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llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 March 2020 16:37:59

Plenty more to come, unfortunately.........

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
15 March 2020 16:41:14

Just remembered that when I went to Weymouth ASDA earlier today they had completely sold out of eggs. 


Not one carton in what is normally a large aisle filled with the things.


Maybe the Portlanders are trying to make their own vaccines?


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm


 


 


 

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Brian Gaze
15 March 2020 16:42:07

Excellent piece by an epidemiologist from Harvard which slaughters the approach being taken by the UK government.


 




I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire



 


Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future
Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them.

When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.

Let me take the arguments on their merits. The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak and prevent a catastrophic “second wave” next winter – even if Matt Hancock has tried to put that particular genie back in the bottle this weekend. A large proportion of the population is at lower risk of developing severe disease: roughly speaking anyone up to the age of 40. So the reasoning goes that even though in a perfect world we’d not want anyone to take the risk of infection, generating immunity in younger people is a way of protecting the population as a whole.

We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available. This is made worse by the fact that people who are badly ill tend to remain so for a long time, which increases the burden.

And of course you can’t restrict it to this age group. Think of all the people aged between 20 and 40 who work in healthcare, or old people’s homes. You don’t need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call “severe outcomes”. In Washington State, nearly all the deaths reported so far have been associated with nursing homes. Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted?

About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bugglesgate
15 March 2020 16:42:56


Just remembered that when I went to Weymouth ASDA earlier today they had completely sold out of eggs. 


Not one carton in what is normally a large aisle filled with the things.


Maybe the Portlanders are trying to make their own vaccines?


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm


Originally Posted by: NMA 


 


Yes, the folks mentioned this the other day.  Odd thing to hoard.  The things don't keep long and you need to process them into something to freeze them. 


I'm wondering how much of this hoarded food will eventually end up in the wheelie bin 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Gooner
15 March 2020 16:44:50

From Ulric 


"The risk of a second wave doesn't depend on the herd immunity to the extent you might like to believe. Mutation is also a risk.


 


The facts are these. Growth in cases is now exponential. Projecting this forward implies that this wave will peak in the UK in April because it will simply run out of people to infect. At that point, a vaccine will still be 12-18 months from mass production on a sufficient scale.


 


In the end, the choice will be down to each individual and modified by the circumstances they find themselves in. Lock yourself away if you can but how many people will be able to do that for 18 months until a vaccine is available?"


 


 


Christ this virus  really has to move then if we think it April it will run out of people to infect - 2 weeks ago today we were at 36 infected in the UK with 0 deaths  - today we are about 1600 infected with 35 deaths  ? , it really is expected to shoot up - quite scary really 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
15 March 2020 16:46:57


Excellent piece by an epidemiologist from Harvard which slaughters the approach being taken by the UK government.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I spoke on the phone to my neighbour (retired) virologist and she was also scathing about the herd immunity and the communication shambles from HMG (and she is a Tory voter). She says Asian countries have by far the best response, partly because of their experience with SARS I and partly because of their high tech approach.

Arcus
15 March 2020 16:48:08


Excellent piece by an epidemiologist from Harvard which slaughters the approach being taken by the UK government.


 




I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire



 


Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future
Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them.

When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.

Let me take the arguments on their merits. The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak and prevent a catastrophic “second wave” next winter – even if Matt Hancock has tried to put that particular genie back in the bottle this weekend. A large proportion of the population is at lower risk of developing severe disease: roughly speaking anyone up to the age of 40. So the reasoning goes that even though in a perfect world we’d not want anyone to take the risk of infection, generating immunity in younger people is a way of protecting the population as a whole.

We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available. This is made worse by the fact that people who are badly ill tend to remain so for a long time, which increases the burden.

And of course you can’t restrict it to this age group. Think of all the people aged between 20 and 40 who work in healthcare, or old people’s homes. You don’t need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call “severe outcomes”. In Washington State, nearly all the deaths reported so far have been associated with nursing homes. Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted?

About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
 
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Bit further down:


"The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself."


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
xioni2
15 March 2020 16:50:17


 Bit further down:


"The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself."



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


And this is what Sir Patrick CSO said on Friday (direct quote):  "Our aim is to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to the disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it".

Ulric
15 March 2020 16:51:57


Christ this virus  really has to move then if we think it April it will run out of people to infect - 2 weeks ago today we were at 36 infected in the UK with 0 deaths  - today we are about 1600 infected with 35 deaths  ? , it really is expected to shoot up - quite scary really 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


That is how exponential growth works. Look at how fast Italy reached a huge number. They say we are just 10 or so days behind them.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
westv
15 March 2020 16:52:25
We would all be lost without all the TWO experts on "herd immunity".
At least it will be mild!
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 March 2020 16:53:31

Both my wife and daughter have blood conditions that mean they are restricted to using only paracetemol for main relief. My daughter has to take them most days, but now has only 6 tablets left. She lives in Berko, I'm sure you might know where that is, but couldn't find a pack anywhere. End result of panic buying is her GP will give her a prescription and she will have to pay an exhorbatant price for something she normally gets for about 30p in the supermarket. Well done to those who've bought them because of.....what I'm not sure.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Quantum
15 March 2020 16:55:01

Is this herd immunity actually HMG's strategy?


Commnication shambles aside (no quarrals there) if HMG just wanted herd immunity then why are they implementing social distancing measures at all? And this was prior to the so called U turn.


