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Chunky Pea
04 March 2020 08:40:16

Whether to call or not is a tricky one. I've got a chesty cough coming on. I can feel it. Bit of a sore throat, bit tight across the chest. No temperature. Do I call? Aside from Tesco I've only really been out once to a major area recently - the Sage Gateshead for a guitar workshop 2 Saturdays ago!

Originally Posted by: NickR 


Sounds like it could be a bit of a chest infection coming on NickR. Have been there (and am there currently) many times. Hacky cough, tight, painful chest, feels like you are inhaling cobwebs when breathing in and a general feeling of intense fatigue, but all without much sign of fever. No harm in popping into the doc just to make sure. 


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https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 March 2020 08:46:28


Exactly. Hence the government’s expectation that this will spread here. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I think we can expect it to be found anywhere globally and all countries will be looking out for it now.  It makes me wonder how long it actually has been circulating undetected if the Spanish case took 3 weeks to find. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Maunder Minimum
04 March 2020 09:14:10

Wizz Air is the latest carrier to suspend flights to Milan - this is why:


 




New world order coming.
Gavin D
04 March 2020 09:15:58
38 new cases reported in German bringing the total to 240
Heavy Weather 2013
04 March 2020 09:19:12


Wizz Air is the latest carrier to suspend flights to Milan - this is why:


 




Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Yes, my forthcoming trip to Romania next week has now been cancelled by my employer


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Maunder Minimum
04 March 2020 09:25:36

The NYT is reporting the following, but it is impossible to read the full article because it is behind a paywall:



"Coronavirus Live Updates: Global Mortality Rate Reaches 3.4 Percent



The World Health Organization confirmed that Covid-19 is deadlier than the seasonal flu"


New world order coming.
bledur
04 March 2020 09:27:59

Whether to call or not is a tricky one. I've got a chesty cough coming on. I can feel it. Bit of a sore throat, bit tight across the chest. No temperature. Do I call? Aside from Tesco I've only really been out once to a major area recently - the Sage Gateshead for a guitar workshop 2 Saturdays ago!

Not heard of anyone infected in this area yet. I'll probably ride it out and only call if it seems worse than normal, after a couple of days. Aside from anything, what would they tell me to do? Wife and 2 kids live with me.. do I shut myself away in a bedroom for 14 days?

Must be plenty who aren't reporting.

Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


 Yes that is difficult as there always many viruses around causing similiar type symptoms. From what i have read the virus starts with a raised temperature , then 2-3 days of feeling off but not necessarily feeling too ill to work and then it attacks the lungs giving a tight chest , shortness of breath and general lethargy.

Gandalf The White
04 March 2020 09:28:33


 


Yes, my forthcoming trip to Romania next week has now been cancelled by my employer


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The point will come when the risk here is much the same as most places, hot spots aside.  


We’re going to have to deal with another Coronavirus circulating in the population.  To think it was someone selling a wild animal illegally in a market in some unremarkable distant city just three months ago that has triggered all this growing chaos.


All rather sobering, IMO.  All these threats of which people are mostly oblivious.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


bledur
04 March 2020 09:30:34


The NYT is reporting the following, but it is impossible to read the full article because it is behind a paywall:



"Coronavirus Live Updates: Global Mortality Rate Reaches 3.4 Percent



The World Health Organization confirmed that Covid-19 is deadlier than the seasonal flu"


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 Doctor on t.v. just now said that figure is skewed and it is nearer 1% at the moment. I am afraid i did not hear all of it.

Gandalf The White
04 March 2020 09:31:43


The NYT is reporting the following, but it is impossible to read the full article because it is behind a paywall:



"Coronavirus Live Updates: Global Mortality Rate Reaches 3.4 Percent



The World Health Organization confirmed that Covid-19 is deadlier than the seasonal flu"


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


That was reported and discussed here last night.


That figures includes Wuhan and excludes unreported cases: the reality is much lower, particularly outside vulnerable groups.


The figure quoted last night for the UK was 1%; still high and concerning.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 March 2020 09:32:47


 


 Doctor on t.v. just now said that figure is skewed and it is nearer 1% at the moment. I am afraid i did not hear all of it.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Exactly!


