Is there any chance that you might stop telling lies, Q?

Your recollection of events in Singapore and our exchanges is so awry that your attempts to claim you were right are just ridiculous.

Where did you magic the 1/3 figure?  I don't understand why you are now claiming our discussion was about 'direct links' when I never said that: what I said that was that all bar a couple of cases were traceable to known clusters that had a visitor from China as the trigger.

 

As for your last sentence, that's up there with your more bizarre efforts.

 

---

 

I assume that's the figure for known cases because obviously if someone has no or almost no symptoms they're not going to be included in the data.  That would suggest that 81% is at the bottom of the potential range.

But that clearly doesn't fit some people's agenda in here.

---

You claimed, at the time, all cases had direct links to China (which logically means no local transmission). At that time 1/3 cases in Singapore were not directly linked to China. You later conceded 1, and now 2 were not directly linked to China. Singapore did identify all the transmission chains but several were 2nd generation or 3rd generation, i.e not directly linked to China.

 

---

Near Asymptomatic cases have been included in the data. The Singapore/French Ski guy comes to mind. Since most countries are testing by close contacts of confirmed cases mild/asymptomatic cases will be recorded. At a reduced rate, for sure. In the case of the diamond princess I suspect near all of the asymtomatic cases have been recorded or will be recorded.

 

---

No, only those who have returned from the 11 small towns, total population 55,000, have been asked to self-quarantine.
Those who have returned from the rest of Northern Italy should quarantine if they have symptoms.

Not all, and those which have are not following government guidelines, but exercising extra caution. In a few cases, one or two kids have reported possible symptoms.

Presumably they haven't got symptoms?

---

I'm glad most on here are remaining level-headed, and not getting hysterical. Helps keep a sense of perspective. 

---

So, the person who is showing absolutely no symptoms and hasn't been contacted is somehow being recorded.... Which was my point.

Right....

 

---

Trump saying move along, nothing to see here. And the Democrats are to blame

---

I must of mid-read the DHE advice on returning from trips to ‘N Italy’ not specific towns. 
If the virus is so easily transmitted (perception, no data) then why not do an Elsa and just let it go. Use the money and resources treating the more serious cases and let the majority of people heal themselves as most of us do with flu viruses. 

---

I reckon that's what's likely to happen in the end, once this "panic, panic, try and stop it spreading, panic" phase is over. Given that people are still criss-crossing the world on a daily basis, it's inevitable that this will spread - it's much milder than SARS or MERS or avian flu, for example, and those are rather more self-limiting due to their high death rates.

The fly in the ointment is for those who are old, or who have elderly relatives. I can understand their concern, but for the likes of me - with no elderly relatives, and at the age of 40 - there's not much to be worried about. The BBC says that the death rate for under-50s is "below 0.5%", and that'll include the higher death rates for those with heart disease, diabetes etc.

In the meantime, looks like another 2% share discount this morning, so more money goes into the SIPP!

EDIT: There's an interesting point on Slashdot this morning, too. It seems in the States there's massive price-gouging going on with those paper masks, especially industrial ones like the 3M 95 ones. That's having a knock-on effect on people who genuinely need them - tradesmen, people who are ill rather than worried about catching flu and so on.

---

If you fire into a crowd you are likely to kill someone. [The old army team was "firing promiscuous"] That does not mean you are a good shot. You hit them at random. There are correct posts on here, there must be, but we do not yet know which they are. Science is predictive, so it does not matter if it turns out you were wrong, but you can't look back and say "I knew I was right all the time!" That's why medics and biologists are cautious in their comments.

I have been involved in biological recording for years and have learned at least one thing - distribution maps of species are as likely to be maps of recorders' activity as they are to be a full and true reflection of the distribution of any organism. It is important not to abandon our critical faculties and to remember Richard Feynman's caveat: "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."

Roger

---

 Agreed Roger.

I also think that the outcome/scenario that Neil and Darren suggest may be the most (potentially only) realistic one until the development of an effective vaccine, if that proves to be possible.

---

We obviously don't have the numbers but there are bound to be a significant number out there with no symptoms in addition to those who just keep quiet about, and those that just think they have the flu. It's possible that the mortality rate could be well below 1% and in line with what 'normal flu' would kill without the vaccines we have in place.

---

If this had been taken more seriously at least a month ago it could have been largely contained in China with just a few sparks to deal with as we saw earlier.
But even now the outcomes are being downplayed.
What will happen now is economic shutdown with schools and most events cancelled or people just not daring to go near large crowds anywhere for several months (at least).

