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speckledjim
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:37:11 PM


One thing I'm interested in seeing a a resolved CFR for cases in countries outside of China (that we can trust, so not Iran for example). Currently resolved CFRs are still very high (33% in SK, 8% in Japan, 86% in Italy) but should more quickly converge than a naive CFR. The Resolved CFR for all cases (including China) is holding steady at 9%. This is what the mortality rate might look like if the Chinese data is reliable and there are not a significant amount of mild, undetected cases.


Essentially the naive CFR might be 'accidentally' right because the lag and mild cases cancel out.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Resolved CFR for all cases is 8% (rounded), not 9%


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
xioni2
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:38:37 PM


 One way in which it's different is that there is more lag because of how long it takes to kill you. The resolved CFR will probably end up being something like 7-8% based on the Chinese data which is what we would expect the naive CFR to rapidally rise to. Assuming it's about 8%, that means for every 1 case in China there needs to be 3 undetected mild ones for the true mortality to end up at 2%.


That does not reassure me.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I don't think it will end up being that high, my guess is that it will be around 3-4%. I know as much as you though, which is not a lot.


 

Quantum
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:39:31 PM


 


Resolved CFR for all cases is 8% (rounded), not 9%


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yeh you are right it's currently sitting on 8.3%. But it is showing signs that it has nearly converged to the true figure and is now falling very slowly. I can't see it getting any lower than 7% now the outbreak nears completion in China and is well past the exponential phase.


 


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:40:46 PM


 I've been drip-feeding my SIPP this week: £1,000 on Monday, another £800 yesterday and £400 today. I fully expect in 18 years (when I can draw on it), those investments will have done me well!


 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I also bought some today (ISA & SIPP).

xioni2
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:46:54 PM

We think these quarantined tourists in Tenerife are just happily waving to the photographer, but in reality they are just trying to smash the windows and escape 


westv
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:50:51 PM


 


We don't know that hot weather kills it off, nor the effect of UV. Either way it's not going to eradicate every single bit of virus.


Children may be unaffected - although I don't know if that's completely accurate - but they can be carriers.  Just like all the other bugs children carry back from school to siblings and parents, do you really want that risk?


There's a first case in South America with someone returning from Italy. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Back when I was in my 20s I caught chicken pox off one of my colleagues via his daughter who had it - but where I had no contact with her whatsoever.


At least it will be mild!
westv
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:53:13 PM


 


Yes, if you're not buying an annuity then that's broadly right - but your attitude to risk might (should) be reassessed as you approach that point.  Hung-ho when you've got 30 years to go is one thing but with a few years before retiring maybe not, unless you're compelled to take risk to try to boost the size of the pot.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The comment was about de-risking ie the move from equities into 100% bonds and other low risk investments.


Reducing risk isn't the same.


At least it will be mild!
Darren S
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 12:56:06 PM

From the Veneto region of Italy, specifically Padova (I have friends living 10 miles away from Vo' which is the isolated area in the province):


there are 71 cases in Veneto, including the outbreak of Limena. It must also be said that most of these 71 infected are asymptomatic and are not hospitalized but simply stay at home as if it were any flu.“


So it seems like they are being very thorough there.


http://www.padovaoggi.it/cronaca/emergenza-coronavirus-padova-26-febbraio-2020.html


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
bowser
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 1:03:00 PM


 


I also bought some today (ISA & SIPP).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Still waiting. We haven't hit peak panic yet.

xioni2
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 1:08:18 PM


 Still waiting. We haven't hit peak panic yet.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


You greedy capitalist pig, profiting from the misery of the proletariat!


Yeah, I also think there will be more falls and more volatility in general, but I had cashed in a lot back in Nov/Dec and today felt like a good level to put a bit back in.

Retron
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 1:09:29 PM

FYI, just had this at work:























GOV.UK





 


 























Department for Education





 












 



We are continuing to keep you updated on the government’s response to COVID-19 (Coronavirus). Public Health England advises that the risk to individuals in the UK remains low.


Advice for those who have travelled recently


Yesterday, the Chief Medical Advisor for England, Chris Whitty updated advice for travellers returning to the UK from specific areas affected by COVID-19, which you can find at:


https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus


Please share this guidance with your staff and cascade as appropriate.


If you have returned from the following specific areas since 19th February, you should call NHS 111 and stay indoors and avoid contact with other people even if you do not have symptoms:










  • Iran

  • Specific lockdown areas in Northern Italy (see link to maps below)

  • Special care zones in South Korea (see link to maps below)

  • Hubei province (returned in the past 14 days – see link to maps below)



If you have returned from the following areas since 19 February and develop symptoms, however mild, you should stay indoors at home and avoid contact with other people immediately and call NHS 111:










  • Northern Italy (defined by a line above, and not including, Pisa, Florence and Rimini – see link to maps below)

  • Vietnam

  • Cambodia

  • Laos

  • Myanmar



If you have a cough, or fever or shortness of breath and have visited any of the following areas in the last 14 days, stay indoors and call NHS 111 informing them of your recent travel:










  • China, apart from Hubei province (see link to maps below)

  • Thailand

  • Japan

  • Republic of Korea, apart from special care zones (see link to maps below)

  • Hong Kong

  • Taiwan

  • Singapore

  • Malaysia

  • Macau



Maps showing affected regions of China, Republic of Korea and Italy


https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas


Advice for those who have travelled recently in a group, such as a school trip


There is no need to manage returning groups any differently. Pupils, students and staff returning from trips to the countries specified above should follow the same advice.


