theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
07 February 2020 16:57:50


I don’t know how it’s spread but I meant viruses in general.  I’ve spent the past fortnight in Asia, where it’s apparently all been happening and have been oblivious to the details and coverage.  I’m only just picking up on how panicked some people in the UK are about it and wonder if this the press over reacting and scaremongering!  


Yes, it’s a virus to be concerned about but influenza is a killer that we don’t hear as much about yet it’s more common.  I don’t want to make light of this but I do think the fear of it can cause more health problems than the virus itself.  There’s a danger of wrapping ourselves in so much cotton wool that we’d suffocate. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Well said Caz (and welcome back). There are a million and one pieces of information circulating at the moment and some of them are even true but the fact of the matter is that time, research and hindsight will give us a better idea of what is currently going on. There will be spin, conspiracy and coverup but in the end this new virus will do what it will do and as things stand people in this country should be more worried about the “normal flu” than 2019-nCoV. I think some of the near hysteria is unfounded and unhelpful rather than appropriate caution.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
xioni2
07 February 2020 17:04:28

ECDC's latest assessment:


"The risk of 2019-nCoV infection for the EU/EEA and UK population in Europe is currently low.


This assessment is based on the following factors:



  • Probability of infection for the EU/EEA and UK population is considered very low. While there have been imported cases reported from seven EU/EEA countries and from the UK, the overall number of cases reported in the area remains low and containment measures are in place. There are, however, uncertainties regarding transmissibility and under-detection particularly among mild or asymptomatic cases.

  • If an infection is acquired, the impact for the infected individuals is considered high. For the population, the impact of one or more infections is also considered high. Although information on case severity and the effectiveness of control measures remains very limited, data reported as of 7 February accounts for 31 503 confirmed cases, including 638 deaths (2.0%)."

Quantum
07 February 2020 17:29:19

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=020720#.Xj2LxWmCrv8.twitter


New study suggesting mortality rate around 4%.


This could be an overestimate though as it looks at hospitalized patients only.


 


This is one of the most optimistic studies of this type I've seen so far. Alot of good news here. 26% went into ICU.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Roger Parsons
07 February 2020 17:31:37


Well said Caz (and welcome back). There are a million and one pieces of information circulating at the moment and some of them are even true but the fact of the matter is that time, research and hindsight will give us a better idea of what is currently going on. There will be spin, conspiracy and coverup but in the end this new virus will do what it will do and as things stand people in this country should be more worried about the “normal flu” than 2019-nCoV. I think some of the near hysteria is unfounded and unhelpful rather than appropriate caution.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2020 18:14:11


 


Are there still "Chinese laundry's" ?


..... I think we should be told, they could be a vector  for spreading the virus (if they exist).


 



 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Not that I know of but Chinese Whispers can be highly contagious. Plenty of that doing the rounds.


 


 

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Devonian
07 February 2020 18:24:38


 


Well said Caz (and welcome back). There are a million and one pieces of information circulating at the moment and some of them are even true but the fact of the matter is that time, research and hindsight will give us a better idea of what is currently going on. There will be spin, conspiracy and coverup but in the end this new virus will do what it will do and as things stand people in this country should be more worried about the “normal flu” than 2019-nCoV. I think some of the near hysteria is unfounded and unhelpful rather than appropriate caution.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Bingo!*


 


 


*probably?...

Gandalf The White
07 February 2020 18:25:35


 



Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Seconded. Really good to have a calm and measured input.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Devonian
07 February 2020 18:37:06


Revenge of the pangolin?


"China scientists identify pangolin as possible coronavirus host


The deadly coronavirus outbreak in China could have spread from bats to humans through the illegal traffic of pangolins, the world's only scaly mammals, which are prized in Asia for food and medicine, Chinese researchers said.


The pangolin is one of Asia's most trafficked mammals, although protected by international law, because its meat is considered a delicacy in countries such as China and its scales are used in traditional medicine, the World Wildlife Fund says."


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


OT but


If one thing shames the world (and especially those ignorants who eat them) it is the witless, wanton eradication of pangolin by various peoples of various SE Asian nations.


It's just awful that a once common species, largely minding it's own business for 80 million years or so, can be so casually decimated. Awful - a lesson to us all.


If the corona virus came from pangolin it would be the kind of 'justice' I doubt a pangolin (or I) would seek for a human.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2020 19:11:36
Winston has lived in China for many years and traveled there widely, few can offer this insight.
He's not there now or would not dare post this.

China does not operate like Western countries.

North York Moors weather 
Gandalf The White
07 February 2020 19:16:07

Winston has lived in China for many years and traveled there widely, few can offer this insight.
He's not there now or would not dare post this.

