New cases have fallen in Italy by 820 compared to the same update yesterday. Deaths have increased by 71.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I mentioned this earlier in the thread in answer to Gandalf about the very sensible and measured restricting of travel - he is the one who recently returned from Italy - at the very least, especially given his occupation, he should have self isolated on return from his ski trip to Lombardy!

Interesting article here on why low cost airlines are reluctant to cancel flights unless instructed so to do:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2020/03/08/this-is-why-flights-are-still-operating-from-milans-airports/

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Indeed.

'Death rate' at 6.22% today (up from 5.05% yesterday).

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

The focus is very much on the number of cases per country. Surely the cases per million head of population is more important?

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

 As this was circulating long before the first case was diagnosed presumably there are a lot of cases not being reported and not needing medical intevvention so I think care is needed over interpreting the mortality rate.  If those is hospital are in the top 10-20% and most of the 80-90% are being missed then the true rate will be towards 1% overall.

Still not great but around one in a hundred is a hell of a lot less scary than one in six.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Lombardy region hasn't been included thus far apparently.

Originally Posted by: John p 

Lombardy region hasn't been included thus far apparently.

Originally Posted by: John p 

Italy data looks to be complete Lombardy is +322 on yesterday

Quote

In Italy, since the beginning of the Coronavirus epidemic, 10,149 people have contracted the Sars-CoV-2 virus, 529 more than on Monday. Of these, 631 died (+ 168) and 1,004 were healed. Currently there are 8,514 positive subjects (the bill rises to 10,149 - as mentioned above - if there are also dead and healed in the calculation): 619 more than yesterday.

There are 5,038 hospitalized patients with symptoms; 877 are in intensive care, while 2,599 are in fiduciary home isolation.

The data Region by Region

Here is the number of people infected (total) in the individual regions:

• Lombardy 5791 (+322)


• Emilia-Romagna 1533 (+206)


• Veneto 856 (+74)


• Piedmont 453


• Marche 394 (+51)


• Liguria 141 (+31)


• Campania 127 (+ 19)


• Tuscany 264 (+42)


• Sicily 62 (+1)


• Lazio 116 (+15)


• Friuli-Venezia Giulia 116 (+36)


• Abruzzo 38 (+13)


• Puglia 59 (+10)


• Umbria 37 (+2)


• Bolzano 38 (-)


• Calabria 13 (+2)


• Sardinia 20 (+8)


• Valle D'Aosta 17 (+6)


• Trento 52 (+10)


• Molise 15 (-)


• Basilicata 7 (+1)

 

https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-italia-10149-casi-631-morti-bollettino-10-marzo-008ff264-62e3-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml?cmpid=tbd_6be163c8Io&refresh_ce-cp

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Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sorry, I meant - not all of the totals are in from Lombardy yet. Although who knows what to believe anymore!

Originally Posted by: John p 

Still very early days for Italy but maybe a sign that new cases are just beginning to slow down slightly.

820 is a fairly big drop compared to yesterday though many more new deaths will be occurring for a while yet sadly

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Where did you read this?

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

The Telegraph has some good graphs. Paywalled, but this one at least might leak through! (Click for full-size).

And this one is minus the legend, which shows growth of cases:

The graphs are:

Hubei, Italy, South Korea, Iran

France, Germany, Spain, Mainland China

USA, Japan, Switzerland, Netherlands

UK, Sweden, Belgium, Norway

Austria

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The focus is very much on the number of cases per country. Surely the cases per million head of population is more important?

For Europe, here are the top countries by cpm - Italy only at number 3:

1. San Marino 1,526
2. Iceland 189
3. Italy 168
4. Switzerland 57
5. Norway 56
6. Denmark 45
7. Spain 36
8. Sweden 35
9. Monaco 26
10. France 25
11. Belgium 23
12. Netherlands 22
13. Austria 20
14. Germany 16
15. Slovenia 15

19. UK 5.5

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

60 to 70% of Germany will be infected

BREAKING - "60 to 70 percent in Germany will become infected with #COVID19," said Chancellor Merkel (65) shortly after the start of the parliamentary group meeting. Then there was silence in the room, participants reported. pic.twitter.com/IwPe6tQ744

— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) March 10, 2020

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 It seems very early to be having such big drops.  We were led to believe this could go on most of the year.  Based on China, SK and now this apparent huge drop, could it all be over sooner than thought?

Originally Posted by: John p 

It seems very early to be having such big drops.  We were led to believe this could go on most of the year.  Based on China, SK and now this apparent huge drop, could it all be over sooner than thought?

Originally Posted by: John p 

60 to 70% of Germany will be infected

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I thought the expert view was a climb to a peak after about three months and then a steady decline, with measures aimed at flattening and delaying the peak?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White