Arrange a meet up with Q?

More groundless absurdity. Evidently your real world experience hasn't yet weaned you off silly conspiracy theories.

As for the WHO, it will upgrade this to a pandemic if it spreads widely and is clearly not being contained across more countries.

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I take your point and I wasn’t listening to the news while I was away but I disembarked and toured parts of the countries concerned, so I have at least some first hand experience of what’s going on. My conclusions are taken from that, rather than from what the media want us to believe. 

Gandalf is currently in Singapore and is reporting no change since I was there earlier in the week.  I’m not making light of this and I’m not saying the situation won’t change.  People are entitled to their own thoughts and I respect that but it really isn’t worth stressing about.  I‘m just telling it as it is now and I think we’d know if it was time to panic.

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  Maybe I should take your lead.  It’s the science that interests me too but it’s sometimes difficult to separate fact from fiction and assumption!  As always, the media has a lot to answer for!  

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I was not thinking of you, Caz - as you have the disadvantage of knowing something of the situation.

Roger

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  I know what you meant Roger!  

You’re right!  I have the disadvantage, but also the advantage as I’m not panicking!  I think as well as the biological science, the psychology of this is also very interesting.  

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I think you're right. This is as much a study of human behaviour as anything else.

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Not sure we do... https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=ALQTdCYGISw

Hi Roger,

Yes, I saw that piece. For some strange reason my thoughts turned to certain contributors to this thread. No idea why..

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NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

 

Many doctors believe that deaths and infections from the current epidemic are undercounted in China because testing facilities are under severe strain.

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The behaviour of a "host" is a critical factor in many diseases. Back to our friend the epidemiological triad of host, agent and environment.

Roger

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Another UK confirmed case upto 4 now. Can we avoid an epidemic here?

 

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But it has been traced to a known earlier case. One solitary incident and the patient has been isolated.

This is absolutely no evidence of an unfolding epidemic. 

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More abysmal journalism with lazy, misleading sub-headings.

"Many doctors believe......'  - Really? 

 

'More cases are reported in Britain and Spain.' translates to ONE new case in each country. Again, woeful reporting.

 

 

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Be interesting to see if Singapore,  Thailand and South Korea can avoid an epidemic.  If they can hopefully we can aswell.

 

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But not should we take the Chinese government figures at face value. Not sure anyone thinks they are credible.

Based on what actual evidence? 

What’s your evidence for “not sure anyone thinks they are credible”?

Does it matter? If there are loads more cases where the symptoms have been so mild as not to require medical care that’s good news in terms of potential severity/death rate.   If there are more deaths there’s no basis for assuming that will be the case outside China.

The WHO seems prepared to accept the Chinese data.

 

I don’t see how baseless speculation adds anything to the discussion.

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43 cases now in Singapore worryingly 6 are in critical condition that's 14%.  There is still much to learn about this virus including the death rate.

 

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Gandalf is our Dr Pangloss. My son-in-law is a GP and this afternoon he told me a pandemic is inevitable and the NHS is forward planning on that basis.

Nobody serious is taking official Chinese statistics at face value and the WHO is seeking Chinese permission to send its own team in on the ground to verify the origins and statistics on the outbreak.

 

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Blimey, now people are getting criticised for not being pessimistic

If this were 'AG you know what' words like chicken little, lies, fraud, conspiracy would be being hurled at you for your, understandable, concern about this... Indeed, while there are mountains of evidence for 'you know what' there is very little wrt the virus. And what happens? People, somehow, are more happy to believe the threat of this virus than you know what.

It really is a funny old world.

 

 

I believe this, MM, not least because no one forward plans on the basis that nothing bad will happen! You plan for the worst and hope for the best. A police officer I know says: "Expect the worst of people and you will never be disappointed." I could paraphrase that as "Expect every disease to be a potential pandemic, then you will always be ready and will sometimes be right." R.

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As far as I can tell most people with the virus are best off staying warm and hydrated at home. People flooding into hospitals and surgeries is only likely to facilitate the spread of the virus. I expect high intensity beds will be identified and freed up at short notice. Beyond that what exactly does the planning entail? 

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Agreed! Hospital is the worst place to be under these circumstances, unless you really need intensive care.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/uk-faces-major-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-world-expert-wxf628g75

"...

A fourth patient in England has been diagnosed with coronavirus as a microbiologist warned that the country could suffer a “major outbreak” which is likely to become a pandemic.

...

Meanwhile, Professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said he was “increasingly alarmed” by the rapid spread of the virus and the “huge” number of cases emerging daily.

...

"

 

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Yes, but isn't pandemic a word that sounds scary when the reality is a pandemic can be serious or it can be mild - it depends on the disease involved? There must be (I'm guessing here...) many new cold virus mutations that become pandemic?

Whether this corona virus is serious isn't necessarily defined by it being a pandemic.

'Pandemic:Epidemic over a wide geographic area and affecting a large proportion of the population.'

You are correct the term pandemic refers to distribution rather than seriousness, Dev. I am sure you are right the term is often given the wrong emphasis. [Tho' any infectious disease capable of world-wide spread needs to be taken seriously]. My point is one should always be prepared for a serious epidemic as far possible - preparedness is the key. This is why surveillance is important and adequate planning for an outbreak.

Most folks are somewhat prepared for, say, a 'flu epidemic. If they catch 'flu they will know to keep hydrated and will probably have soups and similar things to keep them going, tissues and suitable medication. Hopefully 9/10 you will not need it, but when you do life is so much simpler if you are organised.

'Flusurvey is part of the UK's monitoring process for 'flu-like illnesses. I keep giving it a plug - but hardly anyone has troubled to show any interest so far! Maybe everyone has signed up for it and is just not mentioning that in order to give me a tweak? That must be it.

https://flusurvey.net/

R

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