Presumably alot of Icelandic visitors to the Italian ski slopes. 

The Iceland figure equates to around 60 cases. Apparently they're almost all from a party that went to northern Italy.

A further 500 in quarantine.

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/09/covid-19-in-iceland-58-confirmed-cases-500-in-quarantine-general-screening-to-begin/

I see, so for example Italy could've perhaps go from 1000 per day to maybe 500 per day over a more prolonged period?

Indeed it is.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/disclose-tv/

'Tin foil hat' territory and high on pseudo science.

Skiers seem to be one of the biggest culprits regarding the spread across Europa. 

UK Government visualisation tool:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Interesting and intriguing, Retron. Thank you. Roger

Very interesting, Ben. Thanks for posting that. I shall bookmark it.

Let's hope we remain of the fringes of all this!

Roger

Yes, looks like it.

I've just done the calculation for Veneto region where my friends live; there it is 175 cpm. They live on the edge of Padova / Padua province which has 207 cases, 221 cpm.

He runs a furniture company which has a factory. He explained to me that they are allowed to travel within their province but not outside it. He lives in a small town called Montagnana. He can drive to Padova which is about 30 miles away I think, but he can't go to the next town of Bevilacqua about 5 miles away because it's in Verona province. So it seems they have "border controls" on every province border. He has some employees who live across the border, so he had to complete forms giving them special permission to cross the border and come to work.

Can you imagine the police putting roadblocks on the Hampshire/Berkshire border?

I assume it depends on how effective the controls are at 'delaying the peak' and we won't know when the peak has been reached until a clear picture has emerged, i.e. a clear downward trend.

Thanks, Gavin. I was particularly interested in:

• Lazio 116 (+15)


• Abruzzo 38 (+13)


• Umbria 37 (+2)

The "shut down" happened very quickly - we had only been speaking to our relations a day or so earlier. They were already "self isolating".

Important lessons to be learned?

Roger

That's excellent, well found.

The UK is still not convincingly in the exponential growth phase. For there to be exponential growth the cumulative day on day increase must roughly be constant (or increasing). If it is declining then we have not yet reached exponential growth.

% growth rate for last five complete days (on cumulative cases)

UK: 35,42,26,33,17   (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)

Italy: 25,20,27,25,24 (Constant: Exponential growth likely)

Spain: 24,32,18,57,83 (Increasing: Exponential growth very likely)

France: 48,45,55,19,25 (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)

Germany: 45,53,28,24,34 (Volatile: Exponential growth possible)

Netherlands: 116,56,47,40,22,19 (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)

Sweeden: 81,68,11,34,36 (Volatile: Exponential growth possible)

One of the reasons cited for the UK's softly-softly approach currently is to mitigate the risk of the double peak scenario - if you isolate too much, too soon then you run the risk of a second wave down the line.

Worth remembering a lot of the projections are model output. And we know a lot about model output...

You will notice that Spain is even more convincing than Italy. And not only is Spain also convincingly exponential, it's also showing a higher R0 than Italy and the transmission is more widespread.

Spain is projected to be worse in terms of new cases in a week or two.

well said GTW...I admire your persistence too in this thread to continue to counsel against wild exaggeration and panic ...totally agree... I’ve been accused of being flippant..simply for refusing to indulge in hyperbole but at no point have I or you as far as I can recall have ever said this situation is not serious. It clearly is...but it is all about the timing of introducing further measures  that may be needed... and for now at least the Govt seems to be responding appropriately in accordance with the advice of the senior health experts...the moment the Govt seeks to divert from the expert advice for whatever reason, my view of the Govt’s response will change! 

Its crazy therefore to think that the Atletico Madrid match is not being played behind closed doors tomorrow 

Italy's figures for the last 5 days (including today and why wouldn’t you use the most up to date figures) are 20, 27, 25, 24, 11. It’s dropped for the last 3 days so hardly exponential. 

Having watched this video (and assuming it's running good data and its math sound) I'm rather more informed than I was. Nothing is going to stop this virus, only slow it, and we better hope the UK govt is right and its not festering like it did in Italy. Well, I think I knew that, it's just more real than it was.

But, get everywhere it will unless everyone is imprisoned? Perhaps I'm thinking the curve flattening in the UK needs to be more vigorous than I did. Do I think 'we're all going to die' no, but I do think the vast majority of people in the world will be exposed to cv? Yup.

America. Unless the reports and my understanding is very wrong (which is quite possible) it has to be going the same way as Italy, probably worse. No one is testing or wants to be tested. There's no national coordination, only a bombastic fool spouting off with no one to rail at.

After this the world and politics could look different.

It should be particularly as Madrid has close to half of all Spanish cases

Indeed. Now Italy is in lockdown, Spain becomes potentially an even bigger threat.

Also for those talking about containment through shutting borders e.c.t. I would add this. Border closure can be very effective if done early, it's arguably too late for us even now. But keep in mind that Iran was worse than Italy and that when the middle east shut it's borders to Iran there did seem to be some degree of sucess.

The problem is, had the UK shut it's borders completely to Italy earlier but the rest of Europe had continued as normal then it would have been completely ineffective. If there was one thing the EU could demonstrate it's utility, it would be for a Europe wide response to the crisis. This is one of those occasions when something like the EU could have been really helpful. But it's too late for that now.

By the way I'd recommend this website for looking at the severity of countries affected:

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/map

They seem to base their assesment on the latest data and are ahead of the forgein office in that regard.

However I would suggest that Spain should probably be in the red zone, whilst China can probably be downgraded to Yellow. SK can also probably be downgraded to Orange.

Because the 11 includes Today's potentially incomplete data.

That aside, it's roughly constant so exponential growth does seem likely. I've tried to calculate R0 for Italy before and it's been difficult because the exponential growth has not always been convincing. However I do think we can now say we are in the exponential growth phase in Italy.