Going purely on the figures in today's papers, the suggestion is that the mortality rate is somewhere around 2.1%.
Originally Posted by: Justin W
You get about 2% if you divide the deaths by the confirmed case, but you can't do that because at the point a prospective death became a confirmed case there were fewer confirmed cases. So you have to account for the lag from confirmation to death. Studies that have done this report figures much much higher than 2%.
So crudely, if it takes about 7 days to kill you from being confirmed which seems to be about the right ball park performing the same crude calculation gives you a mortality rate of about 13%.
Another crude thing you can do is look at the recovered cases. It takes even longer to recover than it takes you to die, therefore using the recovered ratio provides an upper bound.
So 2% should be viewed as a lower bound, while the upper bound is 50%. The 50% figure assumes no lag between death and recovery, while the 2% assumes no lag between confirmed and death. The reality is it will be somewhere in between those two figures. No one knows exactly where though; probably much closer to 2% than 50%.
Edited by user
03 February 2020 14:29:47
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Reason: Not specified
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.