Where to find the latest information


Public Health England blog:
https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/


Guidance for educational settings
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-to-educational-settings-about-covid-19



 


Leysdown, north Kent
bowser
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 1:12:32 PM


 


You greedy capitalist pig, profiting from the misery of the proletariat!


Yeah, I also think there will be more falls and more volatility in general, but I had cashed in a lot back in Nov/Dec and today felt like a good level to put a bit back in.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


As an aside, I also think "demographic problem" will impact stocks over the longer term (decades). Still real growth to be had in the short to medium but not sure buy, hold and go to sleep is going to work quite as well as it has done.

Maunder Minimum
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 1:33:04 PM

From The Times:


"There are growing concerns that the prison housing the British-Iranian mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe in Tehran is facing a mass coronavirus outbreak after reports of three cases in a part of the jail. "


Wonder whether the truth will ever come out about the extent of the contagion in Iran? According to the Telegraph, the Iranian authorities are arresting those who post information online, including texts, images and videos - they are suppressing the real truth of the situation.


New world order coming.
speckledjim
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 2:07:37 PM
All 12 deaths in Italy have been in the over 80s and/or with a pre existing condition.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 2:29:47 PM

It has given an opportunity to keep the long tail of stories about Philip Schofield going for a little longer: 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8046447/Phillip-Schofield-airs-concern-self-isolate-amid-coronavirus-fears.html


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 2:36:26 PM


It has given an opportunity to keep the long tail of stories about Philip Schofield going for a little longer: 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8046447/Phillip-Schofield-airs-concern-self-isolate-amid-coronavirus-fears.html


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


What a stupid story, why is he wondering whether he should self isolate? There were no known cases in Paris last week (or even now).


I think Jon Snow of C4 has self isolated after touring Iran for several days and that's probably understandable.


 

The Beast from the East
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:15:57 PM


Interesting stats from BBC:


The current fatality rate is less than 0.5% for people under the age of 50. But it rises to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people over 80. Meanwhile, nearly 11% of people with diseases of the heart died when infected. As did 7% of people with diabetes and 6% of people with long-term lung problems. The average for healthy people is 0.9%.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


And since children are not affected, perhaps God or the Ghost of the Pangolin is trying to save the planet


A mass clearout of elderly Tories is probably the only way Labour can get back into power


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Hungry Tiger
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:33:55 PM


 


And since children are not affected, perhaps God or the Ghost of the Pangolin is trying to save the planet


A mass clearout of elderly Tories is probably the only way Labour can get back into power


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Beast - That's in bad taste.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Quantum
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:34:18 PM

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1


Prepublished paper on temperature vs infection rate. Note this is not a study on the direct effect of temperature on the virus.


Anyway the transmission is optimal at about 8.5C and declines for anything higher or lower.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:35:31 PM


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1


Prepublished paper on temperature vs infection rate. Note this is not a study on the direct effect of temperature on the virus.


Anyway the transmission is optimal at about 8.5C and declines for anything higher or lower.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Raise your thermostat to 28.5C just to be sure.


Ally Pally Snowman
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:39:58 PM

Ireland v Italy 6 nations game called off. Almost certainly the Italy v England game will also go.  Unlikely to be played before Autumn id imagine.  If this outbreak drags on Euro 2020 in serious doubt. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:41:13 PM

Worth pointing out for the entirety of January and February Wuhan had pretty much ideal temperatures. Rarely ever going below 0C or above 10C.


I suspect that freeze thaw conditions are also not ideal for the virus as the growth of ice crystals is known to damage protein structures like SARS.


 


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Maunder Minimum
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 3:54:57 PM


 


And since children are not affected, perhaps God or the Ghost of the Pangolin is trying to save the planet


A mass clearout of elderly Tories is probably the only way Labour can get back into power


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


From the BBC (although the ages of the children concerned are not given):


"...


The outbreak of coronavirus in Italy is getting worse, BBC correspondent Bethany Bell reports. The authorities say four children have been infected, the first such cases in this country. Twelve people have died – all of them either elderly or with underlying health problems. Several cases in other European countries have been reported among people who have recently been in northern Italy. On a visit to Rome, the EU’s health commissioner Stella Kyriakides said the situation was a cause for concern but not for panic. Schools, universities, museums, cinemas and theatres remain closed across much of the north. A number of tourists have cancelled their visits. There are fears the outbreak could send Italy’s economy in recession.


..."


New world order coming.
Essan
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 4:01:17 PM

I suppose the long term effects of Covid-19 will mostly just be a slight reduction in the annual death rate from 'flu.  

Still don't understand why we're not in global lockdown over influenza though?

Estimated up to 41,000 deaths in the USA alone with around 12.5% of the population infected ....

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 4:12:16 PM

Friend with son in Kunming says that his son reports that there have been no new cases in that town for a week.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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