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Quantum
03 February 2020 13:37:17

Another recent R0 estimate.



 


 


R0 probably between 1.5 and 4.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 February 2020 13:39:49


 


And is that a bad thing? Obviously its awful if someone you know dies, but most of the deaths are elderly people and those who are already ill.  The strong survive


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Any decent society has to do all it can to look after all its citizens. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Justin W
03 February 2020 14:12:06


Another recent R0 estimate.



 


 


R0 probably between 1.5 and 4.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Going purely on the figures in today's papers, the suggestion is that the mortality rate is somewhere around 2.1%.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
03 February 2020 14:26:46


 


Going purely on the figures in today's papers, the suggestion is that the mortality rate is somewhere around 2.1%.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


You get about 2% if you divide the deaths by the confirmed case, but you can't do that because at the point a prospective death became a confirmed case there were fewer confirmed cases. So you have to account for the lag from confirmation to death. Studies that have done this report figures much much higher than 2%.


So crudely, if it takes about 7 days to kill you from being confirmed which seems to be about the right ball park performing the same crude calculation gives you a mortality rate of about 13%.


 


Another crude thing you can do is look at the recovered cases. It takes even longer to recover than it takes you to die, therefore using the recovered ratio provides an upper bound.


So 2% should be viewed as a lower bound, while the upper bound is 50%. The 50% figure assumes no lag between death and recovery, while the 2% assumes no lag between confirmed and death. The reality is it will be somewhere in between those two figures. No one knows exactly where though; probably much closer to 2% than 50%.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
03 February 2020 14:34:12


So 2% should be viewed as a lower bound, while the upper bound is 50%. The 50% figure assumes no lag between death and recovery, while the 2% assumes no lag between confirmed and death. The reality is it will be somewhere in between those two figures. No one knows exactly where though; probably much closer to 2% than 50%.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Is anyone going to up Quantum's 50%? Going..going...


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
03 February 2020 14:38:13


 


Is anyone going to up Quantum's 50%? Going..going...


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I never said it was 50%, I only mentioned that figure because it has the same problems as the 2% figure, does not account for the lag time.


50% assumes that it takes the same amount of time to recover as it does to die, which is not true. It takes longer to recover


2% assumes that a death happens instantly on the point of confirmation which is also not true.


 


Note that if you performed the same death/current confirmed calculation during the earlier part of the SARS epidemic you would also have got the 2% figure. SARS ended up being 10%.


I don't understand why you are mocking this. Doesn't seem all that funny to me.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
03 February 2020 14:45:21


Note that if you performed the same death/current confirmed calculation during the earlier part of the SARS epidemic you would also have got the 2% figure. SARS ended up being 10%.


I don't understand why you are mocking this. Doesn't seem all that funny to me.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


That's not what I'm mocking.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Essan
03 February 2020 18:53:26

A British man living in Wuhan has told how he recovered from the virus and plans to stay in the Chinese city.

Teacher Connor Reed, 25, from Llandudno in north Wales, contracted the virus last December but initially thought it was a cold.

"It sounded like I was breathing through a paper bag. And it was at that point that I thought, OK this is serious," he told BBC Radio 4's PM programme.

"I went to the hospital and they did a whole manner of tests over the course of two days. Once the results came back they said, 'yes you've got an infection and you should go home and rest'. And they gave me a Ventolin inhaler which worked really, really well."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51358742 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Ulric
03 February 2020 19:51:33
Ah but he comes from Llandudno. If you can recover from that, you can recover from anything.
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Roger Parsons
03 February 2020 21:33:12

Ah but he comes from Llandudno. If you can recover from that, you can recover from anything.

Originally Posted by: Ulric 



I considered writing you a limerick, Ulric, but it was too dire to post!


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
03 February 2020 22:32:49

Another  2.3k or so cases in Hubei.


