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Whether Idle
16 March 2020 23:00:33


 


Seriously? How many more f4cking times does it need to be said before it penetrates your 4” skull? 


It is not about you catching it. It is about you passing it on.


Jesus.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Youre wasting your time.  He is wired "differently" up there.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
16 March 2020 23:01:13


Is anyone else struggling to focus on their day jobs now? Working on my IT project just seems so trivial right now, as though it will all be so irrelevant in a few months.


 I also have this overwhelming feeling of doom, the not knowing what’s around the corner (I’m still unable to get an answer as to whether I am in the high risk group (43yo, generally healthy but mild/very well controlled asthma). My wife is a teacher so it won’t be long until she catches it and passes it to me!


I do think I’ll need to limit my social media time soon for my own sanity.


Originally Posted by: John p 


I think many people will (understandably) be feeling exactly the same John. It is all very surreal all the more because it is essentially a global issue.


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
16 March 2020 23:03:31


 


Which implies it was never feasible in the first place no matter how early in the piece. They'd have been better off selling the brief up front to innovation companies who may have devised a way to make these things in a more straightforward/quick way.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


 


I wonder how coincidental it is that two of the three companies mentioned the most in terms of switching to manufacturing ventilators are big supporters (and funders) of the Brexit campaign & Tory Party - namely JCB and Dyson?


#corruptscumbags


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
JHutch
16 March 2020 23:03:33

Maybe you could wear gloves, take some cans to the pub and pay the bar a few pounds for every can you glug down ?  Maybe pay them 50p for every multipack bag of crisps you eat too?

Gandalf The White
16 March 2020 23:03:39


 


Look at it this way - we self isolate, we get food delivered including milk (we have milk bottles delivered daily) - you could still catch the virus if the delivery man has it, the milk bottle is contaminated and you touch your face unthinkingly after you have picked it up. It is impossible to be 100% safe from catching it.


If we had closed borders and monitored all those arriving here some weeks ago, the chance is that we could have avoided the worst - we are an island nation after all.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


How do you detect people who are asymptomatic? Answer: you can't. That is one of the problems.


That and the fact that you can infect people before you display symptoms.


Plus it's several times more virulent than influenza.


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
16 March 2020 23:06:40


 How do you detect people who are asymptomatic? Answer: you can't. That is one of the problems.


That and the fact that you can infect people before you display symptoms.


Plus it's several times more virulent than influenza.


 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Remember that Chinese (modelling) study which estimates that ~80% of the true cases in China were not diagnosed and that the true CFR is 0.4%-0.7%.


Just one study of course.

Gavin D
16 March 2020 23:07:10
Susanna Reid is self-isolating for 2 weeks

I am currently well but due to the new advice today I will be self-isolating for two weeks due to symptoms in my household. Stay well everyone .

https://twitter.com/susannareid100/status/1239670603604537345?s=19 
Gandalf The White
16 March 2020 23:08:06
France has announced a huge package of support.

Macron said no business will go bankrupt because of the virus.

We need to do something similar - and I think we will.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


westv
16 March 2020 23:08:14
Personally I have no worries as I am in good health and so, almost, is my wife. My pension pot has gone down but I knew it would and I know it will do again at some point in my life. I have a proportion of it in cash as I had a feeling something like this might happen. I'm over 55 so can start taking it whenever I want.
However, I do have sympathy for those more vulnerable either due to health or due to finances or due to both.
At least it will be mild!
xioni2
16 March 2020 23:09:23

France has announced a huge package of support.

Macron said no business will go bankrupt because of the virus.

We need to do something similar - and I think we will.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I think Italy has also announced a 25 billion package.

Gandalf The White
16 March 2020 23:10:32


 


Remember that Chinese (modelling) study which estimates that ~80% of the true cases in China were not diagnosed and that the true CFR is 0.4%-0.7%.


Just one study of course.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Didn't the testing regime in SK also discover that a lot of younger people tested positive but showed no symptoms?  


The CMO made a similar claim last week and I think it's the only realistic explanation for the rapid growth in cases here and across much of mainland Europe.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
16 March 2020 23:14:55

Personally I have no worries as I am in good health and so, almost, is my wife. My pension pot has gone down but I knew it would and I know it will do again at some point in my life. I have a proportion of it in cash as I had a feeling something like this might happen. I'm over 55 so can start taking it whenever I want.
However, I do have sympathy for those more vulnerable either due to health or due to finances or due to both.

Originally Posted by: westv 


We are in a similar position. But what troubles me is this growing sense of foreboding: the problems are escalating everywhere you look and nobody has any precedent for this. The Spanish Flu pandemic, the closest analogy, happened in a very different world.


The economic challenges are within our control to overcome even if this goes on for a year or more. The healthcare challenges are not fully controllable.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
16 March 2020 23:20:32


 


 


I wonder how coincidental it is that two of the three companies mentioned the most in terms of switching to manufacturing ventilators are big supporters (and funders) of the Brexit campaign & Tory Party - namely JCB and Dyson?


#corruptscumbags


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Maybe it's just that the people who run companies that actually make stuff don't vote Labour?


It's all a fiction anyway - it would take many, many months to tool up factories, build the necessary skills and establish the supply chains.


