I am really not sure whether closing schools actually helps. Children appear to be able to see off the virus quite capably, plus the disruption to the rest of society caused by school closures is not worth it. Better to ban large gatherings as the French have done - music concerts, exhibitions, crowd games and the like, plus encourage those who can, to work from home.

My daughter in London never uses the Tube - she walks to work - but she is now avoiding the buses too.

P.S. - this is the real issue and always was:

"

Italian hospitals on the 'verge of collapse'

Taking a break from Prof Chris Whitty's comments this morning - here is the latest from Nick Squires in Italy:

In the north of Italy, where the outbreak is most severe, some hospitals are reportedly on the verge of collapse.

La Stampa newspaper.

'Hospitals are on the verge of collapse,' the daily reports, citing a union representing hospital staff."

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I disagree. You are displaying a typical inability to judge risk properly.

Until the last few days the number of cases outside the hot spot areas was exceedingly low. Here it was one case per million people.

You've got a 50 times greater risk of being in a car accident; have you stopped driving? No, you haven't.

How many cruise ships are at sea at any point in time and how many have had Covid-19 cases? I reckon you're probably safer on a cruise liner.

You're displaying exactly the kind of panicky overreaction that needs to be avoided.

 

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I am not panicking Dr Pangloss, since I would never, ever take a cruise in the first place. I just happen to think that those who are still enduring cruises in the present environment are off their trollies.

P.S. Cruise ships are chronic for the environment in any case, they pollute the seas, they emit tons of greenhouse gases and they ruin the places they call at.

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Hmm who to trust.  The politician or the scientist....?

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BREAKING

Iran is to close schools and universities until the end of the Iranian calendar year on 20 March because of coronavirus, Reuters news agency reports, quoting the country's health minister.

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You conveniently didn't bother to include my entire post, so you've completely avoided the key point.

Have you stopped driving? 50 times more likely to have a car accident. One in a million risk of picking up Covid-19.

 

As for cruise ships and the environment, that's a completely different issue. Contribute to the other thread if you wish.

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Where did you pick up that nugget of information? The chances of getting infected with Covid-19 as the epidemic winds up, are far higher than the chances of being involved in a car accident.

And you keep missing the key point - catching COVID-19 is not about mortality rates or how ill it makes you personally - it is the threat of it causing a collapse in the NHS which is the paramount point.

 

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Driving car - well established and known risk.

Covid-19 - rapidly evolving risk which changes on a daily basis.

= Not comparable.

 

The risks   with Corona Virus   are rapidly escalating (probably on an exponential law).  We also don't know what those risks are.  The balance of probability is that today they are very low.   How many days / weeks   will you be able to say that - dunno !

 

 

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In terms of dying yes, but that's not the point. Its about getting trapped and quarantined that would concern me most. And they wont feed you the normal food and free booze. It would be like prison conditions

 

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I would say based on what I have been hearing from doctors and medical experts who know their stuff that for any given person in the UK it's more likely than not that they will get the virus at some stage. But there are so many unknowns at this stage, and we don't know how it will react to warmer weather, if indeed we ever get any. Of course it's also likely that if they do get it, it will not make them seriously ill.

 

Still, the world news is doing it best to keep getting worse and worse each year as it has done for the past five. Already this year we've had the threat of World War 3 (what happened to that by the way?), bushfires, floods, a global pandemic and now on top of everything else Genesis have reformed.

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While I still think it is all media hype but I'll tell you what isn't helping the situation much; people spitting everywhere. People were still doing that when I popped into the town just now, including one guy who hacked up a huge globule right in front of me. I felt like lifting the nearest manhole cover off and throwing him into the drainage hole.

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Agree

Children maybe carriers of the virus but closing schools would do more damage to society than the virus itself. Yes, stop large gatherings like sporting events. Liverpool can lift their title in an empty stadium with no parade! 

Sorry Saint

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Kill me know

 

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Mortality rates are very important. It's not just the obvious fact that there is a huge difference between a rate of 0.4% and 4% or even 10%. High mortality rates mean much higher pressure on the health care systems. 

Is that one if their new singles? 😊

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Fortunately as things stand today we have no active cases that are serious/critical so no requirement for hospital beds. Let’s hope than an requirement is a slow, steady one.

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👍👍

 

No, you are the one missing the point.

Your point was about not going on a cruise.  I was pointing out that when people were making the decision to go away there were almost no cases in the UK and very very few away from the hotspots.

Your point about hospitalisation is completely irrelevant to the point you were making.

If you want to drift away from the point that we were discussing that's fine but don't pretend it invalidates my points because it doesn't.

Your exaggeration is worse than my alleged complacency (and I'm not being complacent, just trying to counter your overreaction).

 

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You're missing the point - yet again.

Maunder was claiming that it was stupid to take a cruise because of the risk.  My point was that when these people made the decision - a week, two weeks, possibly longer, to travel the risk was infinitesimally small. 

That is exactly the point you've made except you've gone at it the wrong way - it is rapidly evolving and 1-2-3 weeks ago the risk wasn't there.

 

Care to rethink?

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That is not the issue - the issue is that they can catch the virus and pass it on to others- parents, grandparents and so on.

It's not that difficulty to grasp, surely?

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Past experience with flu tells us that it is illness amongst the staff that is the critical factor - you quickly reach a point where it is pointless bringing kids in for an endless run of token "cover lessons", at the same time adding to the risk of spreading the virus between them. The trouble is this causes significant disruption to parents' and carers' routines and work commitments. There is no smart answer as no one wants the kids hanging about at home with little to do but moan and whinge.

R.

 

p.s.

Government moves to stage 2 of Virus Plan. You may wish to read.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51749352

Roger

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There were plenty of us weeks ago saying that cruises in the region should have been suspended straight away - now the issue is global. I am pretty sure those on the Diamond Princess now fervently wish they had never gone on that cruise. Problem is, that whenever Quantum, me or some others have been pointing out the likely spread of this thing from the outset, we were dismissed as "scaremongering", or "panicking" yet now we are where we are. If people like Quantum had been listened to from the outset (I mean those who advise governments), perhaps the global situation might be less serious now.

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I'll refrain from answering this one.

UK remains in the containment any change to delay phase will be announced publically which as yet it hasn't.