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bowser
22 February 2020 08:25:45


 


That's why IMO it is best to consultant the government website and WHO. I posted direct links to both yesterday but they were roundly ignored. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


i think most governments have been mostly on the ball with this including our own, however, I’m not convinced about the WHO (or at least the version ran by Tedros). They seem more reactive and appeasing to the Chinese government than precautionary and proactive. The travel advice regarding China a 3-4 weeks ago was a case in point. Genie seems to be out of the bottle now.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2020 08:30:47


 


I have been following Q's postings with interest. I don't agree with all his assertions by any means, but on the other hand he is not setting out to be a diplomat and pussyfoot around the topic. He does not need me to defend his approach. He is posting items from his many searches that he has judged to be relevant and interesting, even concerning. His style is succinct, even abrupt, and he has sometimes been wrong in his extrapolations. Were he one of my students I would say: "Explain that you are gathering information as part of a "thought experiment"; and the derivative information you find may be of limited value, inadequate or even be wrong. Explain why you find it relevant and interesting - give weight to your judgements. Give your sources and explain what the gaps are in the information." He probably assumes we will take all this as a given - and I am sure he will correct me if I am wrong in my observations here.


I would go on to say that Q's efforts to find and present information are to be encouraged, same goes for all posters here. He need not trouble to butter them up with sweetness and light, or elegant prose, but it would be helpful to have a more critical interpretation of his data, and more of a sense of "But I can't be sure because..." and "I could be wrong", as we can all be confident there is a lot more of this story to emerge, not all of it positive. Were he to do that I believe a good deal of heated exasperation would evaporate from this thread.



Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Good post.  I’ve tried that approach with Q on other threads.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Roger Parsons
22 February 2020 08:32:46


Good post.  I’ve tried that approach with Q on other threads.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


DrM nails it every time. R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2020 08:49:16


 


Or not commented on as (hopefully) most people will, as you recommend, just use these or other equally reliable sources.


More generally trying to predict the spread of a virus especially a new one is nigh on impossible. Caz, GtW and Joe weren’t lucky as such, just not very unlucky. The current chances in most countries of contracting Covid-19 is statistically tiny. In this country currently the risk is essentially insignificant from zero. If the virus does become widespread it may end up being like the flu in one if its forms. It is just impossible to know. In “less developed” countries it is not/will not be possible to restrict the spread of the virus and I’m not convinced many more developed countries could either. 


Common sense and perspective are very important.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 Absolutely!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2020 08:51:25


 


DrM nails it every time. R.



Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

  It’s his consistent common sense approach!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Quantum
22 February 2020 09:09:16

433 cases now in SK, additional 224. At this rate SK will overtake China in less than a week (in terms of daily cases) with this exponential behaviour.


Hopefully they can slow this down.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2020 09:10:57

I think the moral of the story is be nice life is too short.


 


Anyway back to the dodgy Chinese numbers  31 new cases outside Hubei reported today . South Korea had 229 today alone.


2 Beijing hospitals under quarantine because of rampant Covid19  infection but only 1 new official case in Beijing.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
22 February 2020 09:13:02


I’m quite sure you do believe it and I can see why, but have you read all this thread?  Try looking at it from Gandalf’s view and you might understand why this has become personal.  


Q was posting about the dire situation in Singapore and that they’d lost control etc, yet Gandalf, Joe and I were there and it was nothing like that.   Why would anyone want to make a serious situation even more serious?


Hopefully we can continue this thread amicably with facts and real news.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


It did look like that in Singapore when I posted it given the number of local transmissions. Thankfully the SK government stopped the virus entering an exponential phase of growth and I welcome that good news.


However South korea, Iran and potentially Japan do look to have reached that point now.


Should add 'losing control' doesn't mean that everyone will immediately get it. Even in China 100k people is still a tiny percentage of the population. However entering the exponential growth phase of the disease constitutes, imo, losing control. Singapore managed to stop it, I'm not confident SK will do the same. Hopefully I'm wrong.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2020 09:21:48

Latest developments Italy 13 more cases and another death. Italy now has 30 + cases and 2 deaths from pretty much nowhere a couple days ago.


 


Iran 10 more cases and 1 more death.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
speckledjim
22 February 2020 09:40:46


 


It did look like that in Singapore when I posted it given the number of local transmissions. Thankfully the SK government stopped the virus entering an exponential phase of growth and I welcome that good news.


However South korea, Iran and potentially Japan do look to have reached that point now.


Should add 'losing control' doesn't mean that everyone will immediately get it. Even in China 100k people is still a tiny percentage of the population. However entering the exponential growth phase of the disease constitutes, imo, losing control. Singapore managed to stop it, I'm not confident SK will do the same. Hopefully I'm wrong.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'm confident that Japan have the virus under control - 110 cases in total and only 1 new case today. Current recovery rate is 20% and there are only 5 people in a serious/critical condition.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Roger Parsons
22 February 2020 09:47:22


I'm confident that Japan have the virus under control - 110 cases in total and only 1 new case today. Current recovery rate is 20% and there are only 5 people in a serious/critical condition.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


WHO are concerned, not confident, and say anything could still happen - to paraphrase: "steady as she goes, but be prepared for a worse case scenario..." I suggest you read:


Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
speckledjim
22 February 2020 09:56:04


 


WHO are concerned, not confident, and say anything could still happen - to paraphrase: "steady as she goes, but be prepared for a worse case scenario..." I suggest you read:


Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


My comment was about Japan 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2020 10:30:02


 


I'm confident that Japan have the virus under control - 110 cases in total and only 1 new case today. Current recovery rate is 20% and there are only 5 people in a serious/critical condition.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


Id agree it doesn't look like Japan has lost control yet but NHK have at least 10 new cases today. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
22 February 2020 10:32:05


 


That's why IMO it is best to consultant the government website and WHO. I posted direct links to both yesterday but they were roundly ignored. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I used the link to the daily news conference and it was, as you'd expect, informative and balanced.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
22 February 2020 10:39:54


 


WHO are concerned, not confident, and say anything could still happen - to paraphrase: "steady as she goes, but be prepared for a worse case scenario..." I suggest you read:


Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Hi Roger, 


I noted those words when I heard them this morning.  There's a line to tread between complacency and undue alarm; most people are walking that line quite well.


It may be that this does take hold and become like flu, i.e. another virus that becomes established and which some sections of the population need some protection against. I've seen suggestions that it may die down in the northern hemisphere summer and maybe a vaccine will be produced before too far into next winter.


I have a question about the higher rate of mutation of RNA viruses: do we end up like flu where a new variant of a Covid-19 vaccine will be needed each year?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
22 February 2020 10:42:27


 


I'm confident that Japan have the virus under control - 110 cases in total and only 1 new case today. Current recovery rate is 20% and there are only 5 people in a serious/critical condition.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


It's why I only said potentially. Japan does have less experience than SK though, SK just seems to have got extremely unlucky so Japan is still a cause for concern.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
22 February 2020 10:48:05


 


It's why I only said potentially. Japan does have less experience than SK though, SK just seems to have got extremely unlucky so Japan is still a cause for concern.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Ever been to Japan, Q? It's the only place I've ever been to which has quarantine desks on the way to immigration, with officers standing around monitoring people for signs of illness. They're very cute on catching potential infectious people on the way in.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
22 February 2020 10:57:47


 


.


It may be that this does take hold and become like flu, i.e. another virus that becomes established and which some sections of the population need some protection against. I've seen suggestions that it may die down in the northern hemisphere summer and maybe a vaccine will be produced before too far into next winter.


I have a question about the higher rate of mutation of RNA viruses: do we end up like flu where a new variant of a Covid-19 vaccine will be needed each year?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


This is probably how things will play out 


Once it became it clear it wasn't as severe as SARS or MERS, and more like a normal flu, the Chinese could have dealt with it very differently. 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
speckledjim
22 February 2020 11:06:41


 


It's why I only said potentially. Japan does have less experience than SK though, SK just seems to have got extremely unlucky so Japan is still a cause for concern.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


In dealing with coronavirus? Or viruses in general?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Roger Parsons
22 February 2020 11:06:50


 My comment was about Japan 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


I noted that, SJ, and if you read the article you will have noted a lot of Asia is covered in the discussion. I have moved from the "particular" to the "general". You may also have noted that I always try to give a link to indicate my sources, in contrast to most posters here! I doubt some ever bother to click before moving on to the next argument!


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
speckledjim
22 February 2020 11:11:01


 


I noted that, SJ, and if you read the article you will have noted a lot of Asia is covered in the discussion. I have moved from the "particular" to the "general". You may also have noted that I always try to give a link to indicate my sources, in contrast to most posters here! I doubt some ever bother to click before moving on to the next argument!


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I did read it but there was no specific mention of Japan. I certainly am not currently confident re SK, China and possibly Indonesia (though supposedly they have no cases) but I do believe the Japanese now have a good handle on it. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Roger Parsons
22 February 2020 11:15:17


I did read it but there was no specific mention of Japan. I certainly am not currently confident re SK, China and possibly Indonesia (though supposedly they have no cases) but I do believe the Japanese now have a good handle on it. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


...the phrase used is "fighting chance" - the measures China and other countries had put in place meant there was still a "fighting chance" of stopping further spread and called on countries to put more resources into preparing for possible outbreaks.


Make of that what you will.


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2020 11:17:12


Latest developments Italy 13 more cases and another death. Italy now has 30 + cases and 2 deaths from pretty much nowhere a couple days ago.


 


Iran 10 more cases and 1 more death.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I find Italy to be the surprise!  Not that I’m surprised it’s there, but that they’ve discovered so many cases in such a short time. Is it that they are more vigilant in screening, or is it a cluster of cases related to the Far East?

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2020 12:01:38

 


It did look like that in Singapore when I posted it given the number of local transmissions. Thankfully the SK government stopped the virus entering an exponential phase of growth and I welcome that good news.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

That’s fair comment but you were posting hearsay with such authority and in complete contrast to those ‘on the scene’.  People take exception to being painted as liars or ignorant.  


Maybe you could read and take note of Roger’s post.  It’s good advice and will save a lot of hard feeling and confusion.  None of us are taking this virus lightly but maybe some are playing it down to balance the panic of others.


Let’s move on now and keep this virus issue in perspective.  None of us know how it will play out but let’s hope we all live to tell the tale!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
22 February 2020 12:07:04


I find Italy to be the surprise!  Not that I’m surprised it’s there, but that they’ve discovered so many cases in such a short time. Is it that they are more vigilant in screening, or is it a cluster of cases related to the Far East?


Originally Posted by: Caz 


There was a cluster relating to one individual, however, there are currently 30 cases in Lombardy, 8 in Veneto and 3 in Rome so it does seem to be spreading further afield.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
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