Nowhere have i defended cruise ships. Wrong thread: my point was clearly about how sensible it was to take a cruise and the need to look at the risk at the point people boarded and not a week or two later in a fast-evolving situation.

Which I think confirms that in fact the odd one is you; but no matter.

You keep saying that but have never answered my questions.

I suppose it’s an improvement on criticising the WHO.

And, as discussed, the very high proportion of smokers.  

Lung damage + a virus that attacks the lungs = bad news

That may be good news in the narrow sense that it means their death rate is being artificially boosted by lack of reporting of the mild cases.

We were  going to have a family outing and meal  out next Sunday  as a joint early mothers days / birthday celebration.  After a  discussion we have decided to cancel / postpone this.  I'm not personally  very  concerned about catching this (mid 50s, no underlying health issues) (although of course I'd rather not !!!)  but I am concerned  for other members of the party which  include 3 octogenarians with underlying heath issue and one asthmatic 50 something.

I strongly suspect there are a lot more people circulating that are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms they don't think worth  reporting.

Model is apparantely doing quite well.

My prediction was only 1 out.

I'm a bit surprised local citizens did not express an opinion.

At least you now know what is meant by a "wide boy".

R

So busy stocking up on bog roll that they forgot the food (going by that guy's trolley contents). Sorta defeats the purpose! 

The difference here is the severity of the illness and high mortality crates amongst vulnerable groups; as I understand it they’re much worse than influenza.

Plus, it seems rather easier to be transmitted than influenza.

Possibly, but if you put the spotlight on flu in  the same way we have been doing  with this in an "active" year, it would also look pretty grim. Both deaths in the UK so far  most likley could  have been "seen off" by a dose of the flu given their underlying conditions.  My cousin works at the Royal Berks and attests  that the death there was  of a very ill patient before the virus struck.

I don't know about  how easy it is to catch - a proportion of people that contract regular flu remain asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms that go below the RADAR.

I think the problem here IS the unknown and we won't have a definitive measure of the  actual and comparative risks for a while yet.

.

Looks like they may have been infected on the plane. 

It is deadly. No need for scare quotes.

You also miss the entire reason why this is so dangerous, a reason that has been explained and linked to in here many times, so there really is no excuse: the hospitalisation rate is high (around 20%). You only need to look at Wuhan and now Italy to understand the impact this will have on health systems with so many being infected. The numbers are clear, the dangers are evident. Your post is just, to put it kindly, poorly thought-through.

As viruses don't tend to spread through the air-con system on planes, that leaves either coughing, spluttering etc, or touching an infected surface... and there are plenty of potential candidates on a plane!

(I always use the hot towel they give you to wipe down the armrests, table and remote control, but most wouldn't bother. As for the toilets, you'd hope people would wash their hands using the soap provided before leaving - but of course that won't be the case for everyone.)

It's actually around 5%, apparently. From the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70

The number of coronavirus cases in the UK is going to double every few days, according to a British health expert who was reacting to the news earlier that a total of 273 people have now tested positive.

Prof Tom Solomon, Walton Centre NHS foundation trust, and Institute of Infection & Global Health, University of Liverpool, said 67 new cases in the UK was not that big an increase nor unexpected given it was likely the number of cases would double every few days.

He added:

As the numbers continue to grow we are moving from a phase of containment, where we hoped we could stop the outbreak completely, to one of delay. This means all our efforts are aimed at slowing the outbreak down.

Ultimately perhaps 50 to 80% of the population may get infected with this virus. Currently about 5% of patients are needing hospitalisation. If all these people become infected in a short time window, eg a few weeks, then we will have a very large number who need to go to hospital all at the same time. And the health services will really struggle.

However, If we can spread the outbreak over many months, the health services will be able to cope better with the same number of patients, because not everyone will need to care at the same time.

The BBC have meanwhile carried this interview with a Briton who contracted coronavirus after travelling to northern Italy recently.

The man said that he had a dry cough over the weekend and then suddenly had a headache and a fever, as well as “strange chills” which seemed to reverberate around the body.

It certainly doesn't seem to have taken hold in a hot country yet. But both Indonesia and Thailand have certainly under tested so we can't really be sure just yet. Saudi Arabia has just quarinetined the city of Qatif and its certainly very warm there. But I'm hopeful  warm weather will help slow it down at least.

I think you have actually missed the point and that is so to is the common cold is also deadly. Also tens of thousands of people are hospitalised yearly from complications of the common cold viruses.. never mind the flu. 

My hunch is that surface transmission is the most probable way.  Handrails, toilet doors , you name it !

That, of course,  goes for any Public Transport system.  The hand washing and not touching the eyes "thing" really is a big deal IMHO !

I've always washed my hands pretty religiously but my particular weakness is touching my face and rubbing my eyes.  Unfortunately  it's very difficult to break that sort of personal  reflex !

Lol sounds just like the other week.. sudden dry cough, mild headache, slight chills, and felt a little meh. I blamed that on change in weather, work and probs start of a cold - that didn't materialise.

It does seem from looking at the model runs at the moment that their is a reasonable chance of an improvement in the UK's weather in the second half of March. If it does come to pass, then hopefully it'll do something to at least slow down the infection rate in this country.

Though the current situation is bad enough, one saving grace of any kind might be that we are now moving away from winter (such as it was!) and towards summer. If this had all been happening during the autumn, I dread to think what things might have been like during winter itself.

Right !   Time to jet off to somewhere hot for a few months ...... except I'll  probably contract the ruddy thing in the airport or plane 

A certain type of cat litter (white granules, disinfected, non clumping) have been hard/impossible to obtain for many weeks, from different retailers.  I don't think this is Corvid related. If I recall correctly it may even pre date it.  Or maybe some highly placed cat owner has known something for some time, and has been stockpiling. I have been seeking cat litter for some time, and what I have learned is good practice for the shortages to come.  Also as I have a cat litter tray to clear, I normally buy hand steriliser in bulk from Amazon, so I have a reasonable stock of that already.

I have tried to explain to the cat that at times of national crisis like this he should play his part and go and fertilise the neighbours flower beds. He is though, a confirmed house cat, who will only go out for a few minutes when it is warm and sunny, with no wind. Even then he insists on using the indoor facilities.  If you refuse to let him in, he sits outside the french windows looking pathetic with knees crossed.  He would rather do himself an injury, than get muddy paws.

Lombardy data

• 4189 cases (+769)


• 221 in hospital (+556) 


• 399 in intensive care (+40)


• 257 deaths (+113)


• 550 recovered (+26)

Full Italy update due shortly.

I have read sources which suggest that the air on a plane is near enough sterile, as a result of the air con and air filtration system. As you say in order to be infected, you either have to be sat in very close proximity to an infected person, or come into contact with things they've touched. As people have their own tray tables, seats and meals etc, the only real way I see to spread the illness is through the lavatory (door handles, toilet seats).

For all intents and purposes, from what I see, you're pretty safe on a plane.

I'd agree that you're pretty safe in the air - after all, you'll note that whole planeloads of people aren't coming down with the virus, which suggests that it's not airborne via the ventilation.

Of course, if you want to fly and minimise the risk, you should be in business or preferably first - fewer people using the facilities and much more space between you all. Easier said than done, though, unless you're rich (or have a few hundred thousand Avios!)

(The airport itself is much riskier in terms of infection, I'd wager: I'm sure everyone who's been in one will have seen someone hacking, spluttering or sneezing plumes of germ-laden moisture into the air!)