Jet stream still strong direct and across the UK tis coming week esp early in week; breaking up, weakening and moving off to Iceland next week.

In line with this GFS has westerlies this week wit a final 980mb storm centred Scotland Sun 15th. Thereafter ridge to Scandi develops, eventually becoming HP centred over Baltic 1050mb Fri 20th with weak easterlies over southern UK . 

ECM has westerlies less pronounced by Fri 13th, even a hint of a brief northerly, and has the LP on the 15th 990 mb further south, over the Channel. Then it develops the Scandi HP and associated easterlies more quickly ie by Tue 17th while GFS is still toying with a ridge.

Ens runs somewhat different to yesterday, cold 9th, mild 11th, then for the S a long period of mean 1-2C below seasonal norm (the Op run is notably cold  on the 20th, nearly 10C below) and very dry. In the N, similar but closer to norm and even a little above by end of run, and a bit more rain esp in the NW. Snow row figures consistently high only for Inverness, though a few passing teens elsewhere.

Oh dear!! Not much sign of anything springlike or drier - just less wet really and cool!? Also from the exception of Monday -Wednesday this week- Most of ENS are at or below 0c @ 850hpa 

I'll take snow any time of year. Sod's law, of course, would suggest that no snow will be forthcoming, at least down here, as it's extremely rare to have snow in late March onwards! (Further inland it's different, of course, but by the coast as I am... fugeddaboutit, so to speak.)

I knew this would happen!!

Happened last winter when we had an exceptionally warm February and only for the weather to deteriorate as we headed into Spring and I remember April and May was blocked and cool as well as wet. - But even last year we didn't have this much rain and the sad thing is that the PV is still so strong with record breaking zonal winds at 10hpa!!? 

Westerlies for this week with a final sting in the tail- GFS 985mb Shetland Sun 15th and nasty northerly gales on the day after, Ridge of HP then builds and becomes a centre over Scotland 1045mb on Sat 21st, large and well established through to Wed 25th with easterlies for the Channel coasts.

ECM as yesterday has Sunday's LP further south, over S Ireland, and although there;s a ridge on Tue 24th it proves to be a 'toppler' and westerlies are back on Wed with only a weak hint that it could re-establish from the Atlantic.

GEFS ensembles agree on a burst of mild air Wed 11th, then cold from 13th, slightly less cold on Sun 15th, a lot of divergence after that but mostly recovering to normal by 25th (earlier in the N). A bit of rain in the west but mostly dry everywhere else.

The Op 06z doesn't have much support and even then doesn't look overly mild either with only a few ENS going about +5c @ 850hpa but many ENS going below -5c@ 850hpa and several going as low as -10c @ 850hpa and even below??

After a mild blip, the ENS are bumping along under the LTA.

With minimal rain, hopefully some frosty nights to come to knock the CET down.

Today's GFS 06z is the first "if only it were August" run I can remember for a while. Perfect summer synoptics:

• This week up to Sunday low to mid 20s in South, fairly cloudy but dry. Some light rain in the North and West


• Next week settling down across the country, mid 20s widely by Wed, up to 30C+ by later in week


• Then a long, stable heatwave with 30C+ recorded somewhere in UK every day until end of run the following Wed, and the prospect of more heat to come. Quite possibly a 40C in France

I do like the look of the 12z GFS with a virtually rain and wind-free second half of March. That's good as we need it after what has been the longest Autumn,  even if we are unlikely to experience early Spring warmth and days of unbroken sun just yet. 

I noticed that as well, and it gets a from me too.

Yes, after a crap UK winter a spell of more pleasant weather would be welcome by most and most importantly a lot dryer to.

A sight for sore eyes.

Several days without rain would be nice. A low humidity continental feed with bags of sunshine would be a real bonus....let's not too greedy just yet though.

GFS continues yesterday's theme with westerlies this week and final LP on Sunday but with its associated trough further south than forecast earlier. Then ridge to Scandi and with HP developing further east than previously forecast (ca 1045 mb over Baltic through to Thu 26th and E-ly or SE-ly winds over UK. 

ECM closer to GFS than yesterday but still reluctant to develop HP as strongly wit centre further south and 1035mb over UK on Fri 20th

Ensembles agree to Mon 16th (a dip from present mild then recovering to LTA) after which much divergence. While mean is close to LTA, around 22nd the extremes are either 10C above or 10C below - take your pick from the 'postage stamps! Not much rain and what there is mainly in N or W. 

