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xioni2
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:08:36 PM


 Taste?  undecided


Originally Posted by: howham 


For the perfume (but who knows!)


Chunky Pea
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:26:43 PM

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Arcus
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:34:04 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo7HB-slsm4

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Very apt, as they were the One Direction manufactured punk band of the time (cf Dead Kennedys at the Bay Music Awards - on the Album "Give Me Convenience Or Give Me Death". Very, very apt).


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Steve
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:39:06 PM


 


The japanese style toilets have this integrated and do it in a carefully planned way with no spilling or accidents. They can then dry the arsehole and even perfume it to your taste.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Its these sort of unexpected gems of information that make TWO such an interesting place...👍

Heavy Weather 2013
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:42:35 PM


 


Slight correction - "identified cases" - the 95k is probably only the tip of the iceberg, since testing is patchy in many places and as we have observed, for many people the effects are so mild they would probably never get around to being tested. I still work on the assumption of at least one to two million infected in Iran alone.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Yet the WHO have still not declared this as a Pandemic


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
doctormog
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:47:45 PM


 


Yet the WHO have still not declared this as a Pandemic


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


What difference will it make if or when they do?


The is an interesting discussion the New Scientist re. this issue: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/ 


Are people, governments or organisations actually waiting for the WHO to label it a pandemic before taking action?


xioni2
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:49:50 PM


 Yet the WHO have still not declared this as a Pandemic


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I think they will only declare it a pandemic if/when containment has failed globally and it's out of control. They see no tangible benefits in calling it a pandemic now (other than satisfying the media hunger for it), as the public is more than aware of it and most national governments treat it as a pandemic already.

Polar Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:06:21 PM

Dow finishing very strong tonight around +4.5% just over 27k mark Dow futures prediction at start +500 approx,  current approx gain +1100

Maunder Minimum
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:07:13 PM

Back to the debate about whether the official figures are to be believed and whether they are accurate. Given that I believe millions worldwide have been infected with the virus, this article regarding testing carried out in the USA is worth reading:


https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/


"The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It



Because the U.S. data on coronavirus infections are so deeply flawed, the quantification of the outbreak obscures more than it illuminates.


We know, irrefutably, one thing about the coronavirus in the United States: The number of cases reported in every chart and table is far too low.


The data are untrustworthy because the processes we used to get them were flawed. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s testing procedures missed the bulk of the cases. They focused exclusively on travelers, rather than testing more broadly, because that seemed like the best way to catch cases entering the country.





Just days ago, it was not clear that the virus had spread solely from domestic contact at all. But then cases began popping up with no known international connection. What public-health experts call “community spread” had arrived in the United States. The virus would not be stopped by tight borders, because it was already propagating domestically. Trevor Bedford’s lab at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, which studies viral evolution, concluded there is “firm evidence” that, at least in Washington State, the coronavirus had been spreading undetected for weeks. Now different projections estimate that 20 to 1,500 people have already been infected in the greater Seattle area. In California, too, the disease appears to be spreading, although the limited testing means that no one is quite sure how far.








In total, fewer than 500 people have been tested across the country (although the CDC has stopped reporting that number in its summary of the outbreak). As a result, the current “official” case count inside the United States stood at 43 as of this morning (excluding cruise-ship cases). This number is wrong, yet it’s still constantly printed and quoted. In other contexts, we’d call this what it is: a subtle form of misinformation.


...


The point is that every country’s numbers are the result of a specific set of testing and accounting regimes. Everyone is cooking the data, one way or another. And yet, even though these inconsistencies are public and plain, people continue to rely on charts showing different numbers, with no indication that they are not all produced with the same rigor or vigor. This is bad. It encourages dangerous behavior such as cutting back testing to bring a country’s numbers down or slow-walking testing to keep a country’s numbers low.


..."






New world order coming.
Bugglesgate
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:12:36 PM


Back to the debate about whether the official figures are to be believed and whether they are accurate. Given that I believe millions worldwide have been infected with the virus, this article regarding testing carried out in the USA is worth reading:


https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/


"The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It



Because the U.S. data on coronavirus infections are so deeply flawed, the quantification of the outbreak obscures more than it illuminates.


We know, irrefutably, one thing about the coronavirus in the United States: The number of cases reported in every chart and table is far too low.


The data are untrustworthy because the processes we used to get them were flawed. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s testing procedures missed the bulk of the cases. They focused exclusively on travelers, rather than testing more broadly, because that seemed like the best way to catch cases entering the country.





Just days ago, it was not clear that the virus had spread solely from domestic contact at all. But then cases began popping up with no known international connection. What public-health experts call “community spread” had arrived in the United States. The virus would not be stopped by tight borders, because it was already propagating domestically. Trevor Bedford’s lab at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, which studies viral evolution, concluded there is “firm evidence” that, at least in Washington State, the coronavirus had been spreading undetected for weeks. Now different projections estimate that 20 to 1,500 people have already been infected in the greater Seattle area. In California, too, the disease appears to be spreading, although the limited testing means that no one is quite sure how far.








In total, fewer than 500 people have been tested across the country (although the CDC has stopped reporting that number in its summary of the outbreak). As a result, the current “official” case count inside the United States stood at 43 as of this morning (excluding cruise-ship cases). This number is wrong, yet it’s still constantly printed and quoted. In other contexts, we’d call this what it is: a subtle form of misinformation.


...


The point is that every country’s numbers are the result of a specific set of testing and accounting regimes. Everyone is cooking the data, one way or another. And yet, even though these inconsistencies are public and plain, people continue to rely on charts showing different numbers, with no indication that they are not all produced with the same rigor or vigor. This is bad. It encourages dangerous behavior such as cutting back testing to bring a country’s numbers down or slow-walking testing to keep a country’s numbers low.


