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xioni2
09 February 2020 09:20:38


Woke up this morning with a sore throat. I know what comes next


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Arrange a meet up with Q?

Gandalf The White
09 February 2020 09:20:54




With respect you haven't seen much of the real world from a cruise, and will have heard less of what's going on in China than we have.
It would surprise me if the lab base in Wuhan and specialising in tinkering with this exact form of virus isn't somehow implicated, we shall never know.

It's a mystery why WHO still seeks to downplay an event which is already far worse than SARs even by official figures which almost everyone accepts are far less than reality.


 


Originally Posted by: four 


More groundless absurdity. Evidently your real world experience hasn't yet weaned you off silly conspiracy theories.


As for the WHO, it will upgrade this to a pandemic if it spreads widely and is clearly not being contained across more countries.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 09:27:43



With respect you haven't seen much of the real world from a cruise, and will have heard less of what's going on in China than we have.
It would surprise me if the lab base in Wuhan and specialising in tinkering with this exact form of virus isn't somehow implicated, we shall never know.

It's a mystery why WHO still seeks to downplay an event which is already far worse than SARs even by official figures which almost everyone accepts are far less than reality.


Originally Posted by: four 

I take your point and I wasn’t listening to the news while I was away but I disembarked and toured parts of the countries concerned, so I have at least some first hand experience of what’s going on. My conclusions are taken from that, rather than from what the media want us to believe. 


Gandalf is currently in Singapore and is reporting no change since I was there earlier in the week.  I’m not making light of this and I’m not saying the situation won’t change.  People are entitled to their own thoughts and I respect that but it really isn’t worth stressing about.  I‘m just telling it as it is now and I think we’d know if it was time to panic.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 09:39:10


 


I've stopped commenting here much, Caz. I like to see folks trying to grasp a science issue. However, as Terry Pratchett put it: "...if you fling a thousand darts at the board, some of them will hit the bull." He goes on to say: "...the people using the computers were not in fact shiny, new people, but the same dumb old human beings that there have always been. They did not - much - want to use the technology to get educated. They wanted to look at porn, play games and chat."


R


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

  Maybe I should take your lead.  It’s the science that interests me too but it’s sometimes difficult to separate fact from fiction and assumption!  As always, the media has a lot to answer for!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Roger Parsons
09 February 2020 09:46:48


  Maybe I should take your lead.  It’s the science that interests me too but it’s sometimes difficult to separate fact from fiction and assumption!  As always, the media has a lot to answer for!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I was not thinking of you, Caz - as you have the disadvantage of knowing something of the situation.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 10:13:29


 


I was not thinking of you, Caz - as you have the disadvantage of knowing something of the situation.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

  I know what you meant Roger!  


You’re right!  I have the disadvantage, but also the advantage as I’m not panicking!  I think as well as the biological science, the psychology of this is also very interesting.  


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Ulric
09 February 2020 10:22:24

I think as well as the biological science, the psychology of this is also very interesting.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I think you're right. This is as much a study of human behaviour as anything else.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
bowser
09 February 2020 11:19:41


 


 


We do, outside of China....


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Not sure we do... https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=ALQTdCYGISw

Gandalf The White
09 February 2020 12:25:52


WHO agrees with you, Gandalf. Coronavirus: WHO chief warns against 'trolls and conspiracy theories'


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51429400


Roger


Addition: Coronavirus deaths exceed Sars fatalities in 2003 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51431087


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Hi Roger,


Yes, I saw that piece. For some strange reason my thoughts turned to certain contributors to this thread. No idea why..


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
09 February 2020 13:04:31

NYT:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html


 


Many doctors believe that deaths and infections from the current epidemic are undercounted in China because testing facilities are under severe strain.


New world order coming.
Roger Parsons
09 February 2020 13:08:57


I think you're right. This is as much a study of human behaviour as anything else.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


The behaviour of a "host" is a critical factor in many diseases. Back to our friend the epidemiological triad of host, agent and environment.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2020 13:21:57

Another UK confirmed case upto 4 now. Can we avoid an epidemic here?


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
09 February 2020 13:24:31


Another UK confirmed case upto 4 now. Can we avoid an epidemic here?


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


But it has been traced to a known earlier case. One solitary incident and the patient has been isolated.


This is absolutely no evidence of an unfolding epidemic. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
09 February 2020 13:33:30


NYT:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html


 


Many doctors believe that deaths and infections from the current epidemic are undercounted in China because testing facilities are under severe strain.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


More abysmal journalism with lazy, misleading sub-headings.


"Many doctors believe......'  - Really? 


 


'More cases are reported in Britain and Spain.' translates to ONE new case in each country. Again, woeful reporting.


 


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2020 13:35:36


 


But it has been traced to a known earlier case. One solitary incident and the patient has been isolated.


This is absolutely no evidence of an unfolding epidemic. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Be interesting to see if Singapore,  Thailand and South Korea can avoid an epidemic.  If they can hopefully we can aswell.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bowser
09 February 2020 14:23:39


 


More abysmal journalism with lazy, misleading sub-headings.


"Many doctors believe......'  - Really? 


 


'More cases are reported in Britain and Spain.' translates to ONE new case in each country. Again, woeful reporting.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


But not should we take the Chinese government figures at face value. Not sure anyone thinks they are credible.

Gandalf The White
09 February 2020 14:44:57


 


But not should we take the Chinese government figures at face value. Not sure anyone thinks they are credible.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


Based on what actual evidence? 


What’s your evidence for “not sure anyone thinks they are credible”?


