Spring sandwich anyone? Looks like mild to very mild, then very cold weather filters in from the east, possibly with a snow shower in the SE, before mild weather comes in from the south east ot SW, but all under the influence of a mega high - the like of which has been absent for most of this winter.

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Is my memory playing tricks again or didn't we get a near record breaking H.P. earlier this year?

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Westerlies to Wed then HP building (though a trailing front over the Channel) to centre over Scotland Fri/Sat ca 1040mb; moving off to Scandi Tue 24th with E/SE winds; followed by col/slack LP between Scandi and Azores HP until the latter asserts itself  and briefly moves closer before the Atlantic comes back with SW-lies Mon 30th even gales with LP approaching Wed 1st. Apart from this Friday, N-lies no longer in GFS script

ECM similar but has HP centred over UK Thu 26th only 1025 mb rather than a col.

GEFS normal temp to Wed 18th in N, but mild in S and lasting a day or two longer, cold by Sat 21st, but much more briefly than previously forecast; mean of runs back above normal from Mon 23rd and staying there. Mostly dry, a little rain here and there now and then.

AFTERTHOUGHT: waves on the trailing low is push the HP into spreading itself further east and thus suppressing the possible N-ly

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Some remarkable charts still appearing with a hugely negative NAO likely going towards April.
If only it was . . .

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Jetstream still across the UK to Wed, then breaking into two, N & S of Britain to Mon 23rd when the northern arm becomes dominant, then later that week the southern arm. The latter, with a bit of meandering, continues through to Thu 2nd, always well clear of the UK.

GFS 0z has westerlies until HP develops over Scotland (1040mb Orkney Sat 21st) . HP then moves off to Scandi with SE-ly winds and by Fri 27th is far enough away to allow slack LP over the UK; a more definite LP  centre by Mon 30th,  and finally the threat of a S-ly tracking low from the Atlantic on Thu 2nd.

ECM 0z differs after Sat 21st with HP moving S, not E, westerlies over N of UK for a while until the HP is centred over the UK 1035mb Thu 26th.

GEFS runs showing less agreement than yesterday. Briefly mild in S then cool at the weekend around 21st with a little rain after which temps could do anything - mean stays close to norm but that looks meaningless with so much divergence. Op and control together about 5C below norm around the next weekend. Mostly dry but more rain appearing at end of run at beginning of April. More agreement between runs for the N & Scotland, the 'cool' period mentioned above is definitely cold and is a day or so longer at each, also less rain than S both at first (doesn't match what's on the BBC) and later.

Outlook uncertain

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Regardless of the fact that this incoming fresh easterly is cold, cool, mild or warm its encouraging that provided the fronts stay to the south the air will be dry...hugely welcome, especially if we get with some sunshine after the past several sodden months. 

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Hear hear, Steve. I think we could all do with a break from the rain.

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What a record warmth for stratosphere if this comes about. Given last SSW temps rose by 65c @ 10hpa over the North Pole and this looks like even more of a major one as temperatures rise to +4c from -76c that would be a rise of almost 80c @ 10 hpa - so surely this would be enough to send the atmosphere into reverse and kills the PV:

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A couple of days of W-lies, then the forecast HP starts from mid Atlantic Fri 20th and forms a sort of ridge across Scotland to Scandi lasting to Thu 26th with mostly E-lies over England  Fri 27th sees an intense HP 1050mb over SE Europe allowing slack LP to move up from S over Britain. This combines forces with an Atlantic LP to yield a 1000mb centre over Ireland Thu 2nd.

BBC last night had this ridge just extending from Scandi with W-lies over Scotland and E-lies in the Channel, and after a cold few days has v. warm temps by Wed 25th

ECM somewhere between these two for the first week, and after Thu 25th has ill-defined HP over the UK and Atlantic, not E/SE Europe

GEFS temp profile more consistent than yesterday; cool around Sun 22nd, mild around 25th, cool around Mon 30th, a little rain in some runs, mostly after 30th - in the S temps not far from average but swings more pronounced in N.

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Looking at the fax charts today, I noticed that sub 510 dam weather is sweeping down from Russia across much of Central and Southern Europe early next week, around that Scandi high pressure Some big drops in temperature from a late spring feel to mid winter are likely. In fact some areas might get some of their coldest weather of the 'winter'.

Belgrade for example ....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/792680 

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