..."






Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


And you wonder why our lot are preparing us  for a major event ?


The US is a  very weak link in all this.  I wonder what the Dow will do when the true  situation becomes obvious "on the ground" ?


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Arcus
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:13:28 PM


 


What difference will it make if or when they do?


The is an interesting discussion the New Scientist re. this issue: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/ 


Are people, governments or organisations actually waiting for the WHO to label it a pandemic before taking action?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Excellent point Doc. Coronavirus is actually a very pertinent litmus test on the attitude and mindset of governments and their ability to motivate and enforce the correct measures on a national and regional level without waiting to be told to do so.


China has shown (although arguably negligent in the initial phases) to be an exemplar in control and delay. Say what you want about a command economy, it's the best role model in how to deal with this situation.


Western Governments have other concerns that prevent a command economy approach - hence those economies won't see that China slow down I suspect.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Bugglesgate
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:16:26 PM


 


Excellent point Doc. Coronavirus is actually a very pertinent litmus test on the attitude and mindset of governments and their ability to motivate and enforce the correct measures on a national and regional level without waiting to be told to do so.


China has shown (although arguably negligent in the initial phases) to be an exemplar in control and delay. Say what you want about a command economy, it's the best role model in how to deal with this situation.


Western Governments have other concerns that prevent a command economy approach - hence those economies won't see that China slow down I suspect.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yes, China is  at one extreme and  the US at the other.   Europeans are at some point  between the 2 extremes.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Heavy Weather 2013
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:22:21 PM
Flybe will collapse in the next few hours according to reports.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Joe Bloggs
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:24:41 PM

Flybe will collapse in the next few hours according to reports.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Very sad for everyone involved, especially the staff. 


What a mess. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Saint Snow
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:29:26 PM


 


Taste?  undecided


Originally Posted by: howham 


 



 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Heavy Weather 2013
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:29:38 PM


 


Very sad for everyone involved, especially the staff. 


What a mess. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Absolutely. Terrible for all those employees. 


I hadn’t realised that the loan from the government hadn’t yet been agreed. It seems that the virus has just accelerated everything.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:35:36 PM






The point is that every country’s numbers are the result of a specific set of testing and accounting regimes. Everyone is cooking the data, one way or another. And yet, even though these inconsistencies are public and plain, people continue to rely on charts showing different numbers, with no indication that they are not all produced with the same rigor or vigor. This is bad. It encourages dangerous behavior such as cutting back testing to bring a country’s numbers down or slow-walking testing to keep a country’s numbers low.


..."






Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


But surely if people have contracted Covid-19 but aren't being tested, it's because the symptoms are so mild they don't need medical attention. 


Therefore under-reporting is, in reality, a good thing. As it reinforces the opinion that for the vast majority of people, this is no more serious than a heavy cold.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:35:48 PM

Suggestions the UK will switch to CONTAIN tomorrow. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:37:03 PM


But surely if people have contracted Covid-19 but aren't being tested, it's because the symptoms are so mild they don't need medical attention. 


Therefore under-reporting is, in reality, a good thing. As it reinforces the opinion that for the vast majority of people, this is no more serious than a heavy cold.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


If Maunder is right that would seem to be the case. However, it is at complete odds with what the WHO said yesterday. Their investigation into China suggested there very few "invisible" cases of the coronavirus.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:39:37 PM

What I anticipate will annoy the bejesus out of me is when drama-queen people with only mild-to-moderate symptoms demand hospitalisation and clog resources that should be used for those with properly serious symptoms and genuine risk to life.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:41:19 PM


 


If Maunder is right that would seem to be the case. However, it is at complete odds with what the WHO said yesterday. Their investigation into China suggested there very few "invisible" cases of the coronavirus.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Yet reports in Italy suggest that there were a lot of asymptomatic infected, walking round infecting everyone else. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Polar Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:42:09 PM

World growth revised downwards China Q3 recovery expected  Gold 2012 price approx 1.64 per oz


look at those car sales China  -92%  massive air departures decline


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51706225


 Bank of England pleased with Gold volt


 


 


 


 

Maunder Minimum
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:43:10 PM


 


If Maunder is right that would seem to be the case. However, it is at complete odds with what the WHO said yesterday. Their investigation into China suggested there very few "invisible" cases of the coronavirus.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The WHO is relying on the same flawed statistics as everyone else. Problem is that young and healthy people can probably shake off the virus in most cases, but Italy demonstrates what happens when a country with a large elderly population gets infected.


The issue about millions of people walking around with mild symptoms, is not that their symptoms are mild, but that they are passing the virus on and a proportion of those infected will require hospitalisation.


P.S. difficult to do pure science when dealing with actual human populations. However, in a scientific environment, you would do random testing in one group to find the general level of penetration in the group, plus have a control group with no testing until people get sick.


 


 


New world order coming.
Bugglesgate
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:46:04 PM


Yet reports in Italy suggest that there were a lot of asymptomatic infected, walking round infecting everyone else. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Yes, you can't have it both ways. 


Either there  aren't a lot of people  asymptomatic, so the risk  of  spread is small or  there are loads of them and it's already  spread all over the place.   I suspect the latter and a reasonable proportion of the population will get it (whether they know it or not !)


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
speckledjim
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:55:37 PM


 


 


Yes, you can't have it both ways. 


Either there  aren't a lot of people  asymptomatic, so the risk  of  spread is small or  there are loads of them and it's already  spread all over the place.   I suspect the latter and a reasonable proportion of the population will get it (whether they know it or not !)


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


If it is the latter then the mortality rate will obviously be a lot lower, and that’s good news.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip

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