Your an odd one Gandalf.  You condemn flying because of co2,  yet you defend maritime cruise ships with the sort of benefit argument which could equally well apply to flying on holiday.  In fact many cruise holidays include a flying element.

Puzzles me too. Cruises should have been one of the frivolous things to have been stopped from the outset.

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When you look at the situation in Italy and the impact on the health service there, it's very difficult not to conclude that we are in for some very difficult times.

The spread seems relatively slow in the UK.

I’m hoping for a miracle and hope it stays that way.

I still don’t fully understand why the situation is so bad in Italy compared to other places. 

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Possibly, it's not certain that the situation here will become like Italy. Most Asian countries and even China outside Hubei have kept it under control.

This is my non expert speculation:

• they never found patient zero and the virus was probably circulating undetected for weeks


• perhaps they should have taken these draconian measures earlier (similar delay to Hubei)


• factors like an aged demographic, very high population density, air pollution and highly concentrated areas of infections could be contributing to the high number of deaths and puts their health system under very high pressure

It'd be interesting to see a breakdown of deaths similar to the Chinese one.

The Chinese, remember, saw 0.2% deaths for the under-40s, 0.4% from 40-49, then it really ramped up from the 50s onwards - doubtless due to the increase in chronic illnesses in those older people.

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I'm glad that I'm am not the only one who spots these ongoing contradictions. 

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I hope so but I think Italy, in terms of social structure, response etc resembles us more than Asian countries. Is Italy bad or is it just a few weeks in front?

I wonder if seasonal temps has / will have an effect on the spread? Maybe warmer temperatures later this spring and into summer will help quell the virus to some extent? I don't know but I hope so. 

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You could be right.

The virus doesn’t seem to be taking hold that effectively in the tropics - think Indonesia, Thailand, etc.

 

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Probably not but I just hope. 

The 'old Corona', just from a coincidental point of view, sprung up in what is typically the coldest and most miserable time of year across N. Hem, and  at a time when immune systems are at their weakest. For example, common colds, flu cases etc tend to reach their peak between Dec and about now, which naturally would give the Corona virus more amplification in those affected. 

Probably talking nonsense here and just thinking out loud. 

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Our Italian relations say it's more widely spread than is being reported, schools are closed, teaching taking place on-line. They are keeping their young children at home.

R.

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As of 9am on 8 March 2020, 23,513 people have been tested in the UK, of which 23,240 were confirmed negative and 273 were confirmed as positive

67 more people infected with coronavirus in the UK - 63% increase on yesterday.

Boris Johnson to chair COBR tomorrow

A move from containment to delay must be getting very close now.

Some of us have spent a leisurely Sunday at home. Others, meanwhile, have been panicky Petes! These are courtesy of the Tele.

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Meanwhile, from the Guardian, it seems we're now spreading the virus elsewhere. How long before we get added to the "don't allow anyone from there" lists abroad?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70

 

"Tens of tourists who flew from London to Hanoi last week are being quarantined across Vietnam over fears they may have been exposed to the coronavirus, report the Guardian’s Rebecca Ratcliffe and Lam Le in Hanoi

A British traveller, who is among those being isolated, said that he and his luggage had been sprayed with disinfectant and quarantined in a hotel room. He said was not sure how long he would be required to stay in the room, but that he is awaiting a test.

It was hoped that Vietnam, which hadn’t reported any new cases for several weeks, had managed to contain the virus, but several cases linked to a flight from London have emerged over recent days."

...

One of five new cases of coronavirus in Peru includes a patient who had recently travelled to London, Peruvian health authorities have said.

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I'm starting to panic, just realised that Modena is one of the provinces under lockdown in Italy. Off to Tesco to stock up on balsamic vinegar.

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The Government are holding a crisis meeting tomorrow.

"During the meeting they will consider closing schools, banning large sporting events and introducing new quarantine rules."

Supplies of cat litter getting low in Tesco in Evesham

However, whilst they are out of toilet paper they had a plentiful supply of tissues ....  

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Yes, we have a second corona virus case from a person who caught a flight from London to here in Perth, Western Australia. Like has been mentioned I think it's beginning to take hold with you guys over there in the UK. Here in Australia I have a feeling we are not going to be far behind you.

The flu and its dangers are well known about, but most don't have a clue about the cold.

The average Joe probably wouldn't know that there are over 200 viruses that cause the the common cold, and the average adult gets 2-3 a year!!

Rhinovirus make up the largest group of the common cold viruses, but around a fifth are also Corona viruses.

People die from complications from common cold viruses every year. Millions are either hospitalised or in need of it..

W.H.O. estimates around 2 million children die a year from acute respiratory tract illnesses - Rhinoviruses making up a significant portion of the infections.

Rhinoviruses, Coronaviruses, andenoviruses all cause deaths each year, and are the 3 most common viruses responsible for the common cold - and we all get them.

The point I'm trying to get to here is are the draconian measures and media caused pandemonium really that helpful? This virus is out there now and spreading freely, and the likelihood hood is far more are infected then have been recorded. Probably with symptoms indifferent to a mild cold so have never even suspected they're infected with this 'deadly' virus that's causing chaos around the globe.

Media fear mongering = scared public = knee jerk reactions from governments.

Yet from very early on scientists have said that for most this will mild.

 

Indeed - if it was  difficult to catch we wouldn't have the   problems we have !

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Cases by region in England. All regions have seen an increase with the exception of the North East and Yorkshire.

• East of England | 23 (+7)


• London | 51 (+13)


• Midlands | 25 (+8)


• North East and Yorkshire | 18 No change


• North West | 31 (+5)


• South East | 41 (+11)


• South West | 35  (+10)

To be determined | 22 (+8)

I've got the day off work tomorrow as I'm getting my car MOT'd. My colleagues in the school, though, will be finishing prepping new laptops for staff, as the idea is that 20 old ones will be given to the most disadvantaged Year 11s, so they can work from home. (No idea how they'll get online if they're that badly off, though - apprently they don't have mobiles or computers in their homes.)

Meanwhile when I'm back the task of sync'ing our school database (SIMS, it's called), to Google's services will be completed - meaning, in theory at least, lessons can go on via the Internet from the 10th should the need arise. As mentioned before, the senior leadership team in my school (and indeed academy trust) are convinced they'll be asked to close within 2-4 weeks.

Surprised there's any demand for that stuff - round here the cats seem to use my garden as their litter tray (something like 8 turds lurking in the lawn yesterday when I gave it its first mow of the season - having last done it in late January. )

I suspect this will end in one of two ways:

• Containment, delay and the summer will mean this fizzles out during the summer/autumn, perhaps re-appearing as autumn wears on.


• Containment, delay etc fails and the bug spreads around the UK.

If it's the latter, most will of course end up fine (aside from being a bit rough for a couple of weeks), but there would be a fair number of elderly / sick people who die, and not necessarily from catching the virus - think cancelled/delayed operations etc.

 

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