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nsrobins
26 February 2020 21:32:26


The number of coronavirus cases in Italy has jumped to 400, according to BBC.


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


So any individual who has returned from N Italy is being asked to ‘self quarantine’, schools with kids who have been skiing in Italy are closed, and yet in Lyon tonight there are 3000 people from Turin gathered together in a football stadium.


Can someone explain the logic in that?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
speckledjim
26 February 2020 21:34:31



We can't be far off a pandemic now.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 




So what is the source of this graph? Is it from the WHO? 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
26 February 2020 21:37:13





So what is the source of this graph? Is it from the WHO? 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes and they think a pandemic is now likely and imminent.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
doctormog
26 February 2020 21:42:44





So what is the source of this graph? Is it from the WHO? 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes, it’s from the WHO and as Q should know it is good practice (and courteous) to reference any source used like this. Here is the original report https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200226-sitrep-37-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6126c0a4_2 


The Beast from the East
26 February 2020 21:49:06


 


So any individual who has returned from N Italy is being asked to ‘self quarantine’, schools with kids who have been skiing in Italy are closed, and yet in Lyon tonight there are 3000 people from Turin gathered together in a football stadium.


Can someone explain the logic in that?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


i think the Italian rugby players and fans will also feel very offended. The virus will spread as naturally as any flu virus. No point trying to stop it. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 February 2020 21:50:08


 


Yes and they think a pandemic is now likely and imminent.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


you must be so excited 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
26 February 2020 21:53:52


 


you must be so excited 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


I'm guessing positively priapic.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
26 February 2020 21:58:03


The number of coronavirus cases in Italy has jumped to 400, according to BBC.


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


 


The BBC are very slow with their updates . Latest cases are now up to 453.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
speckledjim
26 February 2020 22:01:50


 


 


I'm guessing positively priapic.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It must be very disappointing for him that the number of active cases has dropped every day since the 18th February.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Heavy Weather 2013
26 February 2020 22:03:04


 


 


The BBC are very slow with their updates . Latest cases are now up to 453.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes, they have been very slow to update their confirmed territory list as well


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
26 February 2020 22:05:34
Why do people in this thread continue to dismiss this as a light version of the flu.

Do you think government's would be isolating towns and cities for just flu?

People need to remember you can have a seasonal flu shot that really reduces the risk. There is nothing for COVID-19.

Thousands are dead, and still people joke about this.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
26 February 2020 22:07:19


 


It must be very disappointing for him that the number of active cases has dropped every day since the 18th February.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Oh for goodness sake. Q has also posted on many occasions the good news threads that have come about. Yet again there is nit picking everything Q says. It’s pathetic childish playground games.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
26 February 2020 22:10:26

Why do people in this thread continue to dismiss this as a light version of the flu.

Do you think government's would be isolating towns and cities for just flu?

People need to remember you can have a seasonal flu shot that really reduces the risk. There is nothing for COVID-19.

Thousands are dead, and stillpeople joke about this.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Symptom severity and fatality rates are similar to flu. 


Why should we panic?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
26 February 2020 22:16:21


 


 


Symptom severity and fatality rates are similar to flu. 


Why should we panic?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


There is no need to panic but its at least 10x more fatal than the worst flu outbreaks. Flu is about 0.1% coronavirus between 1 and 2%


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
26 February 2020 22:24:05

With over a quarter of a million deaths (potentially over 600000) each year from influenza globally I agree it is probably premature to compare this new virus to the flu. Hopefully it (Covid-19) never reaches that level.


Gandalf The White
26 February 2020 22:28:54


 


There is no need to panic but its at least 10x more fatal than the worst flu outbreaks. Flu is about 0.1% coronavirus between 1 and 2%


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Covid-19


Covid-19


 


Any chance of using the correct nomenclature instead of a generic one?


 


Remember that flu would be higher without the vaccine given to vulnerable groups. Further, your quoted 1-2% mortality rate is still an estimate because of the number of mild cases that aren't even being identified.  I suspect that the rate is going to settle at well below 1% and even lower once effective treatments are identified.


But for those with pre-existing medical conditions and the elderly Covid-19 is clearly a threat and will until a vaccine becomes available, most likely not this year.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
26 February 2020 22:33:08


 


Covid-19


Covid-19


 


Any chance of using the correct nomenclature instead of a generic one?


