Nothing much of note here as we head into Feb. I continue to think this winter could make the top 10 for mildness.

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A step in the right direction in the medium term in terms of cold if that’s what you’re after. A subtle, small and unclear step but a step nonetheless : http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

I would be surprised if the ECM shows the equivalent of a 60% on the snow rows here on the 27th.

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ECM is as good a run as we've seen this winter (slim pickings).  Positives from this day 9 FI chart is how far south the HP cell is (N Africa) and the jet remains largely to the S of the UK in the latter stages.  I'm encouraged, as users of Scottish Ski resorts should be.

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Yes not looking good for cold and snowy spells. So Brian do you still think there could be something wintry for all after mid February? Or any cold snap or cold spell this winter?

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It would be pretty rare for the Euro high set-up to last for the entire three months of winter. Almost unprecedented in fact. There are certainly signs of colder incursions into Europe as we head towards February but lack of consistency in the models is frustrating.

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Comes to something when a zonal chart is described as the best chart of the winter in mid- late January. 

That's where we are at.  And I think we had perhaps  best dial down our expectations for the years to come. 

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Wow, an actual ‘winters are over, full stop’ post.

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LOL - Dramatic stuff eh? Weather is about synoptics. Get the right source and it's game on. It may not happen this winter but things change quickly so some perspective is needed (I know, I know, it's wasted in here! ) 

There has been plenty of very cold air up north this year. Just been impossible to get any of it this far south. 

Good synoptics would still deliver the goods. 

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Of course good Synoptics will deliver - even in these 1.1 degree warmer times than a pre industrial world, but it is fair to say that good Synoptics are getting rarer. Look I am too near to 60 to throw a stone past the gap, so when I was a young lad, the world was only 0.5 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times, and guess what, we got more cold episodes and they lasted longer. It was common for snow to hang about "waiting for the next lot" we used to say. That's less likely now, but like the beast from the east, if you get the Synoptics right - you'll get snow that really settles on low ground - even in Match. It's not the first snowless winter and it won't be the last, but it is likely that these warmer winters will become ever more common - and the rate of change is speeding up.

I still think we might get a toppler at least in Feb. In zonal years, the cold stays locked up above the jet and does not spill out, but as it is still dark 24 hours up there it's getting colder still. Eventually it does destabilise and you do get really good Easter incursions - and as per the Beast, this can occur in Match - even April (even now), though the days of snow stopping play on June 6th at Colchester cricket ground have gone.

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You can dress it up as much as you like, but the ‘winter’ has been pig swill so far and not just for the UK. Those days of ‘snow on snow’ are a rare distant memory for most of us down here in lowland Britain and yes March 2018 was an exception but it was March - the longer days and higher sun finished off the snow within two days.
Back on topic (or still on topic) it’s looking more of the same to the end of Jan with next to zero prospects of meaningful cold.

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[quote=Joe Bloggs;1172450]

There has been plenty of very cold air up north this year. Just been impossible to get any of it this far south. 

/quote]

I know - that bloody Arctic gets it every year

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ha! 

I guess my point is, very often we say “look at the severe lack of cold air to our north, even if we get a northerly it will be watered down, etc etc”

In actual fact, there has been no shortage of cold air to our north this year. 

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Absolutely agree. 

We seem to have the double whammy of fewer instances of cold synoptics, and even when we do get them, it isn’t quite as cold as it used to be. 

The simple theory is the jet is more active. 

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I don’t think anyone has, and would, disagree with any of that. 

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Chicken and egg!

When the jet's strong and not meandering, it "bottles up" the cold. That then gets trapped, effectively, which itself helps reinforce the strength of the jet due to the temperature contrast with those areas where the sun is starting to strengthen. (Hence the stereotypical March gales, as the still-cold Arctic air clashes with the rapidly warming midlatitude air).

To see any of it, we need the jet to buckle such that we get it. The chances of that are lower than usual, though, not least due to the depth of the cold up north!

Eventually it'll head south, but whether we have to wait until spring remains to be seen.

