Surely not going to happen. At any point in time there are probably approaching half a million customers on cruise ships, and well over 100,000 staff. If you're going to do that, you may as well ground all aeroplanes and shut all hotels as well.

If the virus isn't adequately contained and becomes pandemic so it's not just China that is the risk, then trying to prevent its spread becomes impossible. Will society effectively shut down as a result?

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Good blog entry explaining why the mortality rate is much higher than 2%.

http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/

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Some semi log plots illustrate the deviation from the exponential well.

A straight line on a semi log is an exponential. We can see though that the lines are curving towards the horizontal which is a good sign. The effect is even more pronounced for the rest of the world.

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Yes, the knock on effects of this  will be felt more.  The son of a work colleague  has a company that makes face masks  - he should be doing really well ...... but he now can't get the   stuff to make them from (made in China !). Production has stopped !

 

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Don't worry, British innovation will prevail.

We'll soon have a way to make facemasks out of cobwebs and diesel particulates.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51357030 

"At the moment, we'll have no products to sell and we could miss Fashion Week in Europe," says Xuzhi Chen, a fashion designer who runs just one of the UK businesses affected by the coronavirus outbreak.

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Now hear there are 10 cases on board a cruise ship. Hope its not the one Caz is on

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51381594  also gives summary of case outside China.

It reads as if most of the cruise passengers were Chinese or Japanese.

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I don't think so, I think Caz was doing Vietnam etc. This cruise liner's schedule is for Japan and Taiwan.

More comprehensive information here on nationalities of those infected and what will happen to the passengers: https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

Glad to see that passengers on the next two cancelled cruises are getting a full refund and credit for another future cruise. We're going on our first cruise with this operator in August (Rome to Athens).

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The WHO should have banned cruises, especially in the Far East, from the outset. Daft allowing thousands of people to live  in close proximity for a floating holiday during a pandemic.

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On the contrary, there should be virus themed cruises: "Experience the thrill of a virus infected cruise ship"

All it will take is one rush-hour cough on the Circle Line.

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It's significant China is largely refusing help from overseas - it's almost certainly because they are hoping to at least give the impression of getting on top of it.
They aren't, it's a hundred times worse than the official figures are showing, and their medical facilities are in chaos
It gets ever harder to allow outside help when it will immediately become clear the extent of the deception.
Inexplicably the WHO is simply parroting official figures from Chinese Authorities which are clearly being under-reported for a variety of reasons.
Frankly this is irresponsible as is making comparisons with normal seasonal flu.
Another likely case in York late today, might be confirmed (or not) tomorrow.

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I'd say it's unlikely. About 500 people have been tested so far and only 2 came back positive.

 

But yes I agree things are much worse in China than the official figures imply. And it seems to be taking hold now in other parts of SE Asia such as hong kong, Japan, Singapore and Thailand.

 

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Interesting how the WHO has criticised Britain's advice for all Brits to leave China.

Hopefully the embers won't start a fire here.

 

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Probably a bit late - most of those who could have and/or wanted to leave will have done so. I was talking to a friend of mine whose son and son's wife are working in Kunming in the far SW. It's several hundred miles to the nearest international airport in China so not an option with the travel restrictions (Hanoi is nearer but that's over the border so restriction there, too)

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Good piece here:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Key takeouts

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about 2019-nCoV because it's so new. This means 2019-nCoV is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. 

..........

The death rate for 2019-nCoV is still unclear, but it appears to be higher than that of the flu. Throughout the outbreak, the death rate for 2019-nCoV has been about 2%. Still, officials note that in the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Homeland Security (HHS), said during a news briefing on Jan. 28. The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said. 

 

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It is difficult to see how moving potentially infected people all over the globe in aircraft with recirculating cabin air helps to control infection.

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Cases are definitely being under-reported in China, as is the death rate. Plenty of anecdotal cases where patients could not be admitted to hospital due to lack of staff/beds - they fall sick and are not included in the official stats, plus if they die, the death certificate does not specify coronavirus as the cause. Examples shown on the BBC news last night.

 

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In one of the more reliably documented cases ....... full recovery after just a few days.  No details on what, if any, medication was used though. 

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finlands_first_coronavirus_patient_released_from_hospital_symptom-free/11193661


I get the impression 2019-nCoV is either very serious/deadly or not much more than a bad cold, depending on circumstances .....


btw I also see there's a major 'flu epidemic in France just now.   So best avoid going there.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/index.php/French-news/Flu-epidemic-declared-across-whole-of-France

 

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Yes.   I applaud China for taking a tough line on this.  You can't imagine that an outbreak in The West would be easy to stop - can you imagine (say) putting somewhere   like Birmingham on lock down ?

 

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You are both absolutely right - "in quarantine" is a bit like virginity. You can't be "almost".

Roger

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A third case of Corona virus has been detected within the UK. No confirmation on Location

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Exc: PM’s dad Stanley Johnson met Chinese ambassador, passed on concerns about Boris Johnson reaction to Coronavirus – then accidentally emailed the BBC with the details - more on @BBCr4today

— Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) February 6, 2020

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