Does it matter? If there are loads more cases where the symptoms have been so mild as not to require medical care that’s good news in terms of potential severity/death rate.   If there are more deaths there’s no basis for assuming that will be the case outside China.


The WHO seems prepared to accept the Chinese data.


 


I don’t see how baseless speculation adds anything to the discussion.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2020 15:58:14

43 cases now in Singapore worryingly 6 are in critical condition that's 14%.  There is still much to learn about this virus including the death rate.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
09 February 2020 16:58:58


43 cases now in Singapore worryingly 6 are in critical condition that's 14%.  There is still much to learn about this virus including the death rate.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Gandalf is our Dr Pangloss. My son-in-law is a GP and this afternoon he told me a pandemic is inevitable and the NHS is forward planning on that basis.


Nobody serious is taking official Chinese statistics at face value and the WHO is seeking Chinese permission to send its own team in on the ground to verify the origins and statistics on the outbreak.


 


New world order coming.
Devonian
09 February 2020 17:08:58


 


Gandalf is our Dr Pangloss. My son-in-law is a GP and this afternoon he told me a pandemic is inevitable and the NHS is forward planning on that basis.


Nobody serious is taking official Chinese statistics at face value and the WHO is seeking Chinese permission to send its own team in on the ground to verify the origins and statistics on the outbreak.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Blimey, now people are getting criticised for not being pessimistic


If this were 'AG you know what' words like chicken little, lies, fraud, conspiracy would be being hurled at you for your, understandable, concern about this... Indeed, while there are mountains of evidence for 'you know what' there is very little wrt the virus. And what happens? People, somehow, are more happy to believe the threat of this virus than you know what.


It really is a funny old world.


 


 

Roger Parsons
09 February 2020 17:35:22


Gandalf is our Dr Pangloss. My son-in-law is a GP and this afternoon he told me a pandemic is inevitable and the NHS is forward planning on that basis.


Nobody serious is taking official Chinese statistics at face value and the WHO is seeking Chinese permission to send its own team in on the ground to verify the origins and statistics on the outbreak.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I believe this, MM, not least because no one forward plans on the basis that nothing bad will happen! You plan for the worst and hope for the best. A police officer I know says: "Expect the worst of people and you will never be disappointed." I could paraphrase that as "Expect every disease to be a potential pandemic, then you will always be ready and will sometimes be right." R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Brian Gaze
09 February 2020 17:55:52


My son-in-law is a GP and this afternoon he told me a pandemic is inevitable and the NHS is forward planning on that basis.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


As far as I can tell most people with the virus are best off staying warm and hydrated at home. People flooding into hospitals and surgeries is only likely to facilitate the spread of the virus. I expect high intensity beds will be identified and freed up at short notice. Beyond that what exactly does the planning entail? 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Maunder Minimum
09 February 2020 18:13:38


 


As far as I can tell most people with the virus are best off staying warm and hydrated at home. People flooding into hospitals and surgeries is only likely to facilitate the spread of the virus. I expect high intensity beds will be identified and freed up at short notice. Beyond that what exactly does the planning entail? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Agreed! Hospital is the worst place to be under these circumstances, unless you really need intensive care.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/uk-faces-major-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-world-expert-wxf628g75


"...


A fourth patient in England has been diagnosed with coronavirus as a microbiologist warned that the country could suffer a “major outbreak” which is likely to become a pandemic.


...


Meanwhile, Professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said he was “increasingly alarmed” by the rapid spread of the virus and the “huge” number of cases emerging daily.


...


"


 


New world order coming.
Devonian
09 February 2020 20:09:42


 


I believe this, MM, not least because no one forward plans on the basis that nothing bad will happen! You plan for the worst and hope for the best. A police officer I know says: "Expect the worst of people and you will never be disappointed." I could paraphrase that as "Expect every disease to be a potential pandemic, then you will always be ready and will sometimes be right." R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Yes, but isn't pandemic a word that sounds scary when the reality is a pandemic can be serious or it can be mild - it depends on the disease involved? There must be (I'm guessing here...) many new cold virus mutations that become pandemic?


Whether this corona virus is serious isn't necessarily defined by it being a pandemic.


'Pandemic:Epidemic over a wide geographic area and affecting a large proportion of the population.'

Roger Parsons
09 February 2020 21:43:59


Yes, but isn't pandemic a word that sounds scary when the reality is a pandemic can be serious or it can be mild - it depends on the disease involved? There must be (I'm guessing here...) many new cold virus mutations that become pandemic?


Whether this corona virus is serious isn't necessarily defined by it being a pandemic.


'Pandemic:Epidemic over a wide geographic area and affecting a large proportion of the population.'


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


You are correct the term pandemic refers to distribution rather than seriousness, Dev. I am sure you are right the term is often given the wrong emphasis. [Tho' any infectious disease capable of world-wide spread needs to be taken seriously]. My point is one should always be prepared for a serious epidemic as far possible - preparedness is the key. This is why surveillance is important and adequate planning for an outbreak.


Most folks are somewhat prepared for, say, a 'flu epidemic. If they catch 'flu they will know to keep hydrated and will probably have soups and similar things to keep them going, tissues and suitable medication. Hopefully 9/10 you will not need it, but when you do life is so much simpler if you are organised.


'Flusurvey is part of the UK's monitoring process for 'flu-like illnesses. I keep giving it a plug - but hardly anyone has troubled to show any interest so far! Maybe everyone has signed up for it and is just not mentioning that in order to give me a tweak? That must be it.


https://flusurvey.net/


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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