China does not operate like Western countries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkF4qYdNU9Y


Originally Posted by: four 

">


That’s weird. I’ve searched for Coronavirus and not found anything that is racist; just analysis and reporting.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


speckledjim
07 February 2020 19:16:16


 


OT but


If one thing shames the world (and especially those ignorants who eat them) it is the witless, wanton eradication of pangolin by various peoples of various SE Asian nations.


It's just awful that a once common species, largely minding it's own business for 80 million years or so, can be so casually decimated. Awful - a lesson to us all.


If the corona virus came from pangolin it would be the kind of 'justice' I doubt a pangolin (or I) would seek for a human.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


the Chinese have a lot to answer for with what they consider to be a delicacy and what they believe is medicinal 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
07 February 2020 19:19:07


 


the Chinese have a lot to answer for with what they consider to be a delicacy and what they believe is medicinal 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


How very true. Some of the traditional beliefs are just absurd. China may once have been an advanced society but some of their beliefs and traditions belong in the Middle Ages.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
07 February 2020 20:01:40


 


How very true. Some of the traditional beliefs are just absurd. China may once have been an advanced society but some of their beliefs and traditions belong in the Middle Ages.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Same goes for a certain Middle Eastern faith.

New world order coming.
Roger Parsons
07 February 2020 20:26:00


How very true. Some of the traditional beliefs are just absurd. China may once have been an advanced society but some of their beliefs and traditions belong in the Middle Ages.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I suspect this a universal aspect of humans generally, Gandalf. Traditional beliefs are what we cannot help believing... and even our most trusted "knowledge" can turn out to be based on less than sound foundations. The fire throws shadows on the walls of the cave. The ancestors watch us to see what we will do next. You know they are there, because hairs are rising on the back of your neck, and your forearms....


 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Essan
08 February 2020 10:02:22

One of the best pieces I've read about 2019-nCoV (and it also explains why not even the media have given it a more catchy* name yet)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119365143/coronavirus-came-from-bats-or-possibly-pangolins-amid-acceleration-of-new-zoonotic-infections

* no pun intended ....

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Ally Pally Snowman
08 February 2020 10:10:45

5 more cases in France all British nationals . One of them got it from Singapore 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bugglesgate
08 February 2020 10:11:45


 


Same goes for a certain Middle Eastern faith.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Same goes for ALL Middle Eastern originated faiths (or more accurately, the same one with many different serpent heads - from someone who was baptised and confirmed into it)  All  IMHO naturally

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Maunder Minimum
08 February 2020 10:15:21


5 more cases in France all British nationals . One of them got it from Singapore 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Looks like vindication for Quantum.


Clearly, Singapore has become a notably infected region.

New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 February 2020 10:30:35


 


Looks like vindication for Quantum.


Clearly, Singapore has become a notably infected region.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Never doubt the Quantum.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
08 February 2020 10:41:08

In terms of independent sources of infection from Singapore we have:



  • British case

  • France case

  • Dimond industries Jwellery incident -> transmitted to tour guide

  • Thai Hang medical products shop -> transmitted to family

  • Malaysian case 1

  • Malaysian case 2

  • College teacher


 


So 6 or 7 independent cases (ambiguity because diamond industries and Thai hang may not entirely be indepdent, it's difficult to tell) with no origin in China*


Remember that graph I posted where an epidemic is likely if there are more than 3 indepdent sources? Above 6 independent sources it is 90% certain.


Singapore has lost control and should now be considered to be similar to China.


If we do not block flights to singapore aswell as china (probably include hong kong and macau) we are also at risk. The UK is now up to 2 indepdent sources of infection and teetering on the brink of an epidemic. Singapore, imo, is already a lost cause.


 


* in terms of raw numbers this amounts to 18 cases

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Heavy Weather 2013
08 February 2020 10:44:10
Evidence seems be mounting that Singapore could be a new hot zone.

This is what was feared. Q you were correct in calling this. Well done.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
speckledjim
08 February 2020 11:20:04

On a more positive note, of the 325 (outside China) cases identified we have only had 2 deaths which is a current mortality rate of .615%. Of course, there is potential for that to rise as the virus progresses in those patients recently diagnosed.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
ozone_aurora
08 February 2020 11:36:34


One of the best pieces I've read about 2019-nCoV (and it also explains why not even the media have given it a more catchy* name yet)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119365143/coronavirus-came-from-bats-or-possibly-pangolins-amid-acceleration-of-new-zoonotic-infections

* no pun intended ....


Originally Posted by: Essan 



I call it a Super Cold, since Common Cold is sometimes caused by Human Coronavirus.

Essan
08 February 2020 12:28:41

The UK is now up to 2 indepdent sources of infection and teetering on the brink of an epidemic.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



If a total of zero cases of infection within the UK means we have an epidemic on our hands, then we'd better watch out for ebola as well

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Heavy Weather 2013
08 February 2020 12:39:06
A child has been instructed by PHE to be self isolated for 14 days the parents have confirmed.

What is going on here then. How long has this child been at school before this information was given.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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