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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 09:11:54


 


If people run around like headless chickens some of these things may indeed happen. Given much of the nonsense that normally spreads on social media the real danger is the perception of risk not the actual threat (if that makes sense). I’m just glad we don’t react to the much more prevalent and established flu viruses in the same way.


Referring to a point Chris made, in reality if the virus was more deadly it would almost certainly spread more slowly. The most deadly viruses quite often tend to be self-limiting. The biggest threat would be one that mutated to become very slow acting, highly contagious and with high mortality. Thankfully Covid-19 doesn’t fit that description based on all available evidence.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

  Precisely!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 09:16:21


A very balanced post Doc.


As ever, perspective is required.


I also presume nobody is suggesting that we close all borders with Italy, ban all flights, and cancel holidays to mainland Europe on the back of the most recent developments? If not, we are being inconsistent. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Give them time Joe!  


I have never understood the call to close borders, cancel flights etc. because given the nature of this virus, that would be shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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speckledjim
23 February 2020 10:08:36
The WHO are saying that Italy made a serious mistake in not quarantining people who arrived in Italy from China. Italy has also mobilised armed forces and police to create a 'health belt' around contagion areas.

South Korea has also empowered the government to lock down cities and restrict travel.

It will be very interesting to see how these 2 'first world' countries deal with and how quickly they can get on top if it.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 10:12:09
The WHO are still saying it's OK for people to fly between China and various African countries.
Their every pronouncement seems to be at least two weeks later than it should have been.

Gandalf The White
23 February 2020 10:12:16


 


If people run around like headless chickens some of these things may indeed happen. Given much of the nonsense that normally spreads on social media the real danger is the perception of risk not the actual threat (if that makes sense). I’m just glad we don’t react to the much more prevalent and established flu viruses in the same way.


Referring to a point Chris made, in reality if the virus was more deadly it would almost certainly spread more slowly. The most deadly viruses quite often tend to be self-limiting. The biggest threat would be one that mutated to become very slow acting, highly contagious and with high mortality. Thankfully Covid-19 doesn’t fit that description based on all available evidence.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Excellent and measured as always, Michael.


From what I've read one of the concerns in the health/science community is that one of the many viruses that persist in the natural world amongst animals could jump across the species barrier and mutate in exactly the way you describe. Two of the more recent and particularly nasty ones, Ebola and MERS, have high mortality rates but are relatively simple to contain (simple, not easy).  AIDS is another from the other end of the spectrum which made the leap from animals to humans.


As the numbers of human beings increase, contact with wild areas increases (pressures for land for homes and farming, for example) and global travel continues to extend its reach then the ingredients are there for a more dangerous outbreak one day.  As things stand Covid-19 doesn't look like a serious threat for the majority.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


bowser
23 February 2020 10:25:20

The WHO are still saying it's OK for people to fly between China and various African countries.
Their every pronouncement seems to be at least two weeks later than it should have been.

Originally Posted by: four 


I thought they were reactive and behind the curve around a month ago. Makes no difference now though.

The Beast from the East
23 February 2020 10:31:59


 


 


If this new flu does get out and about, so be it. It might be unpleasant if you catch it, but it's not going to end civilisation as we know it!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Public hysteria fuelled by the media is the biggest threat, not the virus itself


We have already seen a lot of irrational behaviour, with a large spike in hate crimes against Chinese looking people.


Our culture and society have been dumbed down over decades and mob mentality can easily take over. Only strong and sensible political leadership can keep the ship from sinking. Just as well we have a man of such honour and integrity in power


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
23 February 2020 10:46:41


 


Public hysteria fuelled by the media is the biggest threat, not the virus itself


We have already seen a lot of irrational behaviour, with a large spike in hate crimes against Chinese looking people.


Our culture and society have been dumbed down over decades and mob mentality can easily take over. Only strong and sensible political leadership can keep the ship from sinking. Just as well we have a man of such honour and integrity in power


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Lord of the Flies


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
23 February 2020 10:50:19


 


If people run around like headless chickens some of these things may indeed happen. Given much of the nonsense that normally spreads on social media the real danger is the perception of risk not the actual threat (if that makes sense). I’m just glad we don’t react to the much more prevalent and established flu viruses in the same way.


Referring to a point Chris made, in reality if the virus was more deadly it would almost certainly spread more slowly. The most deadly viruses quite often tend to be self-limiting. The biggest threat would be one that mutated to become very slow acting, highly contagious and with high mortality. Thankfully Covid-19 doesn’t fit that description based on all available evidence.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Good post  


If that wasn't how things worked we possibly wouldn't be worrying about Covid-19 because the human race would not exist as we know it.


Now pure speculation on my part about how things will develop: I expect the number of cases outside to China to keep increasing for a while, perhaps another few weeks. Thereafter a steady decline will begin.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 10:50:57


Public hysteria fuelled by the media is the biggest threat, not the virus itself


We have already seen a lot of irrational behaviour, with a large spike in hate crimes against Chinese looking people.


Our culture and society have been dumbed down over decades and mob mentality can easily take over. Only strong and sensible political leadership can keep the ship from sinking. Just as well we have a man of such honour and integrity in power


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I agree completely with all of your post.  Err, except the last sentence. The media control this country and it is they who control the hysteria.  They just need to act responsibly for once!  Of course there’s no accounting for social media!