Looks like yesterday - westerlies for the rest of this week with troughs in the stream for Fri & Sun. HP then builds, a bit more slowly than forecast yesterday but 1035mb over UK by Fri 20th and moving off to Baltic 1045mb by Mon 23rd and stronger SE-ly winds than previously. By Fri 27th HP has retrogressed to Iceland and with an LP approaching from south, easterly gales in Channel.

ECM positions the HP differently with ridge to Azores rather than Scandi on Fri 20th but much the same as GFS until then

Ensembles temp profiles rather changed from yesterday; mild pulses on 15th and Wed 18th and better agreement on a mild spell from Mon 23rd though Op and Control take a dip towards the end on Fri 27th. Very dry for the S. In the N England & Scotland. mild spells less pronounced and a bit more rain

Thanks for your continued daily summaries DEW. In this rather dull "in between" period of the year they provide a good succinct overview of what the models are showing 👍

1mb strat is on fire mid range with temps as high as -10 near the pole at 10mb yet surprisingly very little geopotential height forcing at this altitude apart from a displaced vortex towards Canada which I find a little strange because the synoptics that the gfs runs have been throwing out are undoubtedly a response to this warming and forcing. 

Could we see a memorable wintry spell of weather during the last third of the month similar perhaps to late March 2013 or late March 1952 perhaps.

yes, I remember theire being strong wintry periods in late March in the 70s, with one delivering 3ft drifts on the South Downs. 

Looks like something is really brewing here....what a shame it is not January!!!

I am longing for Spring now, but I think winter might well be about to start....ironically. GFS average in FI is showing a Scandinavia high and very cool temps. That is unusual. Most putabations are showing wintry weather by the 25th to 27th.

I have only one comment. Bloody typical!

In the thread for giving our predictions for this year and for this decade, I mentioned that the spring would start off on an Atlantic-driven note since that is how the winter was, and since any pattern change will probably require a gradual transition from that.

However, with the stratospheric temperatures above the NP being so cold and driving such a powerful PV as a result, I could see that this could be enough for any natural warming from the Sun as we go further into the spring to have such a big impact on the stratosphere that the effects on the troposphere become similar to what we would be looking for from a SSW event during the weather with northern blocking resulting from that.

Because of that, I then predicted that the latter part of this spring in particular, could become a lot more easterly dominated as a result with more in the way of northern blocking. In the transition period between those two states, I also predicted that we would see the Azores High increasingly building over the country as the PV weakens, to bring a spell of drier and more settled weather before this high pressure then drifts north to become our northern blocking.

I know that what I have mentioned so far is off topic for this thread up until now, but the reason why I have mentioned this here is due to the fact that northern blocking has started to appear in the model output. Now, I know that this is only in the unreliable time frame and for now, is only really there as an outlier within the GFS model output.

Because of that, I am perfectly aware that we shouldn't really take that very seriously as a result. However, I am wondering whether or not, the appearance of northern blocking in the unreliable time frame of the GFS in particular is perhaps, the very first signs that my above predictions for this spring are starting to be shown to be right.

Now, I did mention that it would probably be in the latter part of the spring when we saw that northern blocking and we are only at the start of the spring just now. Because of that, I wouldn't have expected too much northern blocking to appear in the model output right now so the fact that this is only there as a GFS outlier fits in with my predictions quite nicely.

If I am right in what I am saying though, I would expect northern blocking to feature a lot more within the model output as time goes on. Furthermore, the models are agreeing a lot more that we are very soon, about to leave the more unsettled weather behind which we are still experiencing and go into a period which is more high pressure dominated. Even that fits in nicely with my predictions as well because I did also predict that we would go through a period of high pressure dominated weather as we eventually transition more towards northern blocking.

This means that it is is entirely possible that the model output which is just going for high pressure to be in charge, is possibly seeing that as a means of some sort of transition towards northern blocking but without extending far enough out at this stage for that northern blocking to come into that actual output.

This means that we could be in for a very interesting time indeed in that regard. Of course, we could have done with seeing that northern blocking during the winter so that it could have brought us a lot of cold and snowy weather, and the fact that we had such a horrible winter in that regard makes that all the more frustrating. However, I did also predict that this would happen too late to bring any real cold weather and that there would be a lot of frustrated people on this forum as a result as I am already starting to see, going by some recent comments on this thread.