She also sounds complacent about the young and middle aged if Burke at the White House is correct about data from Italy and France. 

What did they say exactly? I don't know about ICU admissions, but the mortality data from Italy couldn't be more clear. It's an old people's issue and almost exclusively those with underlying conditions (less than 1% of deaths in Italy so far were without pre-existing conditions).

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_18marzo%20ENG.pdf

PM's spokesman slaps down prospect of London-imposed travel ban

Downing Street has dismissed suggestions of a travel ban in and around the capital.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There are no plans to close down the transport network in London and there is zero prospect of any restrictions being placed on travelling in and out of London."

That doesn't surprise me actually, I think they will do shutdowns though (of pubs, restaurants etc.)

Of course that doesn't mean there won't be any new restrictions in London.

209 deaths in Spain over the last 24h (767 total).

3431 new confirmed infections (17,147 total).

Belgium slowly ramping up too: 309 (1759) new confirmed cases and 7 deaths over the last 24h (21 total)

But of a PSA. It's not possible for people to always isolate themselves for logistical reasons. However when it is possible DO IT. Don't let someone else socially distance. I've put my life on hold since January. Yes it sucks but you get used to it. Everyone needs to be socially responsible.

Your actions affect others.

Interesting that the countries with the highest number of cases per head of population are all microstates, except Italy. (Iceland's not that small geographically but it only has 364,000 people). Obviously the Vatican City is a bit of a small sample.

Wouldn't it be ironic if despite the above you were indeed the first one here to get it and go through it? That german virologist's research I quoted yesterday was showing that in many people (in Germany at least) the virus attacks the gastro system too.

'I can't socially distance because I need to do X to work' is an acceptable excuse

'I can't socially distance because there is no online delivery for my area' is an acceptable excuse

'I can't socially distance because I've already booked this leisure...' is not an acceptable excuse

'I can't socially distance because the Tories..' is not an acceptable excuse

And in circumstances where it is not possible to socially isolate you can still take precautions. Every encounter raises your risk, but more encounters = higher risk. If you have to go on a crowded public transport route twice a day don't use that as an excuse to mingle over the weekends. 2/7 is still better than 0/7.

'I will socially distance from everyone except Tories' could be acceptable to some 

I agree with your post obviously.

Sometimes you just get unlucky! Plus, as you can imagine, I didn't have much luck making everyone around me also adhere to my own meticulous protocals!

Nevertheless I am very confident that if I had got COVID I have passed it on to no one, I've been that careful. And I went into full bunker mode even before the 'incubation period' ended when I realized I was part of the transmission chain.

You do make me laugh sometimes Q

They should do it anyway imo.

She flagged up concerns about the millennial generation. I think because a lot of people think it is ONLY the old who need to worry. In younger people I think it is about as deadly as normal influenza is in old folk.  

Personally I think it unlikely that you or I have had COVID-19. However, until an antibody test is available we won't know for certain. 

Do you or anyone else know how far off an antibody test is? (I'm talking globally not specifically UK)

I think Channel 4 News mentioned a UK company (with a deal to sell millions of their test to SK). Also:

On 28 February 2020, a South Korean company called PCL filed a request to Ministry of Food and Drug Safety of South Korea for their antibody-based detection kit, COVID-19 Ag GICA Rapid. Unlike an RT-PCR-based detection kit, PCL claims that their antibody-based kit could make a diagnosis within 10 min.

On 8 March 2020, Taiwan's Academia Sinica announced a monoclonal antibody specifically binding nucleocapsid protein (N protein) of the novel coronavirus had been successfully generated and tested in 19 days. If a rapid immune-based test kit can be developed it may be able to detect the disease within 15 to 20 minutes just like a rapid influenza test.[87]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

Age profile from the NYT:

Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

----------------------------------

Mortality rate higher for older age groups.

Very interesting, thanks. Not a large sample yet, but:

• ~50% of ICU admissions (~60) in the US were <65 years old


• 12% were between 20-44 years old


• 38% of hospital admissions were aged between 20 and 54


• No info though on underlying conditions, which could be material

Report here 

TABLE. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case–fatality percentages for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

Probably another reason why Burke yesterday flagged up the risk to younger people. Very worrying. I wonder whether the age profile is changing as the virus spreads. 

The report doesn't mention underlying conditions though, which could be a very material factor. I know that there can be plenty of younger people with undiagnosed conditions, but overall I think healthy younger people shouldn't worry much for themselves.

Iceland no food 

Sainsburys - no fresh meat , no canned food , hardly any crisps , frozen section empty

Yesterday Sainsburys in Banbury had 3,000 visitors , impossible to keep this virus quiet 

I doubt it and as a young person (apparently, 40 isn't actually young and 54 certainly isn't!) I'm not overly worried. The reason? I suspect there are orders of magnitudes more asymptomatic or very mild cases which aren't being tested.

It stands to reason that if you've been admitted to hospital and tested, for example, you will flag up. If you're self isolating at home with mildish flu-like symptoms, you're not part of the figures and thus they're skewed higher.

Stats is fun!