Unfortunatly its impossible to contain a virus and its so widespread now over the world that I still think the advise should be,here in the uk, keep calm and carry on as normal as taking drastic action especially this early as to suggest shutting schools etc will just fan the flames of panic and that will to much more harm than this virus!!  It is clear this virus is not a killer except its particularly dangerous for the elderly 80+ so there should be plans being drawn up on how to cope if you get it and how the symptoms develop and what they are and how to cope at home!! The bottom line is no matter what we do nature will now take its course and I believe we should be taking sensible precautions and extra care whilst allowing life to continue as normal. Btw for 80% of the workforce it is impossible to do their job from home,so telling people to work from home will 100% collapse the economy!!

Indeed. It also seems possible the virus has been circulating for weeks. The death total could be significantly higher than what is being reported due to lack of testing. We could be importing corona from the US at the moment. 

I was reading something earlier about how many people are estimated to die each year because of air pollution - it's several million and it gives a sense of proportion

I just wonder if air pollution in industrialised China might make their lungs more susceptible to a virus like CV19. If the virus does get everywhere (which still seems is likely) perhaps those living in the most air polluted parts will (there will of course be other variables like level of healthcare, numbers of older or younger people) suffer disproportionately.

On that basis, infection peaks in July.

I think much of the evidence points that way.  

On the other hand, if it's been circulating unseen for weeks then the symptoms must have been indistinguishable from a normal cold or mild flu, which is actually very good news - for most people.  But clearly not at all good for older people and those with pre-existing conditions, as it will be harder to avoid.

The government adviser said, IIRC, three months to the peak and then three months as it ebbs away. That would put us in mid-June. But obviously the strategy is to try to flatten the peak, which might delay it a little.

Professor Pennington said there was a chance of a vaccine by the end of the year. Clearly of no help in the current wave.

They also smoke a lot in China, which probably doesn't help. However, we are now seeing similar death rates in northern Italy.

Actually your post reminded me that northern Italy has the highest air pollution in Europe by far, so who knows it could well be another contributing factor to their high number of deaths.

The Italian govt just decided to quarantine all of Lombardy and 11 other areas. No in or out except for important reasons , all gyms, swimming pools, museums, ski resorts etc. will be closed.

Can we trust everyone to tell the truth?

How about if everyone selects a date on which they will have the infection? Once they pass their date they are out of the running.

Then if they don't post on or after that date, we'll know they've had it, in one sense or another. Whoops. Sorry.

This was discussed this morning on R4. It was said that many/most of the people who caught it in Wuhan were workers/manual labourers and that smoking is indeed widespread. Damaged lungs when fighting a virus that attacks the lungs isn't a good place to be.

Come on, Roger, this is an extremely grave matter.

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Another airline reported as being in difficulty this evening because of all this - Norwegian.

"Restaurants and bars will stay open but on condition that they will enforce a distance of at least 1m between all customers."

At least that's what the emergency law says. 

What are the odds of Euro2020 and the Olympics going ahead?

Pretty small I would wager.

Yes Peter and we must remember those children and adults with CF and congenital lung problems and waiting for Lung transplants at no fault of themselves.

[.quote=Gandalf The White;1186052]

This was discussed this morning on R4. It was said that many/most of the people who caught it in Wuhan were workers/manual labourers and that smoking is indeed widespread. Damaged lungs when fighting a virus that attacks the lungs isn't a good place to be.