Showing no signs of slowing down there, although it still isn't exponential either.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
04 February 2020 00:19:17

The impression I get is that things are very bad in Hubei, less bad in other parts of China and the rest of the world. Number of new cases outside china declines for the 3rd day in a row.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
04 February 2020 00:53:05

Wow this is potentially a gamechanger (in a good way)


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong


Some of the evidence of asymptomatic transmission is under dispute.


I should point out that the authors of the paper cannot be blamed, because in a rush to get the study out there mistakes are liable to be made.


So the evidence of asymptomatic transmission is weaker than originally thought. However this adendum shouldn't be taken to definitively show the opposite either. We should still assume it is transmissable without symptons.


 


Will clarify that the response in light of this seems to be that asymptomatic transmission is still 'highly likely'


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
04 February 2020 06:50:32

Macao shuts down its gambling industry for it least 2 weeks 60% of its economy, it only has 10 confirmed cases.  It wouldn't do this for nothing,  obviously genuinely scared of what this virus can do if it gets out of control.


Also South Korea reporting a new case of a women who travelled to Thailand not China.  Is Thailand under reporting cases, obviously a major outbreak would devastate its tourist  industry. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 February 2020 07:22:24


The impression I get is that things are very bad in Hubei, less bad in other parts of China and the rest of the world. Number of new cases outside china declines for the 3rd day in a row.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But the first death in Hong Kong reported this morning


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
speckledjim
04 February 2020 08:48:53
Belgium has reported its first case, someone who was flown out of Wuhan. Still seems to be mostly a Chinese problem and the rest of the world seems to have a good handle on stopping it from spreading too much in their countries.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
04 February 2020 09:26:34

Belgium has reported its first case, someone who was flown out of Wuhan. Still seems to be mostly a Chinese problem and the rest of the world seems to have a good handle on stopping it from spreading too much in their countries.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


For now anyway. But we should not be complacent.


If we look at Germany there are 12 cases. All of them seem to be related to the same independent case in Bavaria. The single spanish case in Gran Canaria is also related to the Bavarian ground zero.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
04 February 2020 09:27:58

If you want some good news the proportional increase in cases has decreased for the 7th day in a row. Now at 19% from a high of 64%.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Roger Parsons
04 February 2020 09:43:27


If you want some good news the proportional increase in cases has decreased for the 7th day in a row. Now at 19% from a high of 64%.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


This is in no small part to the stringent management of the Host, ourselves. It does not suggest the Agent is any less virulent or capable of a flare up if we relax our grip on our own behaviour. Nevertheless, we have bought ourselves useful time. I hope we manage to use it wisely.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Maunder Minimum
04 February 2020 10:11:07

An unanticipated consequence of coronavirus - a slump in crude oil prices:


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51353146


 


New world order coming.
Saint Snow
04 February 2020 10:24:26


An unanticipated consequence of coronavirus - a slump in crude oil prices:


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51353146


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Every cloud!


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
04 February 2020 10:55:32

Suggestions hong kong could become a big risk as it's easily acessible to people trying to escape from the pandemic.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
04 February 2020 11:07:10

Surely the first thing they should have done would have been to ban cruise ship holidays - an ideal breeding ground for the virus:


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/japan/index.html


"...


Japan has quarantined a cruise ship with 3,711 people on board after a former passenger was infected with coronavirus. 


Passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess were being tested for the virus today with eight people showing symptoms such as fever. 


An 80-year-old passenger who left the ship in Hong Kong on January 25 has since tested positive for the virus, which has killed 425 people in China


Quarantine specialists in hazmat suits boarded the vessel today in Yokohama Bay where the ship is expected to remain for at least 24 hours.


..."


 


 


New world order coming.
bowser
04 February 2020 11:26:06


An unanticipated consequence of coronavirus - a slump in crude oil prices:


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51353146


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Anticipated since they shut down Hubei to be fair!

Ally Pally Snowman
04 February 2020 12:11:26

20 odd cases confirmed outside China today including 6 in Singapore and 6 in Thailand.  Apparently Thailand is the top international destination for Chinese tourists. The new Thai cases include a couple that went to Japan and two taxi drivers none of which went to China.


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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