A bit like the mid winter easterly or any easterly in winter except for feb/march 2018.

Yes, if only it had been as recently as that.

Lol...Good old ironic humour. I'm sure Boris (Cummins), Putin and Trump would agree though. I fear they prefer the view of the mob to an expert. I'd rather listen to David Attenborougher than Trump when it comes to facts on climate change or anything environmental. 

Not sure I can better this; there's a bit of light at the end of the tunnel as the jetstream weakens a bit from 2/3 Mar after being strong throughout and with regular weekendMpep-ups. GFS  & ECM match this nicely with maximum cyclone activity at/near the weekends but finally a well-marked NP on Wed 4th Nar (1030 mb Cornwall). 

GEFS ens now agreeing on mild and dry spell for S until Tue 25th Feb after which intermittent rain and temps up and down, presumably varying with warm/cold sectors; timing varies with the different runs. In the N, temps up and down and more rain until 25th - consistent with being closer to the mild/cold boundary of Atlantic air.

'Postage stamps' in general the same as for many weeks and continuing, with a milder patch over the E Atlantic and UK, and cold (if any)either side.

😀

Welcome to what I optimistically call 'middle age'....  I can empathise completely: I've gone from the excitement of "Oh, great, a decent snowfall" to a more pragmatic "Oh, the heating bill is going up."

😉

What a dreadful winter its been , saw a few flakes in a heavy downpour the other week .

I'm hoping the Easterly QBO might have some sort of influence next year .

Hi Marcus

I was wondering whether you or anyone else here knows what phase the QBO was in at this time in 2018 just before the Beast from the East struck? A month or two ago I recall reading on here that there was an easterly QBO during the early stages of last winter before it flipped westerly later on.

It was Easterly ( just ) @10HPA & Easterly all the way down however Westerly QBO was downwelling from the top down & wasnt far off the 10HPA layer.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

I know what you mean, I`d like to try  sledging again,  but as i`m well into my 70s I don`t think there`s much chance of that. My Swiss style sledge is still in the loft though. Probably it`s next use will be by the Grandchildren.

Thanks Steve.

Surely if you have a very cold stratosphere which is causing an exceptionally strong polar vortex and fast moving zonal westerly jet stream higher up - then surely an easterly QBO won't make any different? - it will sort of over-ride everything!!? Would it not?

We would need warmer stratosphere to have a weaker PV and this looks unlikely now for rest of the winter!!

I opened a thread about something similar but re A SSW.

Hope winter 2020/21 will deliver something wintry.

Even Russians and my Muskovite friends woke up to 6c this morning and this is in Moscow! CRAZY.

Back to Models - more of the same old borefest zonal crap! Small hits of drier weather toward end but with temperatures in stratosphere so cold still and the PV so strong I doubt that high pressure will build in a hurry and any ridge will get flattened.  We can only hope and still can't believe we are in the same weather pattern as we were in October 2019.

Meanwhile, what the chart makers can see is yet more westerlies - passing fronts at any time but with extra boost from LP Tue 25th Feb (955 mb off N Scotland) but brief ridge of HP Sat 29th Feb. ECM and GFS differ about an LP on 27th Feb, ECM making it a major feature through Shetland but GFS a shallow low across England. No strong development of HP later on as was suggested yesterday.

Western areas get the most rainfall especially week 1 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4. 

According to the GEFS ens, the S has a mild and dry spell until 25th then rain on and off and (with usual caveats about scatter)  temps around the seasonal norm. The N incl Scotland is only patchily mild to the 25th and the rain never really goes away.

That explains  why the last post was 07:32 this morning ........ 

What a damn godawful winter

Little by little the recent ECM runs have increased the hints of a 2-3 colder spell in the 7-10 day window.

Today's 12z has this for T+240, for example:

Remember the net flow we observe is a combination of the stratospheric & tropospheric forcing. In this winters case its almost a perfect couplet.

An Easterly QBO will increase the probability of upward energy flux to disturb the vortex.

This Winter a perfect storm of 'positive' global Teleconnections & a bulldozing stratosphere. 

This +EPO +WPO -PNA +NAO +AO + COUPLET to Strat is the signature of the Winter is over post from Late Jan. - Despite the stupid comments from the idiot poster at the time. Its born out to be true.

Next week the AO breaks the 2-3 week old record from the start of Feb 2020. Forecasts now of +6.6 AO breaking the new 6.31 Record. 

This will bring continued stormy westerlies > maybe enough cold in the system for some snow at elevation ....

Interesting re what you said about an easterly QBO! So let's see what next winter will bring!?

I heard that the Indian Ocean SST's was to blame for the exceptionally mild winter across Europe too!? Which I thought would never influence our weather here in Europe.

Jetstream still amazingly strong (will it ever give up?) - big powerful streak for Sun 23rd and then another go on Mon 2nd, that introducing a week in which it runs S of the UK so an indication of cold from the N; and then peps up again on Sat 7th across the UK. No surprise to see the western side of the UK getting deluged http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 and heavy rain taken south across France in week 2 i.e. matching the date of the 2nd above.

GFS shows westerlies continuing but with some of the LP centres which roll along in the flow coming further south and introducing spells of colder N/NW winds e.g. Wed  26th & Sat 29th & Thu 5th. The sequence finishes with a big dartboard low Sat 7th 945mb approaching from the west. The forecast has moved since yesterday to become stormier and often colder but not wintry except at elevation. ECM similar but with minor differences in timing, tending to be a day earlier in bringing storms through.

GEFS ens have a similar downgrade since yesterday, the 'mild' spell until Tue 25th less marked in the S and all but gone in the N, followed by a week with temps consistently though not enormously below the seasonal norm, and then from 1st Mar less agreement but more runs on the cold side than previously forecast. Precipitation now expected to be continual throughout.

Plenty of double-digit snow row figures to be found from the Pennines northwards, and even a few south of that; Inverness nearly every day above 20.

Uncanny charts and weather condtiions appearing almost similiar to what happened almost 25 years ago today.

An active cold front pushing SEwards as happened on 22nd February 1995.

And these two charts below. The first one heralding the cold zonal start to March 1995

But when was it last put to the test? I can't remember the last time we had a true vertical direct northerly running all the way from The Arctic to south of us giving sub 528 dam. This then gave the hope of a polar low or a front diving south and bringing snow.

As for sledging, I really should be putting it out of mind at 70 with two replacement knees. Might get down the hill but probably not back up now! Certainly took my grandchildren when I was in my early sixties but it hasn't snowed enough here for several years now.

Re the Indian Ocean SSTs, I seem to recall that not long before Christmas, one member commented in this thread about this and how it could have been having an effect on the weather patterns across Europe during this winter.