Which is more extraordinary, Justin, talking up the crisis and precipitating panic buying and over-reaction or playing down the threat?

Some of us are trying to provide balance in here.

'A few thousand serious cases' implies a handful per hospital: is that going to 'overwhelm' the NHS?   It seems to me that your comment is equally extraordinary.  If we reached tens of thousands of serious cases then it would become an issue.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Which is more extraordinary, Justin, talking up the crisis and precipitating panic buying and over-reaction or playing down the threat?

Some of us are trying to provide balance in here.

'A few thousand serious cases' implies a handful per hospital: is that going to 'overwhelm' the NHS?   It seems to me that your comment is equally extraordinary.  If we reached tens of thousands of serious cases then it would become an issue.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Not everything is about your posts but I will respond as intelligently as I can.

In December, there was an average of 90% occupancy of all NHS acute care beds. That was about 94,000 out of about 101,000.

On the face of it, that left 7,000 beds free. But the picture is spotty: some trusts were and remain at close to 98% acute care occupancy. Regionally, there are only 1,000 spare beds in the NE and SW at the moment. Unless we are proposing to transport patients hundreds of miles or kick out other acute care patients, the NHS is really going to struggle.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Not everything is about your posts but I will respond as intelligently as I can.

In December, there was an average of 90% occupancy of all NHS acute care beds. That was about 94,000 out of about 101,000.

On the face of it, that left 7,000 beds free. But the picture is spotty: some trusts were and remain at close to 98% acute care occupancy. Regionally, there are only 1,000 spare beds in the NE and SW at the moment. Unless we are proposing to transport patients hundreds of miles or kick out other acute care patients, the NHS is really going to struggle.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Release date for the latest James Bond production 'No Time To Die' has been delayed to November following the coronavirus outbreak.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

From the Tele (their main story). Yes, it does appear to contradict itself somewhat!

Coronavirus has mutated into two strains, one which appears to be far more aggressive, scientists have said, in a discovery which could hinder attempts to develop a vaccine.

Researchers at Peking University's School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, discovered the virus has evolved into two major lineages - dubbed ‘L’ and ‘S’ types.

The older ‘S-type’ appears to be milder and less infectious, while the ‘L-type’ which emerged later, spreads quickly and currently accounts for around 70 per cent of cases.

Genetic analysis of a man in the US who tested positive on January 21, also showed it is possible to be infected with both types.

...

The Chinese scientists, who analysed the viral DNA from 103 infected people, said it appeared the less dangerous ‘S-type’ was now taking over, possibly because of aggressive public health lockdown measures in China, which had stopped the more virulent disease in its tracks.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thank you.

I didn’t say or imply that your comments were directed at me.

I’m assuming that the NHS would take steps to clear beds. People who are there because arrangements haven’t been made to discharge them such as elderly and others needing support are obvious areas where in this situation steps can be taken.

At the level of a handful of cases per hospital it ought to be manageable with adequate notice and planning - which is what is happening. But I agree that it puts pressure on a system already under strain.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Which is more extraordinary, Justin, talking up the crisis and precipitating panic buying and over-reaction or playing down the threat?

Some of us are trying to provide balance in here.

'A few thousand serious cases' implies a handful per hospital: is that going to 'overwhelm' the NHS?   It seems to me that your comment is equally extraordinary.  If we reached tens of thousands of serious cases then it would become an issue.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 i could go private. But it will cost more than £15k.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Not everything is about your posts but I will respond as intelligently as I can.

In December, there was an average of 90% occupancy of all NHS acute care beds. That was about 94,000 out of about 101,000.

On the face of it, that left 7,000 beds free. But the picture is spotty: some trusts were and remain at close to 98% acute care occupancy. Regionally, there are only 1,000 spare beds in the NE and SW at the moment. Unless we are proposing to transport patients hundreds of miles or kick out other acute care patients, the NHS is really going to struggle.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 I doubt Iran will exist in it's current form at the end of this.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Another prediction that won't age well.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Another prediction that won't age well.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 Prediction in the 'oh noes Solemani death will cause WW3' thread turned out to be validated.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Regarding the L and S types - this (I know, it's the Fail) makes a little more sense 

Originally Posted by: NickR 

I came close to dying in September but was saved by emergency surgery. I’m supposed to have more surgery in April to restore me to full health but I assume that this will be postponed until late in the year or even next if coronavirus takes hold. There will be many like me.

i could go private. But it will cost more than £15k.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Indeed - this was never about the headline death rate, but the hospitalisation rate. That is why containment and mitigation to delay and smooth the cases is so important at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

As for 'panic buying' there will be none from me.

I gradually accumulated everything I needed during January without any short term panic at all.

I will definitely not be queuing in a last minute panic.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

As for 'panic buying' there will be none from me.

I gradually accumulated everything I needed during January without any short term panic at all.

I will definitely not be queuing in a last minute panic.

Originally Posted by: Quantum