Resolved CFR for all cases is 8% (rounded), not 9%

I don't think it will end up being that high, my guess is that it will be around 3-4%. I know as much as you though, which is not a lot.

Yeh you are right it's currently sitting on 8.3%. But it is showing signs that it has nearly converged to the true figure and is now falling very slowly. I can't see it getting any lower than 7% now the outbreak nears completion in China and is well past the exponential phase.

I also bought some today (ISA & SIPP).

We think these quarantined tourists in Tenerife are just happily waving to the photographer, but in reality they are just trying to smash the windows and escape 

Back when I was in my 20s I caught chicken pox off one of my colleagues via his daughter who had it - but where I had no contact with her whatsoever.

The comment was about de-risking ie the move from equities into 100% bonds and other low risk investments.

Reducing risk isn't the same.

From the Veneto region of Italy, specifically Padova (I have friends living 10 miles away from Vo' which is the isolated area in the province):

So it seems like they are being very thorough there.

http://www.padovaoggi.it/cronaca/emergenza-coronavirus-padova-26-febbraio-2020.html

Still waiting. We haven't hit peak panic yet.

You greedy capitalist pig, profiting from the misery of the proletariat!

Yeah, I also think there will be more falls and more volatility in general, but I had cashed in a lot back in Nov/Dec and today felt like a good level to put a bit back in.

FYI, just had this at work:

As an aside, I also think "demographic problem" will impact stocks over the longer term (decades). Still real growth to be had in the short to medium but not sure buy, hold and go to sleep is going to work quite as well as it has done.

From The Times:

"There are growing concerns that the prison housing the British-Iranian mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe in Tehran is facing a mass coronavirus outbreak after reports of three cases in a part of the jail. "

Wonder whether the truth will ever come out about the extent of the contagion in Iran? According to the Telegraph, the Iranian authorities are arresting those who post information online, including texts, images and videos - they are suppressing the real truth of the situation.

It has given an opportunity to keep the long tail of stories about Philip Schofield going for a little longer: 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8046447/Phillip-Schofield-airs-concern-self-isolate-amid-coronavirus-fears.html

What a stupid story, why is he wondering whether he should self isolate? There were no known cases in Paris last week (or even now).

I think Jon Snow of C4 has self isolated after touring Iran for several days and that's probably understandable.

And since children are not affected, perhaps God or the Ghost of the Pangolin is trying to save the planet

A mass clearout of elderly Tories is probably the only way Labour can get back into power

Beast - That's in bad taste.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1

Prepublished paper on temperature vs infection rate. Note this is not a study on the direct effect of temperature on the virus.

Anyway the transmission is optimal at about 8.5C and declines for anything higher or lower.

Raise your thermostat to 28.5C just to be sure.

Ireland v Italy 6 nations game called off. Almost certainly the Italy v England game will also go.  Unlikely to be played before Autumn id imagine.  If this outbreak drags on Euro 2020 in serious doubt. 

Worth pointing out for the entirety of January and February Wuhan had pretty much ideal temperatures. Rarely ever going below 0C or above 10C.

I suspect that freeze thaw conditions are also not ideal for the virus as the growth of ice crystals is known to damage protein structures like SARS.

From the BBC (although the ages of the children concerned are not given):

"...

The outbreak of coronavirus in Italy is getting worse, BBC correspondent Bethany Bell reports. The authorities say four children have been infected, the first such cases in this country. Twelve people have died – all of them either elderly or with underlying health problems. Several cases in other European countries have been reported among people who have recently been in northern Italy. On a visit to Rome, the EU’s health commissioner Stella Kyriakides said the situation was a cause for concern but not for panic. Schools, universities, museums, cinemas and theatres remain closed across much of the north. A number of tourists have cancelled their visits. There are fears the outbreak could send Italy’s economy in recession.

..."

I suppose the long term effects of Covid-19 will mostly just be a slight reduction in the annual death rate from 'flu.  

Still don't understand why we're not in global lockdown over influenza though?

Estimated up to 41,000 deaths in the USA alone with around 12.5% of the population infected ....

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Friend with son in Kunming says that his son reports that there have been no new cases in that town for a week.