Thanks for the info! 

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Like all of the ludicrously over-sold pandemics/apocalypses/extinction events, this virus is predictably turning into another massive letdown.

Some posters need to get a grip.

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My work colleague returned on Friday after his 2 weeks self isolation. His experience in China was not great with him his wife and 3 children unable to leave the house for the final 2 weeks of their holiday. The house they stayed at were those of his relations and their children, so obviously very cramped conditions. His flight back to Australia was cancelled and the only flight he could get was too Bangkok 4 days later and that was business class with his wife and 3 children (highly expensive). He then got another flight back to Australia. School lessons are still occurring with these done over the Internet. Evidently the Chinese government are also encouraging people to do exercise via online classes. He has experienced a highly stressful time and I was quite shocked at his appearance coming back to work. So many questions to ask him, but he is a pretty private person though I am sure he will say more over time. A real reality check though as to what people are experiencing in China at the moment.

Very interesting post, Perthite. Appreciated.

Roger

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Its been difficult to keep up with the numbers today. But Italy has had 33 new cases and the worse day so far for Japan with 24.

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Some surprisingly positive news about progress with finding a vaccine.

http://outbreaknewstoday.com/covid-19-vaccine-university-of-queensland-researchers-make-significant-step-91779/

 

 

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I was at the local hospital for routine out-patient appointment today and noticed that there is a 'Coronavirus pod' looking uncommonly like a portakabin

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I think some hospitals are using shipping containers too!  

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Ally Pally says 24 cases in Japan today. I am looking for more on that information - do you know SJ?

Also note:

Coronavirus: South Korea confirms huge rise in cases

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51596665

Roger

 

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Hi Roger NHK is good for all things Japanese.  Stick Google Translate on it , it gives a fairly comprehensive review of all the cases. 25 now today.

 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200222/k10012297291000.html

 

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Iran now has a major problem, due to impending elections they are trying to keep things quiet but could already have deaths in 100s, it seems to be due to Chinese workers especially around Qom which is a place of pilgrimage with a constant stream of visitors.
Reports suggest many cases with an unusually rapid onset from feeling OK 'within hours' into critical conditions.

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Italy does appear to have sustained local transmission. I have to hope they can keep this under control, feeling less confident though.

 

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Domo arigato

R.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-updates/2020/02/22/72dd19de-54ea-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

"There are new indications that the incubation period for the virus could be longer than the currently believed 14 days, with patients testing positive after much longer quarantine periods. This development came as infections rose in South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy and the head of the World Health Organization warned that the window for stopping the epidemic was narrowing.

..."

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Exponential behaviour starting to appear in rest of the world.

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Perhaps this was the Chinese plan all along for global domination. Sacrifice Hubei province, but the rest of China will be ok, whilst the rest of the world suffers a pandemic. 

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Grim news from Italy over night.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51602007

 

Personally, I'm now  fairly convinced that this cannot be stopped from spreading throughout the globe. 

In our back yard,  in an internationally linked country like the UK I think we need to start  preparing ourselves psychologically for   it   entering UK cities -  at which point (given the apparent ease of transmission and long incubation period)  in practical terms containment becomes impossible.

We should be grateful that the death rate  appears to be relatively low however, it should be treated as a major wake up call.  Next time  the virus could be  truly deadly.

 

 

 

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My thoughts are that this has spread further already but hasn’t shown up due to it being carried without symptoms, so I’ve never been convinced it will be contained because we don’t know exactly where it is.  But neither am I convinced it’s as deadly as first thought.

It’s known that the majority of serious cases have been in people with underlying health problems and already compromised immune systems.  That suggests anyone who is otherwise fit and healthy might fight off the virus, or show very mild symptoms and fly under the radar with it.  The cases that have been serious are fairly isolated and random in the sense that whole communities haven’t been infected.  Those on the cruise ship, while all have been in close contact, not all have been seriously infected.

Just my thoughts and pondering, with no scientific calculations whatsoever, but I think it’s looking that way and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if other countries start reporting cases. 

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3 Serie A games cancelled today because of the Virus outbreak.  I can't remember top flight football ever being cancelled in Europe for such a reason before . Obviously pretty low down in importance in the great scheme of things but just shows how truly extraordinary this event is.

 

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The low mortality rate is of course good news. But, in reality, it’s not the mortality rate that will determine the social disruption.

If this takes hold in the UK, the NHS will likely collapse and day to day life will be difficult.

Panic buying will like happen.

What is frightening is how quickly this is now starting to take hold in Italy, SK and Iran.

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I think it’s possible that morbidity as well as mortality rates are low.  I agree about social disruption, although it depends how the authorities perceive the risk and how much the general public panic.  At present, the NHS are dealing with it fairly well with their 111 pods at every A&E department but I think care homes might struggle. 

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Thankfully the mortality rate seems to be fairly low but the thing that worries me is the transmission. With normal flu if you don't have close contact with someone, take sensible measures to avoid coughs and sneezes you can very often avoid it. So for example on the odd time I or another member of my family has had flu we have not passed it on to anyone else in the house.

It's worrying because my Mum is in her 80's and not in the best of health. I work in a SEN school and I know if it comes over I'm pretty much guaranteed to catch it. I can't put my Mum in isolation as she needs me to help care for her. 

If people run around like headless chickens some of these things may indeed happen. Given much of the nonsense that normally spreads on social media the real danger is the perception of risk not the actual threat (if that makes sense). I’m just glad we don’t react to the much more prevalent and established flu viruses in the same way.

Referring to a point Chris made, in reality if the virus was more deadly it would almost certainly spread more slowly. The most deadly viruses quite often tend to be self-limiting. The biggest threat would be one that mutated to become very slow acting, highly contagious and with high mortality. Thankfully Covid-19 doesn’t fit that description based on all available evidence.

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/shrug.

I really don't get all the fuss over this, considering that thousands of people die in the UK every year from flu and there's nary a mention of it on the news.

From 2018:

"The failings contributed to the worst flu season for seven years, with 15,000 deaths from the virus, around twice the average figure, and the worst NHS performance on record."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/30/winter-deaths-hit-highest-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/

If this new flu does get out and about, so be it. It might be unpleasant if you catch it, but it's not going to end civilisation as we know it!

 

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A very balanced post Doc.

As ever, perspective is required.

I also presume nobody is suggesting that we close all borders with Italy, ban all flights, and cancel holidays to mainland Europe on the back of the most recent developments? If not, we are being inconsistent. 

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