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GFS this morning showing HP for this week, largely gone by the weekend, then a rther irregular zoanl flow with Lp and HP giving 'bumps' in the general westerly theme. (LP mid-Atlantic 29th/30th Jan, HP swiftly followed by LP Sun 2nd/Mon 3rd Feb - some potent gales out of that last combination)

ECM similar but brings LP and cold air further south and over the UK 29th Jan.

In the S, GEFS temps a little above seasonal norm until 27th Jan, and dry; then more widespread rain than forecast yesterday and temps up and down in big swings, presumably correlating with whether the zonal flow is SWly or NWly. In the N, milder wrt seasonal norm at first, the up-and-down pattern also there but more on the cold side of normal.

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Not looking good really for any snow for lowland UK (on the whole). Things improve slightly as we get some cooler interludes with passing fronts, but that is about it! 

Absolutely nothing in Saddleworth snow wise this winter other than a brief sprinkle above about 400m in November! Snow is possible in March though, so we will hopefully pick something up later winter, early spring!

I think that's broadly correct, Joe.

While instances of cold, especially deep and long-lasting cold, have certainly become fewer, the likes of December 2010 (coldest December since the late 19th century I think) proved that given the right synoptics, it is still possible to get notable cold spells in this country which are comparable to those of more than 30 years ago. We then had March 2013 which although that was technically a spring month, was the coldest overall March in this country since the early 60s.

If you ask me, the jet seems to have been more active all year round in many years since the turn of the century not just the winter, but maybe that's just my perception.

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Strangely all the talk in North America seems to be of how the jet has become weaker and more meandering in recent years, leading to record-breaking incursions of both cold air southwards and mild air northwards. Yet over here the jet generally seems to be stronger and flatter. Perhaps it’s because of that meandering over America leading to more mixing of air masses which fires up the jet over the Atlantic?

Certainly the US and Canada don’t seem to have any trouble getting record cold in a warming world. 

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My own view is that it is quite possible that the AMO has had something to do with it too. It has been in a mostly positive phase since the mid-late 1990s as I understand it, but I believe from what I have read elsewhere that it is due to return to a negative phase sometime in the 2020s.

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It was 2 June 1975, not the 6th. And, as far as I know, it's the only time snow has ever falling in southern lowland England in June. There never were "the days" when snow used to fall in June. Only the one.

And, as an aside, it was the prelude to the most beautiful sunny endless summer you could ever imagine.

Re NS Robins' point that you don't get "snow upon snow" in March, even in 2018: well, we did here. The snow began falling overnight 28 Feb/1 March and the drifts were topped up for at least a couple of further days. And, best of all, when it finally dissipated by mid-month, there was another epic fall of several inches of snow on 19 March and we got out the sledges all over again.

And that's in the West Country, just 30 m above sea level. The key point, though, is that it's rural here. I get the feeling that much of the winter moaning and doom-mongering is a consequence of everyone living in towns and/or experiencing winter by the lines of the 850 temps on the GEFS diagrams, rather than going outside.

To normal people, there's been nothing mild about this winter down here, away from the towns. No days of temps in the teens where you could let the fire go out, like last December. No need to mow the lawn. There was even a thin layer of seasonal ice on all the puddles on Christmas Day. The one defining memory so far is battling through the cold and the horizontal rain to vote on 12 December. A typical cold winter, in other words. Even while typing this I'm looking at a white wonderland of frost which will last all day in the shade.

We've lived through an awesome decade for winter fans - Jan and Dec 2010 through to 1 Feb 2019. Record-breaking stuff. But if you spent it in towns, travelling by car from centrally heated home to centrally heated office, and passed the days there gloomily eyeing up the breakdown on GEFS, then too bad. You've had global warming instead.

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Which by then would be about as welcome as being ill in a doctor's waiting room as all thoughts are towards the first proper Spring-like warmth at that point. 

Back on topic, indeed, a snowless January is now virtually nailed on for my end, much like the past six January, really. 

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I am actually intrigued to see if I can make this winter through without seeing a single snowflake, which would be a first. I thought it might happen last winter but we did eventually get some at the end of Jan and a few more times after that. 

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