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Maunder Minimum
03 March 2020 16:04:05


interesting breakdown of the latest 12 UK cases all travel related 8 from Italy and one each from Japan, Singapore,  Iran and Germany.  UK total now 51


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The encouraging thing is that none of those cases acquired the infection locally.


 

New world order coming.
Bugglesgate
03 March 2020 16:05:51


 


Yes, thanks to the 21,000 cuts from YOUR bloody government


And yes, I know they won the election, so the plebs cannot complain. 


In fact, feck em, this country deserves everthing thats coming to it. Either this or Brexit. Whichever does most damage


 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


 


.... and  we are facing a  national health threat  with an NHS that has been whittled away for years by the  b'stards 


 


 Still, at least they are  in power to reap the consequences !


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 16:07:37

France is reporting 13 today. A good day for them if that figure is up to date. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
03 March 2020 16:09:47

Boycott Carex


 



Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
03 March 2020 16:10:42


 


The encouraging thing is that none of those cases acquired the infection locally.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Agreed, however, with it coming from lots of different sources now it feels like eventually it will take hold.


I guess we don't know is when they arrived back and how long they have been walking around. That x 2 batches of twelve cases in 48rs, it wont belong before its tens, to tens of hundreds a day.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
The Beast from the East
03 March 2020 16:12:06


France is reporting 13 today. A good day for them if that figure is up to date. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, wont be long now before the media circus gets bored and moves on. This story is going to rumble on all year, that doesn't fit the 24 hour news cycle


We need another "superspreader" 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 16:15:22


Some interesting stuff there ,Brian, especially the  take on demographics and analysis of  who it has killed.


I also note the growing notion that the virus is  materially changing as it spreads to different parts of the world.  Part of me wonders if we are picking up, related, existing, viruses with the screening.  Certainly the deaths reported to date could easily be attributed to seasonal colds and flu  if we hadn't  become sensitised to the Chinese  outbreak, especially given the Italian demographics .


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


That had also crossed my mind. I didn't want to float the idea because a) my medical knowledge is next to zilch b) I didn't want to be accused of "complacency" 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
03 March 2020 16:35:43


Boycott Carex


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Why does he look like he's having to concentrate really hard to remember how to wash his hands?


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
speckledjim
03 March 2020 16:51:52
Good news if this turns out to be true


Decline in coronavirus cases in China is "real," WHO official says

The World Health Organization has seen a steady decline in novel coronavirus cases in China since the end of January, including in Hubei province and the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

“We questioned these numbers while we were in China, we scrutinized this data and we believe that this decline is real,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Programme, said during a press briefing on Tuesday.
She said they believe this because of the extent of case finding, contact tracing and testing among other surveillance systems.

Van Kerkhove did not say whether the virus has peaked in China.

“We’ve seen the comprehensive measures that China has taken and … we believe that that has had an impact on changing the natural trajectory of the outbreak in China,” she said. “We believe that this is possible in other countries.”

For countries other than China – including Italy, Iran and Korea – that means having an aggressive approach to looking for contacts, social distancing, hand washing, respiratory etiquette and readying systems, she said.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
xioni2
03 March 2020 16:54:58



Decline in coronavirus cases in China is "real," WHO official says

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Communists!


 

Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 16:55:40


 


Yes, wont be long now before the media circus gets bored and moves on. This story is going to rumble on all year, that doesn't fit the 24 hour news cycle


We need another "superspreader" 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Wrt today it is up to Italy to save their bacon. A big increase is obviously possible. We'll see soon. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 16:56:51

Good news if this turns out to be true


Decline in coronavirus cases in China is "real," WHO official says

The World Health Organization has seen a steady decline in novel coronavirus cases in China since the end of January, including in Hubei province and the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

“We questioned these numbers while we were in China, we scrutinized this data and we believe that this decline is real,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Programme, said during a press briefing on Tuesday.
She said they believe this because of the extent of case finding, contact tracing and testing among other surveillance systems.

Van Kerkhove did not say whether the virus has peaked in China.

