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Brian Gaze
19 March 2020 11:48:55


 


True, but this could be just her opinion or perhaps just the earlier plan from London.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


She also sounds complacent about the young and middle aged if Burke at the White House is correct about data from Italy and France. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
19 March 2020 11:52:48


 She also sounds complacent about the young and middle aged if Burke at the White House is correct about data from Italy and France. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


What did they say exactly? I don't know about ICU admissions, but the mortality data from Italy couldn't be more clear. It's an old people's issue and almost exclusively those with underlying conditions (less than 1% of deaths in Italy so far were without pre-existing conditions).


https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_18marzo%20ENG.pdf

Heavy Weather 2013
19 March 2020 11:54:41

PM's spokesman slaps down prospect of London-imposed travel ban


Downing Street has dismissed suggestions of a travel ban in and around the capital.


The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There are no plans to close down the transport network in London and there is zero prospect of any restrictions being placed on travelling in and out of London."


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
xioni2
19 March 2020 11:56:16


PM's spokesman slaps down prospect of London-imposed travel ban


Downing Street has dismissed suggestions of a travel ban in and around the capital.


The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There are no plans to close down the transport network in London and there is zero prospect of any restrictions being placed on travelling in and out of London."


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


That doesn't surprise me actually, I think they will do shutdowns though (of pubs, restaurants etc.)

westv
19 March 2020 11:58:02


PM's spokesman slaps down prospect of London-imposed travel ban


Downing Street has dismissed suggestions of a travel ban in and around the capital.


The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There are no plans to close down the transport network in London and there is zero prospect of any restrictions being placed on travelling in and out of London."


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Of course that doesn't mean there won't be any new restrictions in London.


At least it will be mild!
xioni2
19 March 2020 11:58:16

209 deaths in Spain over the last 24h (767 total).


3431 new confirmed infections (17,147 total).

xioni2
19 March 2020 12:05:45

Belgium slowly ramping up too: 309 (1759) new confirmed cases and 7 deaths over the last 24h (21 total)

Quantum
19 March 2020 12:12:26

But of a PSA. It's not possible for people to always isolate themselves for logistical reasons. However when it is possible DO IT. Don't let someone else socially distance. I've put my life on hold since January. Yes it sucks but you get used to it. Everyone needs to be socially responsible.


Your actions affect others.


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Darren S
19 March 2020 12:14:32

Interesting that the countries with the highest number of cases per head of population are all microstates, except Italy. (Iceland's not that small geographically but it only has 364,000 people). Obviously the Vatican City is a bit of a small sample.

































































































Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
xioni2
19 March 2020 12:14:49


But of a PSA. It's not possible for people to always isolate themselves for logistical reasons. However when it is possible DO IT. Don't let someone else socially distance. I've put my life on hold since January. Yes it sucks but you get used to it. Everyone needs to be socially responsible.


Your actions affect others.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Wouldn't it be ironic if despite the above you were indeed the first one here to get it and go through it? That german virologist's research I quoted yesterday was showing that in many people (in Germany at least) the virus attacks the gastro system too.


 

Quantum
19 March 2020 12:15:51

'I can't socially distance because I need to do X to work' is an acceptable excuse


'I can't socially distance because there is no online delivery for my area' is an acceptable excuse


'I can't socially distance because I've already booked this leisure...' is not an acceptable excuse


'I can't socially distance because the Tories..' is not an acceptable excuse


 


And in circumstances where it is not possible to socially isolate you can still take precautions. Every encounter raises your risk, but more encounters = higher risk. If you have to go on a crowded public transport route twice a day don't use that as an excuse to mingle over the weekends. 2/7 is still better than 0/7.


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
19 March 2020 12:18:14


'I can't socially distance because I need to do X to work' is an acceptable excuse


'I can't socially distance because there is no online delivery for my area' is an acceptable excuse


'I can't socially distance because I've already booked this leisure...' is not an acceptable excuse


'I can't socially distance because the Tories..' is not an acceptable excuse


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


'I will socially distance from everyone except Tories' could be acceptable to some 


I agree with your post obviously.

Quantum
19 March 2020 12:20:15


 


Wouldn't it be ironic if despite the above you were indeed the first one here to get it and go through it? That german virologist's research I quoted yesterday was showing that in many people (in Germany at least) the virus attacks the gastro system too.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Sometimes you just get unlucky! Plus, as you can imagine, I didn't have much luck making everyone around me also adhere to my own meticulous protocals!


Nevertheless I am very confident that if I had got COVID I have passed it on to no one, I've been that careful. And I went into full bunker mode even before the 'incubation period' ended when I realized I was part of the transmission chain.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
19 March 2020 12:22:40


Sometimes you just get unlucky! Plus, as you can imagine, I didn't have much luck making everyone around me also adhere to my own meticulous protocals!


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You do make me laugh sometimes Q


Quantum
19 March 2020 12:24:36


PM's spokesman slaps down prospect of London-imposed travel ban


Downing Street has dismissed suggestions of a travel ban in and around the capital.