Lies, damned lies and statistics - and scaremongering.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
04 March 2020 09:54:38
I'm sensing the UK govt / Whitty has gone a little off piste wrt mortality rates. They could of course be right but their guidance doesn't currently seem fully inline with the WHO.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
NickR
04 March 2020 10:00:38


 


 


 Yes that is difficult as there always many viruses around causing similiar type symptoms. From what i have read the virus starts with a raised temperature , then 2-3 days of feeling off but not necessarily feeling too ill to work and then it attacks the lungs giving a tight chest , shortness of breath and general lethargy.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


No temperature still, no development or worsening of chest. General lethargy is a given since about 2008.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
04 March 2020 10:02:52
To add: the lungs aspect bothers me a little since I am at greater risk of/more susceptible to lung diseases and illnesses as a result of both chemo and radiotherapy some 17 years ago. This is the stage post-treatment when such risks start to rise higher too.
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Saint Snow
04 March 2020 10:10:14

General lethargy is a given since about 2008.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 



 


Over the Feb half-term, my eldest had a cough, dry throat & temperature, and she was laid low for about a week. It's more or less cleared up now.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Maunder Minimum
04 March 2020 10:23:14

Looking likely that Glastonbury will be cancelled this year - the organisers are saying that they are uncertain that it will go ahead.


P.S.


THE European Defence Agency (EDA) in Brussels has confirmed one of its employees has tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19), as the spread of the deadly disease continues to accelerate across the world.


Following the positive test, the EDA has taken the precautionary measure of cancelling all scheduled meeting at its premises until March 13.


-------------------------


New world order coming.
Saint Snow
04 March 2020 10:33:23

Trying to stop this is p*ssing into the wind.


The sooner authorities accept that it's here and many people will catch it, the better. We can then just get on with living our lives without the inconvenience of events being cancelled and people running round like Chicken Licken.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Arcus
04 March 2020 10:43:21


Trying to stop this is p*ssing into the wind.


The sooner authorities accept that it's here and many people will catch it, the better. We can then just get on with living our lives without the inconvenience of events being cancelled and people running round like Chicken Licken


 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


There's certainly no stopping a major outbreak, but I think the issue is trying to ensure a gradual rise in cases rather than a dramatic take-off that would really put a massive strain on the Health Service and the economy - hence (as the chief medical officer has already said this morning) we'll be moving into the "Delay" phase from the "Contain" phase very soon if not already.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Maunder Minimum
04 March 2020 10:50:06


 


There's certainly no stopping a major outbreak, but I think the issue is trying to ensure a gradual rise in cases rather than a dramatic take-off that would really put a massive strain on the Health Service and the economy - hence (as the chief medical officer has already said this morning) we'll be moving into the "Delay" phase from the "Contain" phase very soon if not already.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Precisely the point Arcus. The task for the authorities is to delay and smooth. Delay as much as is possible, to allow spring/summer weather to start to help, and smooth, to allow an overstretched health service to deal with the cases it needs to. ICU beds with ventilators will be at a premium, since experience shows that those who are worst affected suffer from pneumonia like symptoms.


 


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
04 March 2020 10:58:20
It appears to have gone under the radar in the UK if Whitty is right. I assume he probably is. Therefore, we are in a similar situation to Italy a few weeks ago.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
04 March 2020 11:13:53


There's certainly no stopping a major outbreak, but I think the issue is trying to ensure a gradual rise in cases rather than a dramatic take-off that would really put a massive strain on the Health Service and the economy - hence (as the chief medical officer has already said this morning) we'll be moving into the "Delay" phase from the "Contain" phase very soon if not already.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


If the NHS does struggle, it's vital that Labour, the Lib Dems & SNP shout and  loud and often as they can about NHS cuts by the Tories.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gavin D
04 March 2020 11:22:07
Reports Italy are considering a ban on kissing to try and contain the virus.
xioni2
04 March 2020 11:23:51

Reports Italy are considering a ban on kissing to try and contain the virus.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Fingering will still be legal.


 

Maunder Minimum
04 March 2020 11:36:15


If the NHS does struggle, it's vital that Labour, the Lib Dems & SNP shout and  loud and often as they can about NHS cuts by the Tories.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Pathetic! Any western healthcare system would buckle under the strain caused by this pandemic.


Italy is experiencing severe issues already - the Baggio military hospital is being prepared to provide care for patients because the civilian system is not able to cope.


P.S. there are now concerns over shortages of required drugs - many of the globally available generic drugs are manufactured in India and the Indian government has today announced restrictions on export, so they have them available to treat their own. This suggests that India is heading into the same territory as Italy, it is just slow to update its own test numbers or to carry out testing - Indian numbers are likely to rocket in the coming weeks (same for Pakistan).


 


New world order coming.
xioni2
04 March 2020 11:42:31

I'm sensing the UK govt / Whitty has gone a little off piste wrt mortality rates. They could of course be right but their guidance doesn't currently seem fully inline with the WHO.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


When this is over the CFR could well be less than 1%. I think what happened on the Diamond Princess may be relevant here:



  • ~20% of the passengers were infected

  • 0.8% died (old people with underlying conditions)

  • the cruise ship sample isn't representative of populations, but that probably skews the CFR higher (mostly old passengers, healthcare provided wasn't good etc.)


It will take a long time to know, but as Doc said the benefit of the hindsight will be interesting. My uneducated guess is that it will end up significantly less bad than many people think or fear.


 

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