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Quantum
02 March 2020 17:26:35


 


It seems the govt has decided on the laissez faire approach, if we end up like Italy or Iran, Boris is toast


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I thought you had adopted the laissez faire 'it's just the flu' approach yourself?


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Beast from the East
02 March 2020 17:27:05

I don't think anyone is panicking on here. Over-cautious perhaps....

Big relief rally in the Dow today. 

Originally Posted by: bowser 


They are hardly testing people and seems Trump also going to down the "let it happen" route. Interesting experiment anyway 


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Gavin D
02 March 2020 17:27:42

Death toll in Italy rises to 52

Brian Gaze
02 March 2020 17:28:38
Italy up 335. That puts the cat among the pigeons.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
02 March 2020 17:29:07


 


I thought you had adopted the laissez faire 'it's just the flu' approach yourself?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I have since changed my position after learning more about it. The Chinese and Korean approach is correct. They will both recover more quickly whilst this will rumble on in America and many parts of Europe all year


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
02 March 2020 17:31:47

Italy up 335. That puts the cat among the pigeons.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


They are testing lots of people, that's all


Im sure we have hundreds of hidden cases already. A few people were coughing in the pub last night. I moved away and decided to pee outside on the way home in someone's driveway


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
speckledjim
02 March 2020 17:32:29
52 deaths in Italy and 1704 cases. That cases figure is clearly incorrect. If (for arguments sake) we assume a 1% mortality for a developed country with good healthcare then they should have at least 3 times that number.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Justin W
02 March 2020 17:32:50


 


They are testing lots of people, that's all


Im sure we have hundreds of hidden cases already. A few people were coughing in the pub last night. I moved away and decided to pee outside on the way home in someone's driveway


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Classy. You should have taken a dump while you were at it.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
speckledjim
02 March 2020 17:33:54

52 deaths in Italy and 1704 cases. That cases figure is clearly incorrect. If (for arguments sake) we assume a 1% mortality for a developed country with good healthcare then they should have at least 3 times that number.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Total is actually just over 2000 - still too low.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
02 March 2020 17:34:16


 


Classy. You should have taken a dump while you were at it.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I'm not French

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
02 March 2020 17:35:46


 


They are testing lots of people, that's all


Im sure we have hundreds of hidden cases already. A few people were coughing in the pub last night. I moved away and decided to pee outside on the way home in someone's driveway


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


335 is a small increase not a big one. A lot lower in absolute and percentage terms than yesterday. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
02 March 2020 17:38:14

My work is checking readiness for everyone to work from home. One colleague just returned from Thailand/Singapore/Vietnam and has been told to work from home for a fortnight and not make any client meetings in that time. Sensible. 


What is a bit of an overreaction is another colleague returning from a week in Spain (landed back yesterday) also being told to work from home today and tomorrow at least until they decide on the policy for people having travelled abroad.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
02 March 2020 17:38:27


 


335 is a small increase not a big one. A lot lower in absolute and percentage terms than yesterday. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I see. When will the media get bored and move onto Syria/Turkey and refugees. That's probably a bigger problem actually

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 March 2020 17:38:30

A biologist's eye view: Only an insanely badly evolved species would kill off its means of survival.

School science will have told us that predators, parasites and pathogens get no advantage by annihilating their food sources or hosts. They will strike a balance, sooner or later, where their populations can ebb and flow as Gandalf neatly puts it.

Mortality/predation can be thought of as VAT on survival!


Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


But does the virus know that? and preferably sooner.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
02 March 2020 17:39:25


 and decided to pee outside on the way home in someone's driveway


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
02 March 2020 17:40:57


 


But does the virus know that? and preferably sooner.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


 


'Natural selection' through mutation. Evolution in action. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
02 March 2020 17:45:24

People should remember that evolution is a strictly heuristic algorithm.


Consider there is nothing biologically impossible about humans having in built radio systems or deployable wheels but they don't because the intermiediary stages confer no advantages. Evolution tries to walk a species up hill but it can only put us on top of the nearest hill, not find the highest mountain.


So the problem with this virus is that, given the long infection period, there is no immediate and obvious benefit to being less deadly. If there was to be a perfectly designed virus you would make it take a long time to kill you because there would be a weaker selection pressure to make the thing less harmful.


That all being said it will still probably become more benign over time, and you would hope it would be more likely to mutate into something less harmful than something more harmful.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
02 March 2020 17:45:52

52 deaths in Italy and 1704 cases. That cases figure is clearly incorrect. If (for arguments sake) we assume a 1% mortality for a developed country with good healthcare then they should have at least 3 times that number.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Basic mistake there unfortunately, you get diagnosed and then it takes a week or two to die.
You can't take today's infected numbers and deaths and calculate anything meaningful, however over time a trend might be useful


 


 


 

North York Moors weather 
speckledjim
02 March 2020 17:52:27



Basic mistake there unfortunately, you get diagnosed and then it takes a week or two to die.
You can't take today's infected numbers and deaths and calculate anything meaningful, however over time a trend might be useful


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: four 


Agreed but based on other countries it feels that the number is too low. As you say though we need to wait and see how it plays out.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
02 March 2020 17:57:31


My work is checking readiness for everyone to work from home. One colleague just returned from Thailand/Singapore/Vietnam and has been told to work from home for a fortnight and not make any client meetings in that time. Sensible. 


What is a bit of an overreaction is another colleague returning from a week in Spain (landed back yesterday) also being told to work from home today and tomorrow at least until they decide on the policy for people having travelled abroad.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Just as likely to get it in Spain now big increase in numbers last couple of days upto 120. Already exporting cases to Portugal.  France as well exporting cases to Senegal.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 March 2020 18:01:10


 


335 is a small increase not a big one. A lot lower in absolute and percentage terms than yesterday. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


It is interesting although they are still not testing enough people their confirmed death rate case ratio is similar to Iran's. But we have two roads now it can be contained or it can't and eventually 50 - 90% of the world's population will get it. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 March 2020 18:08:41

It would seem odd to me if this virus could be contained . It's obviously contagious enough to spread quickly we don't have any immunity and a vaccine won't be ready for at least a year. Countries are not going to quarantine themselves for that long. So it should keep spreading relentlessly. But there is still lots we don't know about it so who knows. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
02 March 2020 18:18:14
I would be exceptionally surprised if the virus could be contained, it would be almost unprecedented.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
speckledjim
02 March 2020 18:18:49


 


 


It is interesting although they are still not testing enough people their confirmed death rate case ratio is similar to Iran's. But we have two roads now it can be contained or it can't and eventually 50 - 90% of the world's population will get it. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


In 2009 H1N1 spread quickly and experts say it infected 11-21% of the population. Why is covid19 so different that it will infect 50-90% of the population?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
02 March 2020 18:25:00


 


In 2009 H1N1 spread quickly and experts say it infected 11-21% of the population. Why is covid19 so different that it will infect 50-90% of the population?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


I believe other "flu's' have infected such a percentage.  I've also heard a few experts say its more than possible with Covid19.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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