Reports Thailand has tried HIV anti viral medication with some sucess.

 

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Recovered overtakes deaths for the first time today.

 

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Yes, sounds like a potential lifeline. I don't know much about the medication but would assume it's easily dispensed and administered. 

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If the medication is already used widely and routinely then you would have thought it would make things alot easier. The reports from Thailand seem even more dramatic than the previous ones I'd read about, claims that it caused dramatic improvement within 24 hours.

Also seems Thailand may have one of the highest case/recovery rates at all sitting at 37% (about 10x that of China)

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Yes I remember catching swine flu. Came on so fast to the point I couldn't stand by the end of the day and was vomiting too. The next day I called the special phone line and had a friend pick me up some Tamiflu. Within 24-48 hrs I had improved greatly.

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Seems we may have also gone an entire day without adding another country to the list.

 

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Am I right in thinking this virus has a protein coating? If so then viruses like this are sometimes easier to fight if you can break down this coating. I think anti virals tend to be more effective in those instances.

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All viruses AFAIK have protein coats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capsid

Some proteins will be more readily picked up as foreign by the immune system

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The reality of The Coronavirus in Wuhan. Shows cases almost certainly massively under reported.  

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-wuhan.html&ved=2ahUKEwiwhpuL7LTnAhU9URUIHU9kDb8QxfQBMAF6BAgGEAg&usg=AOvVaw3IaZuUezx_9Ib_sMFEVsWy

 

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Ms An doesn't sound very ill to me. She queued for 7 hours and drove around the region with her son. Normal flu would be severe enough to stop this. Ms An is now resting at home which is probably what she should have been doing all along. To me that highlights what happens when people panic. Panic is spread by unqualified experts on the internet. We have one or two here. 

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Personally I think you are entitled to panic if you live in Wuhan at the moment. No reason to panic here yet.

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Mr An's case raises an obvious question:

If you have a fever but are still up and about what is the best course of action?

i) Seek medical treatment which a) may not be effective and b) may expose you to the the corona virus (or other viruses) because you go to a hospital / clinic where there are many patients who are definitely infected

ii) Stay at home and keep hydrated. If your condition continues to deteriorate seek medical help

Of course in the case of Ms An we know nothing about her background health which may or may not be relevant. 

 

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The organisation I work for has several offices in China and staff moving between there and the UK for work is part of normal business.

Last week, a ban on international staff travel was put in place.

 

If I'm honest, the part which worries me most is using the tube in London, especially now the carriages are not separated on some lines and a sneeze can blow right through all 8 cars of the train.

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https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-climb-to-15-million-with-54-pediatric-deaths-recorded-in-201920-season 

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While the figures from China are somewhat suspect it's interesting that Hubei is by far the worst affected with other areas not seeing many more than outside countries.
Hopefully in the less affected areas they are still on top of it rather than under-reporting for any reason.

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I still think the chances of a major outbreak in the UK are low. But what's happening in China is truly extraordinary and in the epicentre genuinely terrifying. 

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Again the reason this is a massive story is because of what it could do and not what it has done. Let's say China and the rest of the world did nothing . A very low guessestimate would be 5% of the world's population get it and 2% of them die thats 7.7million dead. On top of the half a million who die every year of 'standard' flu.
 
 
 

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(Reuters) - The United States has taken actions that create and spread fear following a coronavirus outbreak in China, instead of offering any significant assistance, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday.

The United States was the first nation to suggest partial withdrawal of its embassy staff, and the first to impose a ban on Chinese travelers, said ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying.

“All it has done could only create and spread fear, which is a bad example,” Hua told an online news briefing, adding that China hoped countries would make judgements and responses that were reasonable, calm and based on science.

“It is precisely developed countries like the United States with strong epidemic prevention capabilities and facilities that have taken the lead in imposing excessive restrictions contrary to WHO recommendations,” Hua said.

And is that a bad thing? Obviously its awful if someone you know dies, but most of the deaths are elderly people and those who are already ill.  The strong survive

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That's one way to induce coughing I guess

We continue to see a departure from the exponential in confirmed cases.

If this data is real, there is alot to be optimistic about. However it may be the reason it no longer looks like it should may be because of underreporting.

It's hard to know how seriously to take the sporadic reports that China has completely lost control and the government is covering it up. It's believable but it can't be verified.

 

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Also what if the virus gets to those awful concentration camps in the west?

There is no evidence China is doing anything to protect it's uighur citizens. But then we shouldn't be suprised that a country that puts it's own population in concentration camps is not trustworthy.

 

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Also one other thing, people complaining about my 10% figure should know that is on the low side compared to some estimates in the emerging literature.

 

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Part of a study on epidemic containment from a recent paper.

We can see the probability of preventing an epidemic assuming a SARS like transmission. Note this is number of independant introductions. So the UK currently sits at 1 confirmed (two people infected but same independent source).

As it stands, then, there is still a 90% chance of preventing an epidemic here assuming there are no more independent introductions.

Things are not looking good in the states though. 11 cases, and probably more than 3 independent introductions.

 

 

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