theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
04 February 2020 10:26:18
Is 8 days too far out to give an advanced warning that storm looks life threatening
Gooner
04 February 2020 10:34:58


Not pretty

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
04 February 2020 10:39:04


One thing is for sure we are in for the lot in the next 10 days - Blizzards - storm force winds - horrendous driving conditions - possible road closures 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Saint Snow
04 February 2020 10:56:10



One thing is for sure we are in for the lot in the next 10 days - Blizzards - storm force winds - horrendous driving conditions - possible road closures 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


I just wish it was all about 500-1,000 miles further south


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
04 February 2020 11:15:18

Is 8 days too far out to give an advanced warning that storm looks life threatening

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


GFS certainly seems keen on it, ECM has it a bit less severe. GFS has been fairly consistent with the strongest winds across Wales and into the Midlands but from run to run it varies north or south a bit. The 6Z has it a touch south again but not quite as strong, still with 90mph gusts though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
04 February 2020 11:26:23
Its funny how when a system is forecast to our west, it maintains its position on susbequent runs.

If the system develops over us with cold embedded, it progressively shifts east or south.

Very rarely do we see a direct hit with storm and wintryness. We always just get clipped when its a wintery storm.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Ally Pally Snowman
04 February 2020 11:30:05

Is 8 days too far out to give an advanced warning that storm looks life threatening

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


Still a long way out, looks vicious on GFS though. Think Meto will wait until Saturday ,if its still in course , for any warnings. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
04 February 2020 11:31:49


 


GFS certainly seems keen on it, ECM has it a bit less severe. GFS has been fairly consistent with the strongest winds across Wales and into the Midlands but from run to run it varies north or south a bit. The 6Z has it a touch south again but not quite as strong, still with 90mph gusts though.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Still off the scale


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gooner
04 February 2020 11:36:25


 


 


Still a long way out, looks vicious on GFS though. Think Meto will wait until Saturday ,if its still in course , for any warnings. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Was mentioned on the Beeb last night

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
04 February 2020 12:02:30


 


Was mentioned on the Beeb last night


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Specific warnings though I think will wait until Saturday at the earliest.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
04 February 2020 12:12:05


 


 


Specific warnings though I think will wait until Saturday at the earliest.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes agreed - if it carries on as per GFS it does not look good 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
04 February 2020 12:14:46


 


Yes agreed - if it carries on as per GFS it does not look good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Indeed GFS at the moment is comparable to The Burn's Day storm of January 1990. Not good.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
04 February 2020 12:53:07


 


Yes agreed - if it carries on as per GFS it does not look good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It will - 9 times out of 10 - get moderated and/or change position and timing as we approach the five day threshold. At the moment it’s just an ‘idea’ in cyberspace so advanced warnings are not possible.


 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
04 February 2020 14:03:02


 


It will - 9 times out of 10 - get moderated and/or change position and timing as we approach the five day threshold. At the moment it’s just an ‘idea’ in cyberspace so advanced warnings are not possible.


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Indeed, would be a remarkable forecasting coup if it next week's mid-week set up is carried forward to the moment right down to the letter.

But for now, what a depressing outlook. The only crumb of comfort I can derive is Jan and Feb '14 were already extremely wet with an unusually high number of wind storm events, it was pretty relentless where we were already battered and brushed (even Dawlish is still recovering from the broken sea wall) by mid-February while this current winter so far has been relatively benign including high pressure for most of this week - although we have had a wetter than average November and December.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gooner
04 February 2020 14:29:18


 


It will - 9 times out of 10 - get moderated and/or change position and timing as we approach the five day threshold. At the moment it’s just an ‘idea’ in cyberspace so advanced warnings are not possible.


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The previous 9 were moderated , this is the 10th


 


Hold on to your hat 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hungry Tiger
04 February 2020 14:32:02

Keep us alll posted on this one - I wonder if this might be the biggest gale since 2007 or even 2002.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
04 February 2020 15:48:29

You can see why that low has the potential to bomb so rapidly - just look at that temperature gradient off Newfoundland where it is set to form. From -16C to +8C in about 300 miles.


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JACKO4EVER
04 February 2020 16:05:43


You can see why that low has the potential to bomb so rapidly - just look at that temperature gradient off Newfoundland where it is set to form. From -16C to +8C in about 300 miles.


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


this scenario seems to rear its head most winter, especially so in the last few years. 

ballamar
04 February 2020 16:06:21
Winding up to unleash hell

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_132_1.png

Gonna get windy
Rob K
04 February 2020 16:40:12
The Wednesday storm doesn't really develop as much on the 12Z GFS but there is another monster a few days later, reaching 930mb to the north of Scotland.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
04 February 2020 16:44:06

The Wednesday storm doesn't really develop as much on the 12Z GFS but there is another monster a few days later, reaching 930mb to the north of Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


the energy if there where/when is fun to watch

Russwirral
04 February 2020 16:51:54

Hints of pressure building over the pole on this run. The UK remains inside a warm zonal feed, but I wouldnt take that at face value.

Some minor background potential starting to emerge here


 


Netweather GFS Image


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
04 February 2020 16:55:09
Definitely some more hints of heights trying to rise a little over Greenland. Looking at the NH view it seems the PV might be coming under a bit more pressure? Or maybe wishful thinking...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
04 February 2020 16:55:31

Hints of pressure building over the pole on this run. The UK remains inside a warm zonal feed, but I wouldnt take that at face value.

Some minor background potential starting to emerge here

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


I’m not sure many people would describe this as warm https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_147_1.png


Perhaps cool and mild interludes at most? A very unsettled outlook but too soon to pin down many details.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
04 February 2020 18:46:33


 


I’m not sure many people would describe this as warm https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_147_1.png


Perhaps cool and mild interludes at most? A very unsettled outlook but too soon to pin down many details.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes a proper lazy wind forecast on Monday.


 


I must say though I do find it bizarre how the air can blow across the warm Atlantic for a couple of thousand miles and still give temepratures close to zero in Scotland, and yet on the relatively short track across the UK it manages to reach 8 degrees by the time it hits the south coast. Where does all that heat come from?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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