By using the most draconian lockdowns and forcible quarantines imaginable, the Chinese have started to see reductions of new cases but here people think we may as well just let it rip?
One thing's for sure the tourist industry is pretty well on hold for this year.
So not all bad then.

---

Slightly OT and I get what you're saying. But, your words imply it's a 50/50 chance such records are wrong? I doubt that, though I guess it's what 'full and true' means and you might mean they're not spot on - thought what does spot on mean . Certainly what the BTO do provides useful information?

As to CV, my view has changed a little in that it may be it will kill people and those who are old/ill are at risk a bit more than I thought. But, stopping such a virus was near on impossible so delay and prepared was the best that could be done.

I'm still amazed people are buying masks. My local farm wholesales has full face shields (which would be better, you see medics wearing them) but they don't look cool, and they cost £20. People will spend £5 for something useless rather that £20 for something effective but looks naff/an over reaction...

Well, we have a pandemic, whether the WHO are minded to call it such or not.

As ever, ideology has trumped protecting people and populations.

 



Open borders to the outside, open border to the inside.
“heaven” for criminals, illegal immigration and now illness.
 
We have been let down by the system again -

All travel to and from China should have been suspended at the outset.
All tourism to the Far East should have been stopped at the outset.
All cruises in the region should have been stopped at the outset.
All non-essential movement should have been stopped at the outset.
 
Once Italy became an epi-centre, borders should have been closed as soon as practicable - unfortunately, Italy coincided with half term holidays and all those ski trips - Denmark has announced its first cases today - a Danish family who went skiing in Italy last week.
 
There is no stopping the spread now. People say "oh don't worry, no worse than the flu and mortality rate is low" - that is complacent nonsense. It is not the headline death rate which counts, but the 20% hospitalisation rate which is the massive issue - there is no immunity to this virus and healthcare systems across Europe, including the NHS, will be overwhelmed if we end up in similar situations to China and Iran.
 

---

You have entirely missed my point, Dev. This is completely relevant to the zealous speculative postings on this thread. The dots on a map, be it medical cases or species records [both are biological records] do not tell you what is happening in the blank bits. I will leave someone else to explain that - as my previous post said what I wished.

"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."

Roger

---

I totally agree. A key point is China has only managed to get this under control (suspected - I am still convinced) by some of the most draconian measures on offer.

Some people are dismissing this as just the flu. I suspect they will revise this judgement in due course. The WHO has utterly failed in their response to this crisis.

---

Meanwhile in Kuwait:

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Kuwait now has leapt from 26 to 43, according to a health ministry official.

The official said that all the cases involved people who had been to Iran, Reuters reports.

---

A country which is taking the situation seriously is Saudi Arabia (oddly enough) - has closed down all religious pilgrimages for the time being - does not want to become another Iran.

P.S. There is some irony here - Iran failed miserably to keep the virus out by keeping channels to China wide open in recent weeks - now China is worried about travellers from Iran:

"Shanghai is taking action to try and identify people who came into contact with a coronavirus patient who arrived in the city from Iran, the local government said.

The patient, who has not been identified, was diagnosed in Zhongwei, a city in the northwestern region of Ningxia, some 2,000km (1,240 miles) away, on Wednesday.

Authorities in Zhongwei said the patient arrived in Shanghai on February 20 after flying from Iran via Moscow. The patient then travelled to Zhongwei via the city of Lanzhou by train."

Well, that will be another several hundred infections.

---

The WHO make a mockery of their own definition:

What is a pandemic?

24 February 2010

A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease.

An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges and spreads around the world, and most people do not have immunity. Viruses that have caused past pandemics typically originated from animal influenza viruses.

Source: https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/pandemic/en/

---

Here is something concerning - a Japanese woman has tested positive twice:

"A woman working as a tour-bus guide in Japan has tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time, Osaka's prefectural government said on Wednesday, the first person in the country to do so amid growing concerns about the spread of the infection."

You have to understand that when the immune system defeats a virus, the virus can still be present in your body, but dormant - chickenpox is the classic example, where there can be an outbreak of shingles, years after the initial infection.

The problem is this - if someone can overcome the virus and then it breaks out again, they will most probably become contagious once more.

---

My daughter's firm (a London investment house) is having a work-from-home day for everyone today as a rehearsal in case they have to close the office, mostly thinking about not exposing staff to infection on crowded trains if CV becomes widespread.

---

SK saw a 40% increase in new cases today. Up from the 29% from the day before.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

---

Yes, often a virus will hide.

This is why HIV has proven very difficult to cure. It hides in very difficult places to reach.

This as you have illustrated above is very concerning indeed.

---