theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
22 March 2020 18:26:12


 


This is the tracker I follow. Don't think it has updated yet to include the latest figures.


https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3d6015ac-6bb2-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Shouldn't there be concerns that we are a lot slower to shut down v other countries when comparing deaths 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sevendust
22 March 2020 18:26:14


 


I posted a few days ago the email I got from one such firm offering spreads on the number of times Boris mentioned certain buzzwords in his daily speeches. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


LOL - we commented on the word "crucial" which is a favourite


 

Ulric
22 March 2020 18:28:53

German Chancellor Merkel is in self-quarantine at home after a doctor she had contact with tested positive.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for coronavirus he is asymptomatic and 'feeling fine'

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Perhaps there is a god after all.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Brian Gaze
22 March 2020 18:29:26


Why is the UK death rate so high?


Lack of testing? Maybe. UK testing is high but it's only moderately high when looking on a per capita basis


Other countries not counting COVID deaths? Maybe. Germany might be doing this in particular with patients with comorbidities


Health care just not as good? Quite possibly. NHS just is not that good compared to the rest of Europe.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What do you make of today's reduction in UK deaths?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
22 March 2020 18:31:15

UK and France mortality rate (%) up to 8am today:



Pretty much on the same trend, though French data slightly 'smoother'. 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Justin W
22 March 2020 18:31:59


 


What do you make of today's reduction in UK deaths?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It is of no statistical importance. As Dr Jenny Harries said: "We know the number will go much, much higher"

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gooner
22 March 2020 18:33:10

I don't know what to make of the up and downs of cases and deaths , so confusing for all . I have just had a message from a mate saying " we are on top of this now , we should see a daily drop " 


Cases reported on Mar 14th 342 , then they dropped on 15th 251 and dropped again on 16th 152 ……...so a job to understand it all 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


westv
22 March 2020 18:33:24


 


I posted a few days ago the email I got from one such firm offering spreads on the number of times Boris mentioned certain buzzwords in his daily speeches. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That sounds like Paddy Power.

At least it will be mild!
Heavy Weather 2013
22 March 2020 18:33:26


 


It is of no statistical importance. As Dr Jenny Harries said: "We know the number will go much, much higher"


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Yes there was a day last week where deaths dropped slightly DOD. The trend is very much upwards Brian, I am sorry to say.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Chunky Pea
22 March 2020 18:33:44


Perhaps there is a god after all.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Rand Paul certainly isn't the worst of them Ulric. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ulric
22 March 2020 18:40:29


 


Rand Paul certainly isn't the worst of them Ulric. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yes, but he was the only one to vote against the first round of funding for anti-covid19 measures. There is a kind of poetic justice there.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gooner
22 March 2020 18:44:48

The deaths today were of ages between 18 and 102

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


18 


Very sad 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
22 March 2020 18:46:44
Deaths in England have fallen by 16 compared to yesterday
Brian Gaze
22 March 2020 18:47:53


 


Shouldn't there be concerns that we are a lot slower to shut down v other countries when comparing deaths 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I think we should have shut down even more by now. Although if the death rate has peaked then the government and advisers will be able to say they've handled this quite well.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
22 March 2020 18:52:04


 


I think we should have shut down even more by now. Although if the death rate has peaked then the government and advisers will be able to say they've handled this quite well.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Me too Brian


But if the death rates have peaked then the advisors and experts have got something HUGELY wrong and although a success they would come in for an awful lot of flack from all 


In saying the above , I am still finding it hard to believe the numbers that I have been reading , given the size of London and the cases there , wouldn't we expect to see a higher number of deaths ?


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2020 18:53:29


 


Yes, but he was the only one to vote against the first round of funding for anti-covid19 measures. There is a kind of poetic justice there.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 

But he’s asymptomatic and ‘feeling fine’.  So not really poetic justice!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
22 March 2020 18:54:21


 


18 


Very sad 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


its incredible that someone aged 18 has died from this when no one under the age of 30 has died from it in Italy, and they have had 5476 deaths.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
22 March 2020 18:55:12


 


What do you make of today's reduction in UK deaths?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'm not really sure what to make of it. Probably just a noisy signal because n is still relatively low.


For confirmed cases it seems like there is a big jump every 3 days and it's relatively flat in between. I suspect that would be due to labs tending to all report at the same time rather than any genuine periodicity.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
bledur
22 March 2020 18:56:25


 


I think we should have shut down even more by now. Although if the death rate has peaked then the government and advisers will be able to say they've handled this quite well.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 I do not think a one day death rate reduction means much ,especially as it is Sunday. As for more being shut down many will think ,look at Italy , it is not helping there yet.nor Spain . Is a virus not airborne so a 2 metre gap and washing hands might help but not stop it spreading.

Quantum
22 March 2020 19:00:13

Speaking of which, big drop in number of cases today. Only 665.


My JFF model is actually only predicting 30k cases in total today.


It's showing a fairly rapid drop in R0 which I'm suprised about tbh. Not going to get optimistic, suspect it's more to do with bad data than anything else.


If testing is really ramping up then the approximation that we are resolving a fixed proportion of cases may no longer be valid.


 


So may add an additional parameter to my model which assumes a linear growth in resolving capability over time. Will wait maybe a week to do this though.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2020 19:00:27


I think we should have shut down even more by now. Although if the death rate has peaked then the government and advisers will be able to say they've handled this quite well.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I very much doubt the numbers have peaked yet, but if they genuinely have, the government and advisors have handled it well!  I think we’ve got a long way to go before resting on our laurels!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
22 March 2020 19:04:11

So the JFF model predicted 1303 cases today and we actually saw 665.


So perhaps expect an overshoot tommorow? 2000+ rather than the expected 1480.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2020 19:05:49


 


Me too Brian


But if the death rates have peaked then the advisors and experts have got something HUGELY wrong and although a success they would come in for an awful lot of flack from all 


In saying the above , I am still finding it hard to believe the numbers that I have been reading , given the size of London and the cases there , wouldn't we expect to see a higher number of deaths ?


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Two points worth considering:  the lag time and the fact that the London population is mainly young, fit people. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ulric
22 March 2020 19:06:01


So the JFF model predicted 1303 cases today and we actually saw 665.


So perhaps expect an overshoot tommorow? 2000+ rather than the expected 1480.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


My guess would be a weekend wobble.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Heavy Weather 2013
22 March 2020 19:06:18


So the JFF model predicted 1303 cases today and we actually saw 665.


So perhaps expect an overshoot tommorow? 2000+ rather than the expected 1480.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

 


We saw drop in cases last Sunday as well. It’s real hard. Tests the last few days have been well below the 8k we manage i think on Wednesday. 


It’s hard to get a clear picture 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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