The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There are no plans to close down the transport network in London and there is zero prospect of any restrictions being placed on travelling in and out of London."


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


They should do it anyway imo.


 


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
19 March 2020 12:38:36


 


What did they say exactly? I don't know about ICU admissions, but the mortality data from Italy couldn't be more clear. It's an old people's issue and almost exclusively those with underlying conditions (less than 1% of deaths in Italy so far were without pre-existing conditions).


https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_18marzo%20ENG.pdf


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


She flagged up concerns about the millennial generation. I think because a lot of people think it is ONLY the old who need to worry. In younger people I think it is about as deadly as normal influenza is in old folk.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
19 March 2020 12:40:54


 


Sometimes you just get unlucky! Plus, as you can imagine, I didn't have much luck making everyone around me also adhere to my own meticulous protocals!


Nevertheless I am very confident that if I had got COVID I have passed it on to no one, I've been that careful. And I went into full bunker mode even before the 'incubation period' ended when I realized I was part of the transmission chain.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Personally I think it unlikely that you or I have had COVID-19. However, until an antibody test is available we won't know for certain. 


Do you or anyone else know how far off an antibody test is? (I'm talking globally not specifically UK)


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
19 March 2020 12:44:55


 Do you or anyone else know how far off an antibody test is? (I'm talking globally not specifically UK)


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think Channel 4 News mentioned a UK company (with a deal to sell millions of their test to SK). Also:


On 28 February 2020, a South Korean company called PCL filed a request to Ministry of Food and Drug Safety of South Korea for their antibody-based detection kit, COVID-19 Ag GICA Rapid. Unlike an RT-PCR-based detection kit, PCL claims that their antibody-based kit could make a diagnosis within 10 min.


On 8 March 2020, Taiwan's Academia Sinica announced a monoclonal antibody specifically binding nucleocapsid protein (N protein) of the novel coronavirus had been successfully generated and tested in 19 days. If a rapid immune-based test kit can be developed it may be able to detect the disease within 15 to 20 minutes just like a rapid influenza test.[87]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

Maunder Minimum
19 March 2020 12:50:29

Age profile from the NYT:



Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.



New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html


----------------------------------


Mortality rate higher for older age groups.


New world order coming.
xioni2
19 March 2020 12:59:30


Age profile from the NYT:



Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Very interesting, thanks. Not a large sample yet, but:



  • ~50% of ICU admissions (~60) in the US were <65 years old

  • 12% were between 20-44 years old

  • 38% of hospital admissions were aged between 20 and 54

  • No info though on underlying conditions, which could be material


xioni2
19 March 2020 13:02:11

Report here 


 



TABLE. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case–fatality percentages for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States, February 12–March 16, 2020Return to your place in the text
























































Age group (yrs) (no. of cases)%*
HospitalizationICU admissionCase-fatality
0–19 (123)1.6–2.500
20–44 (705)14.3–20.82.0–4.20.1–0.2
45–54 (429)21.2–28.35.4–10.40.5–0.8
55–64 (429)20.5–30.14.7–11.21.4–2.6
65–74 (409)28.6–43.58.1–18.82.7–4.9
75–84 (210)30.5–58.710.5–31.04.3–10.5
≥85 (144)31.3–70.36.3–29.010.4–27.3
Total (2,449)20.7–31.44.9–11.51.8–3.4
Brian Gaze
19 March 2020 13:03:48


Age profile from the NYT:



Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.



New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html


----------------------------------


Mortality rate higher for older age groups.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Probably another reason why Burke yesterday flagged up the risk to younger people. Very worrying. I wonder whether the age profile is changing as the virus spreads. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
19 March 2020 13:07:13


 Probably another reason why Burke yesterday flagged up the risk to younger people. Very worrying. I wonder whether the age profile is changing as the virus spreads. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The report doesn't mention underlying conditions though, which could be a very material factor. I know that there can be plenty of younger people with undiagnosed conditions, but overall I think healthy younger people shouldn't worry much for themselves.

Gooner
19 March 2020 13:11:32

Panic buying in full swing round here. Huge queues outside supermarkets and petrol stations

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Iceland no food 


Sainsburys - no fresh meat , no canned food , hardly any crisps , frozen section empty


Yesterday Sainsburys in Banbury had 3,000 visitors , impossible to keep this virus quiet 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
19 March 2020 13:16:02


 


Probably another reason why Burke yesterday flagged up the risk to younger people. Very worrying. I wonder whether the age profile is changing as the virus spreads. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I doubt it and as a young person (apparently, 40 isn't actually young and 54 certainly isn't!) I'm not overly worried. The reason? I suspect there are orders of magnitudes more asymptomatic or very mild cases which aren't being tested.


It stands to reason that if you've been admitted to hospital and tested, for example, you will flag up. If you're self isolating at home with mildish flu-like symptoms, you're not part of the figures and thus they're skewed higher.


Stats is fun!


Leysdown, north Kent

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