It may well be HMG is simply trying to make quarantines more viable in the long term (given that this is projected to last 2 months)


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
doctormog
15 March 2020 16:55:06

We would all be lost without all the TWO experts on "herd immunity".

Originally Posted by: westv 


I feel your last three words are superfluous. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
15 March 2020 16:55:23


 


That is how exponential growth works. Look at how fast Italy reached a huge number. They say we are just 10 or so days behind them.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Yes , I know , I was explaining to my Mother who was finding it hard to believe . I have spoken to a few people who try to tell me this is blown out of proportion 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Justin W
15 March 2020 16:55:46

A slowdown in growth in positives from 43% to 20% today

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Arcus
15 March 2020 16:56:09


 


And this is what Sir Patrick CSO said on Friday (direct quote):  "Our aim is to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to the disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it".


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


The point is, even in the slaughtering of the Government policy, there is an acceptance of 60%+ infection over time. I'm not sure a Harvard professor knows the tolerances of the NHS either and how best to manage the outbreak compared to our scientists, but hey-ho. You pays your money and chooses your experts I guess.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
15 March 2020 17:01:05


Is this herd immunity actually HMG's strategy?


Commnication shambles aside (no quarrals there) if HMG just wanted herd immunity then why are they implementing social distancing measures at all? And this was prior to the so called U turn.


It may well be HMG is simply trying to make quarantines more viable in the long term (given that this is projected to last 2 months)


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's an acceptance of the most likely situation before a vaccine is available, it is not a policy. This is where a lot of people seem to be getting bogged-down. Some of the language that's been used on interviews etc. could have been better - definitely.


Social distancing and other measures need to occur in order that the NHS maintains it's ability to treat those that need treating, and those measures were always being talked about as being needed at the correct time.


I believe the modelling approach is due to be published next week. Anyone know when that's likely to be?

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Bugglesgate
15 March 2020 17:03:25


Both my wife and daughter have blood conditions that mean they are restricted to using only paracetemol for main relief. My daughter has to take them most days, but now has only 6 tablets left. She lives in Berko, I'm sure you might know where that is, but couldn't find a pack anywhere. End result of panic buying is her GP will give her a prescription and she will have to pay an exhorbatant price for something she normally gets for about 30p in the supermarket. Well done to those who've bought them because of.....what I'm not sure.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


 



Yes, this is the problem.  I  was trying to  get my elderly parents  (mid 80s) set up for on-line   grocery shopping this morning.  Ocado   have stopped new registrations  and Waitrose  had some kind of log in problem that was almost certainly caused by being swamped.   (they have a Waitrose account that I set up for them years ago).  We eventually managed to register for an account with Tesco and put an order in, but the soonest delivery  I could get was  Next  Saturday.  What actually gets delivered of course is a moot point !


They really need this service, (as I don't want them going into town  like they usually do) and we struggled to obtain it becuase of "headless chicken"  syndrome.


WRT to meds,  fortunately they have a bulk load of paracetamol and Ibuprofen (they both have various painful old age related conditions).  I had a hernia operation back in the autumn and was given a load of these.  I wasn't in particular discomfort so stopped taking them so loads left.

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
15 March 2020 17:03:54


Both my wife and daughter have blood conditions that mean they are restricted to using only paracetemol for main relief. My daughter has to take them most days, but now has only 6 tablets left. She lives in Berko, I'm sure you might know where that is, but couldn't find a pack anywhere. End result of panic buying is her GP will give her a prescription and she will have to pay an exhorbatant price for something she normally gets for about 30p in the supermarket. Well done to those who've bought them because of.....what I'm not sure.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Collective Insanity.


They'd all been taken as well from the Weymouth Asda...


The tanks will be on the streets this week. Not far for them to travel as Bovington on the doorstep so to speak.


https://www.army.mod.uk/who-we-are/our-schools-and-colleges/armour/


https://www.tankmuseum.org/home


They might need to bring some of these out of retirement though, as the Army isn't what it once was.

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Brian Gaze
15 March 2020 17:05:30

All Dutch schools are to be closed from 16 March, while all restaurants and bars are to be closed from today (18:00 CET), the government announced at a press conference this afternoon.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
15 March 2020 17:06:38


Both my wife and daughter have blood conditions that mean they are restricted to using only paracetemol for main relief. My daughter has to take them most days, but now has only 6 tablets left. She lives in Berko, I'm sure you might know where that is, but couldn't find a pack anywhere. End result of panic buying is her GP will give her a prescription and she will have to pay an exhorbatant price for something she normally gets for about 30p in the supermarket. Well done to those who've bought them because of.....what I'm not sure.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Sorry to hear that. Unfortunately I know what it is like around here at the moment. She want want to try joining one of the WhatsApp groups - there is probably one for her street. Someone on it may be prepared to give some paracetamol to her. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
15 March 2020 17:06:51
Lombardy region of Italy has seen 1,587 new cases and 252 new deaths

Full Italy data to follow
speckledjim
15 March 2020 17:08:00


A slowdown in growth in positives from 43% to 20% today


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Only because there was a reduction in numbers tested - 1400 less

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gavin D
15 March 2020 17:09:34
Scandinavian Airlines to cut 90% of staff and will suspend most of its operations owing to "essentially non-existing demand for air travel"

Ulric
15 March 2020 17:11:02


 


Only because there was a reduction in numbers tested - 1400 less


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


I think Justin is saying that a lower proportion of the tests done were positive. that wouldn't be affected by the total number of tests.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré

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