 


Remember that flu would be higher without the vaccine given to vulnerable groups. Further, your quoted 1-2% mortality rate is still an estimate because of the number of mild cases that aren't even being identified.  I suspect that the rate is going to settle at well below 1% and even lower once effective treatments are identified.


But for those with pre-existing medical conditions and the elderly Covid-19 is clearly a threat and will until a vaccine becomes available, most likely not this year.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Naive CFRs are not mortality rates.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Gandalf The White
26 February 2020 22:34:12


 


Oh for goodness sake. Q has also posted on many occasions the good news threads that have come about. Yet again there is nit picking everything Q says. It’s pathetic childish playground games.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Whereas trotting out baseless conspiracy theories, questioning official data, misquoting figures and posting alarmist comments are all perfectly grown-up behaviours.  Fascinating.


I'll just remind you that Q is on record as saying Covid-19 was out of control in Singapore: it wasn't and never has been.  He also said there would be an epidemic across Europe by the beginning of February and 3-4 weeks on there still isn't.  


I disagree with your assessment of his posting record - most of what he posts is conjecture bordering on alarmist; that's when he's not being critical of other posters who challenge him.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
26 February 2020 22:36:53


 


 


Symptom severity and fatality rates are similar to flu. 


Why should we panic?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


That's simply not true.


Normal Flu does not kill health workers in their twenties, thirties and forties. Normal flu does not lead to fibrosis of the lung in such large numbers. Normal flu does not so agressively attack the immune system and lower white blood cell counts. 


 


Fatality rates are not similar to regular flu. 0.1% vs 2-8% (depending on how many undetected mild cases there are). 1-2 orders of magntidue worse in severity.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Gandalf The White
26 February 2020 22:40:00


 


Naive CFRs are not mortality rates.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But it's scarcely an issue when there's so much uncertainty about the number of mild cases not being reported.


Once the professionals have the data we will know the real mortality rate and an idea of the distribution.  Until then it's guesswork and not worth nitpicking about.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
26 February 2020 22:41:16

And in MOST cases Q at this VERY early stage it seems that Covid-19 is relatively mild in a way that the flu usually is not. It is a different pathogen and we are still learning about it. Time will answer a lot of questions scientifically that are currently being addressed in other ways.


Quantum
26 February 2020 22:44:18


 


Whereas trotting out baseless conspiracy theories, questioning official data, misquoting figures and posting alarmist comments are all perfectly grown-up behaviours.  Fascinating.


I'll just remind you that Q is on record as saying Covid-19 was out of control in Singapore: it wasn't and never has been.  He also said there would be an epidemic across Europe by the beginning of February and 3-4 weeks on there still isn't.  


I disagree with your assessment of his posting record - most of what he posts is conjecture bordering on alarmist; that's when he's not being critical of other posters who challenge him.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I said it showed signs of going out of control at the same time you claimed all cases had direct links to china when only 1/3 did. In any case that exact thing happened in Italy, Iran and South Korea. It's bloody difficult to predict when/where it will happen and I never claimed that I was always going to be able to call it right.


I do not recall saying there would be an epidemic by the beginning of February.


And I was also one of the first posters in here to comment when the cases in China and Hubei showed signs of no longer being in the exponential phase. I believe I did that in the first week of February. You selectively ignore half the posts I make so you can claim they are all alarmist. They arn't.


And ffs 'questioning official data'? You expect me to not question a communist dictatorship that runs concentration camps and literally spent the first month arresting and dissapearing people that spoke out about the threat of the virus? Of course I will question it.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
26 February 2020 22:47:49


 


But it's scarcely an issue when there's so much uncertainty about the number of mild cases not being reported.


Once the professionals have the data we will know the real mortality rate and an idea of the distribution.  Until then it's guesswork and not worth nitpicking about.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It is an issue. If you use naive CFRs during the early stage of an epidemic to imply mortality rates you are going to get figures that are wildly unreliable. WHO has even thrown doubt about how many of these mild cases there are so we shouldn't even assume there are enough to cancel out the effect of the lag.


And if there are it is not good news because it means a large majority of cases have gone undetected which means an even higher R0 and more people eventually catching it.


If the mortality rate is 1% and it becomes ubiqitous then that would be devastating.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
26 February 2020 22:49:20

9 new cases for Germany today and their Health minister says they are at the start of an epidemic. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
westv
26 February 2020 22:56:10
I see mention of 81% of people having mild symptoms. Are there many reported cases where the person showed no symptoms at any time?
At least it will be mild!

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