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Ally Pally Snowman
23 February 2020 10:53:11

Some new numbers today ,Italy 34 new cases, Iran 15 and 3 deaths official. Much worse figures unofficially for Iran. South Korea 170 and one death. Japan 12 new cases. These 4 countries are the ones currently really struggling to keep it under control.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 10:58:35
Official Chinese figures have deaths dropped below 100 for today and new cases below 1000, which does suggest closing everything down might work, not sure how that can be maintained for weeks on end though.
They let it spread too far in the first few weeks when warnings were clear enough.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 10:58:44


 


Good post  


If that wasn't how things worked we possibly wouldn't be worrying about Covid-19 because the human race would not exist as we know it.


Now pure speculation on my part about how things will develop: I expect the number of cases outside to China to keep increasing for a while, perhaps another few weeks. Thereafter a steady decline will begin.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think that too!  There’s still uncertainty of course but given what we already know, I also think the mortality rate will be much lower than we feared, with a greater number of mild or undetected cases.


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Brian Gaze
23 February 2020 11:00:11

Suggestion for fake news: The strong winds affecting much of western Europe have been engineered by the (strike out as appropriate) US/Russian/Chinese to spread the COVID-19 virus across competitor countries.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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The Beast from the East
23 February 2020 11:03:56


The media control this country and it is they who control the hysteria.  They just need to act responsibly for once!  Of course there’s no accounting for social media!


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Good luck with that!


Bad news sells papers


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
23 February 2020 11:05:47


Suggestion for fake news: The strong winds affecting much of western Europe have been engineered by the (strike out as appropriate) US/Russian/Chinese to spread the COVID-19 virus across competitor countries.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Up there with the woman on QT who blamed the Floods on the EU banning dredging. A lie that went unchallenged again by Fiona Bruce


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
23 February 2020 11:08:55


 


/shrug.


I really don't get all the fuss over this, considering that thousands of people die in the UK every year from flu and there's nary a mention of it on the news.


From 2018:


"The failings contributed to the worst flu season for seven years, with 15,000 deaths from the virus, around twice the average figure, and the worst NHS performance on record."


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/30/winter-deaths-hit-highest-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/


If this new flu does get out and about, so be it. It might be unpleasant if you catch it, but it's not going to end civilisation as we know it!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


I'm not suggesting people should run around in a hysterical panic but its definitely worse than flu. You only need to see how countries are responding to it. China is crippling itself at the moment economically to try and keep a lid on it. School closures planned for south Korea and Italy now. 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
23 February 2020 11:11:35


I'm not suggesting people should run around in a hysterical panic but its definitely worse than flu. You only need to see how countries are responding to it. China is crippling itself at the moment economically to try and keep a lid on it. School closures planned for south Korea and Italy now. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It could be worse than the flu but that is NOT why countries are responding in this way. The reason is the virus is believed to be new in humans and trying to prevent if from becoming established makes good sense. Even if the mortality rate was the same as the common cold it would be logical to try and stop it whilst there is a chance.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 11:15:26


Good luck with that!


Bad news sells papers


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I’m not holding my breath!  If they think it out properly though,  (not holding it with that either) spooking people into isolation will mean they won’t venture out to buy newspapers, so they won’t sell!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Brian Gaze
23 February 2020 11:17:36


I’m not holding my breath!  If they think it out properly though,  (not holding it with that either) spooking people into isolation will mean they won’t venture out to buy newspapers, so they won’t sell!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I'm told they make all their money online now. It actually helps them if people spend more time looking for flesh on the sidebar of shame rather than meeting their mates for a drink or meal. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 11:35:16


I'm told they make all their money online now. It actually helps them if people spend more time looking for flesh on the sidebar of shame rather than meeting their mates for a drink or meal. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

  That’s it then!  We’re stuffed!  Our only hope is for power cuts!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Ally Pally Snowman
23 February 2020 11:36:47


 


It could be worse than the flu but that is NOT why countries are responding in this way. The reason is the virus is believed to be new in humans and trying to prevent if from becoming established makes good sense. Even if the mortality rate was the same as the common cold it would be logical to try and stop it whilst there is a chance.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


We also dont know the death rate yet the numbers from China are unreliable. 0.1% - 5% seems the zone. Both very high. 


Another cruise ship passenger has died the 3rd to die of the virus.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
23 February 2020 11:58:28


 


Another cruise ship passenger has died the 3rd to die of the virus.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Wonder what the demographics were on the cruise? The old trope is that they're for the well fed, the newly-wed and the nearly dead. If it's the latter then no surprise that they're dying...


 


 


Leysdown, north Kent
speckledjim
23 February 2020 12:30:46


 


Wonder what the demographics were on the cruise? The old trope is that they're for the well fed, the newly-wed and the nearly dead. If it's the latter then no surprise that they're dying...


 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


The first 2 were in their 80s and had underlying health conditions.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Retron
23 February 2020 13:40:49


The first 2 were in their 80s and had underlying health conditions.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


No surprises there, then. I daresay if they caught normal flu they'd have been on thin ice, too.


(That's not to downplay the seriousness of flu, be it the novel kind or the ordinary kind, but if you're old and ill then it's no surprise if flu of any kind finishes you off. It'd be more surprising if it were people in their 30s, for example and yes - I know some of the novel flu deaths have been people in that age. Unlucky for them!)


Leysdown, north Kent

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