Too little too late to have any effect on mortality in the first wave.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Lionel Hutz
16 March 2020 23:21:10

France has announced a huge package of support.

Macron said no business will go bankrupt because of the virus.

We need to do something similar - and I think we will.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


While I don't really believe that he can save every single business, it is statements like that which lead me to believe that we can stave off the worst of the effects economically. The degree of political will shown will be crucial. 

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Quantum
16 March 2020 23:21:42


Just on a potential 18 month lockdown. What happens to the millions of people who in a few months time will have had the virus and are now fit, well and immune? Are they expected to sit indoors all day still while society grinds to a halt? 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


People who have tested positive and then test negitive will presumably be allowed out.


They will have to be.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
16 March 2020 23:23:32


It's official. The cat is out of the back. This from the BBC:




Dire prediction sees shift in UK strategy






James Gallagher


Health and science correspondent, BBC News






The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".


A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.


The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.


Their calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.


Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.


However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.


Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.


The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.


We are in this for the long haul.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51903319


 




Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


So the govt strategy wasn't bad, in principle, it's just that the pandemic is so bad that the health service being overwhelmed is inevitable.


This is why, imo, we should have been more agressive in January. Stopped this thing actually becoming a pandemic before it ends life as we know it for the best part of 2 years.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
16 March 2020 23:26:19


 So the govt strategy wasn't bad, in principle, it's just that the pandemic is so bad that the health service being overwhelmed is inevitable.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The number of deaths here compared to similar European countries will show which approach was better. The safety and survival of the people is the number one duty for every govt.


 

xioni2
16 March 2020 23:30:52

Some of the potential numbers of deaths are historically huge. As a reference, ~67,000 civilians died here in WWII.

Gandalf The White
16 March 2020 23:31:15


 


While I don't really believe that he can save every single business, it is statements like that which lead me to believe that we can stave off the worst of the effects economically. The degree of political will shown will be crucial. 


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


I'm not sure if you mean for logistical, administrative or financial reasons?  I think it is possible and arguably is necessary.  If people are confident that they will continue to get paid and will still have a job to return to it removes instantly one of the greatest areas of anxiety.  It also means that the pent up demand will return as soon as controls are relaxed and in the meantime people can spend in whatever ways are still possible.


I haven't run the numbers - and it may be too tricky - but I doubt there's much to choose in terms of cost between supporting the economy through this and trying to tidy up the chaos if we don't.


When you look at what is affected it's a major part of our economy being a wide range of services: leisure and hospitality (bars, hotels, cafes, restaurants, pubs etc), entertainment (cinemas, theatres, etc), travel (buses, trains, airlines, shipping, cruises etc), retail (a sector already under pressure).


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
16 March 2020 23:33:22


 


People who have tested positive and then test negitive will presumably be allowed out.


They will have to be.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes, you'd certainly hope so.  As I said earlier, if nothing else it would help to reduce the rate of infection - and provide some boost to businesses.


But I wonder if that's even been thought about yet, given how fast events are shaping policy.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
17 March 2020 00:05:16


 


It is self evident that restricting travel would have reduced the numbers of infected people coming in and the consequent rate of spread. Taiwan introduced very restrictive border controls from the outset. South Korea did not have to introduce serious border controls, because all sane people were avoiding the country when it was an outlier in any case.


Singapore is a special case, but it is a small geographic area with a strong central government which is obeyed and which has firm control (people have not been allowed to access chewing gum for years for example).


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Now it is pandemic what is the point of restricting travel? I don't care if I get Spanish Coronavirus or English one. As long as people obey the National rules of that Country it would have little effect unless there was mass migration to one Country. It would not be sensible for anybody hanging about an airport though so I guess it is self regulating.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
JHutch
17 March 2020 00:05:21

From a personal point of view, one of the worst things for me is when do I visit my parents again? They are both around 70 but bearing that in mind neither are really high risk i would have thought (eg my dad does things like 20-30 mile walks in a day sometimes). However, the thought of indirectly killing one or both of your parents is a pretty frightening thought. I am next due to go back in early May so i guess i have time to see how things pan out before making a decision. Having spoken to others my age it seems a pretty common concern.

NickR
17 March 2020 00:14:52
How the scientists advising the govt got it so wrong.

https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/1239618707388850182?s=19 
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
17 March 2020 00:26:32


 


So the govt strategy wasn't bad, in principle, it's just that the pandemic is so bad that the health service being overwhelmed is inevitable.


This is why, imo, we should have been more agressive in January. Stopped this thing actually becoming a pandemic before it ends life as we know it for the best part of 2 years.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No, it really was bad. It was based on modelling for flu. Health experts were telling them to look at what was actually happening on the ground.


https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1239677922660712448?s=19

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
fairweather
17 March 2020 00:33:03


 


This isn't helpful. The govt policy is being informed by the scientific advisers. They may not have the approach, but it isn't Boris and 'the tories' that are doing this. And if this is the wrong approach, they should not be derided for simply using the literature to inform their response.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Though the policy is partly driven by the lack of intensive care and the underfunding of the NHS for at least ten years and no contingency plan for something that has been predicted as coming soon. That's of course when people like Gobe were deriding experts.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
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