That is incorrect. You are assuming that 'serious' equates to requiring intensive care. Additionally the current figure is 18% not 20%.
The stats I saw from China suggested 5% became critically ill, which I think better equates to requiring intensive care. Also bear in mind that the stats are dominated by China and that a lot of progress has been made in the last two months to understand which treatments work and to identify people earlier. Obviously the sooner treatments are started the better the outcomes.
Some helpful stats to get this into perspective:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE
|
DEATH RATE* |
80+ years old
|
14.8%
|
70-79 years old
|
8.0%
|
60-69 years old
|
3.6%
|
50-59 years old
|
1.3%
|
40-49 years old
|
0.4%
|
30-39 years old
|
0.2%
|
20-29 years old
|
0.2%
|
10-19 years old
|
0.2%
|
0-9 years old |
no fatalities
|
The higher rates in those 70 and above almost certainly links to the higher risk with pre-existing conditions:
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions 0.9%
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White