as I know, only 2 members of TWO are doing it, and I'm one. Tell me if I'm wrong. I did ask.
Please have look at their website and consider giving a few minutes of your time each week this 'flu-season to let them know if you are well or infected. The questions are simple to answer. The map is interesting.
https://flusurvey.net/

Roger

Asymptomatic carriers are the worst ones. At least someone who displays the symptoms can be identified fairly quickly. Someone who is asymptomatic could infect dozens before the infection is discovered, as the original post suggests.

The question now is for the WHO to work out roughly what percentage of cases are asymptomatic, so the public can be warned. I accept that will be no easy feat though.

To be honest, I've not followed this story much. I do agree that it doesn't seem particularly severe, and is a bit like flu. However as HW said, it does have to be monitered for mutations, which can make it a lot more deadly. There's also the risk of it causing loing-term health problems for people who've had it, so it's best to be safe.

Note china is likely undereporting on the mortality rate.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Farchive.is%2FObawP

I'd suggest figures floating round of a mortality rate of 2-4% are quite optimistic. Think something much higher on the order of 10% is likely. The videos of people collapsing in the street are caused by organ hemorrhage which seems to be a sympton in the worst cases of the virus that has also gone largelly unreported by the state media.

There are about 150 reported cases of the virus outside of China and 1 death so far. IMHO 10% sounds like alarmist nonsense but we shall see.

Relatively measured estimates suggests a higher virlity than normal flu and a much higher mortality. Possibly up to 100 times more dangerous than normal flu.

I mean that is reassuring but I'm not sure the lag has fully been acounted for yet. The coronovirus does take a while to kill you.

Also a differential mortality is, perhaps, unsuprising given that treatement is effective (even if it's only the symptoms) so you would expect the mortality to be higher in China where they are being completely overrun vs somewhere like the US where they are dealing with a handful of cases.

The higher mortality is the one we should be worried about though if it turns into an epidemic here.

What exactly is the "treatment" that you are talking about?

Oxygen, antivirals, antifungals, antibiotics, hydration, immunoglobin, e.c.t.

Stuff that can't be done at home, some stuff that needs a specalist facility.

How many of those 150ish people have received the specialist treatment you are talking about? 

Don't know.

Would guess all US and European cases at the very least but probably most, if not all, of the others too.