“We’ve seen the comprehensive measures that China has taken and … we believe that that has had an impact on changing the natural trajectory of the outbreak in China,” she said. “We believe that this is possible in other countries.”

For countries other than China – including Italy, Iran and Korea – that means having an aggressive approach to looking for contacts, social distancing, hand washing, respiratory etiquette and readying systems, she said.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Remember how the Chinese data was being rubbished by some people in this thread a few days ago. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bugglesgate
03 March 2020 16:59:33


That had also crossed my mind. I didn't want to float the idea because a) my medical knowledge is next to zilch b) I didn't want to be accused of "complacency" 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Well, my  medical  knowledge is also close to zilch ..... and I'm sure I will get accused of complacency


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Gavin D
03 March 2020 17:28:17

Italy have reported 466 new cases and 27 new deaths

Total 2,502

79 deaths


 


Yesterday they reported 340 new cases

Ally Pally Snowman
03 March 2020 17:29:24


 


Wrt today it is up to Italy to save their bacon. A big increase is obviously possible. We'll see soon. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


466 more cases and 27 more deaths. I would say the rate is steady but significant.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 March 2020 17:45:08


 


Remember how the Chinese data was being rubbished by some people in this thread a few days ago. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


WHO has said themselves that this virus is unique and for it to be so contagious and still containable it certainly would be.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
03 March 2020 17:46:36


Italy have reported 466 new cases and 27 new deaths

Total 2,502

79 deaths


 


Yesterday they reported 340 new cases


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Something odd about these figures. Is Italy testing enough. The deaths and cases doesn’t appear at face value to add up

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 17:56:01


 


Something odd about these figures. Is Italy testing enough. The deaths and cases doesn’t appear at face value to add up


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Did you see the earlier article in the Guardian? At least in part the demographics could explain it. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
03 March 2020 17:59:19

WHO says the mortality is about 3.4%. Note that they also claim that there is no resevoir of 'mild cases' to bring the eventual number down.


If it is 3.4% then that would be something like 20-60x more dangerous than seasonal flu.


We also know it's 2-5x more contagious.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
03 March 2020 18:02:07


 


Remember how the Chinese data was being rubbished by some people in this thread a few days ago. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Remember how, despite my skeptism of the Chinese data, I also claimed in early february that the outbreak was probably no longer showing exponential growth. And several weeks ago I also claimed that we had probably seen the peak of the outbreak. In fact I think I was actually the first in here to make that observation.


I was skeptical of the chinese data and I still am. That doesn't mean it's impossible to get anything useful out of it either.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
03 March 2020 18:06:12


WHO says the mortality is about 3.4%. Note that they also claim that there is no resevoir of 'mild cases' to bring the eventual number down.


If it is 3.4% then that would be something like 20-60x more dangerous than seasonal flu.


We also know it's 2-5x more contagious.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Very different to the 1% the UK Chief Medical Officer said today. The very low if any mild cases also goes against UK and others thinking.  Still so much we don't know.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bugglesgate
03 March 2020 18:14:18


Very different to the 1% the UK Chief Medical Officer said today. The very low if any mild cases also goes against UK and others thinking.  Still so much we don't know.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I don't see how cases so mild  that the carrier doesn't seek medical   assistance (or isn't aware they have the virus) can be included in the stats.


How does the WHO know these case don't exist ? How does everyone else know that they do ?  Genuine question.

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 18:18:09


Very different to the 1% the UK Chief Medical Officer said today. The very low if any mild cases also goes against UK and others thinking.  Still so much we don't know. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I said earlier today that I was surprised Whitty was prepared to say that. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
03 March 2020 18:21:25


 


I said earlier today that I was surprised Whitty was prepared to say that. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Perhaps he said it because of the quote from WHO that outside of Hubei the mortality rate was just under 1% for the rest of China

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
03 March 2020 18:23:51

Is there any info yet available on the 29 new Italian deaths? (Age, diagnosed medical conditions etc.)

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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