Updated trajectory

I don’t see how they can possibly know this, given the limited testing carried out.

Totally agree. 

This originated on Twitter ^^^^^^

Just read that Chinese officials state..

"There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency. The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter of 2017"

So given the city's been on lockdown its not inconceivable there is a back log cremated to be collected. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-27/stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

Those numbers might seem high, but the city of  London see's around 76000 deaths a year and London has one of UK's lowest deaths per 100,000. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregistrationsummarytables/2018

Also Harries said on the 5pm conf. that it was too soon to put a date on a peak.  Therefore i’ve no idea where this date of 12th April has suddenly sprung from?

Yes, seems a bit soon, given teh current trajectory - although, I suppose, any changes due to teh lock down may start to feed through by them - with luck.

Well, relative to what? This seems optimistic to me, if the peak, ie number of cases/deaths per day, starts to drop then you can't just drop the restrictions straight away otherwise you run the risk of a second, higher peak following in a few weeks.

Part of me is hopeful that, mindful of what will have happened by that time, people will be very aware of social distancing and so a lifting of some restrictions will not result in as rapid a rise in cases as would have occurred in 'normal' times - have to wait and see what the next few weeks bring.

PS, I would have thought that most politicians hate the current restrictions.

If Coronavirus cases do level off post week of April 12th, then restrictions could be lifted relatively soon. One close colleague says that Boris Johnson ‘knows they’re necessary, but he really hates them’ and so would like them gone as soon as is feasible

— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) March 27, 2020

Interesting to read posts about how lockdown is being observed. We're still going to work. Not everything is digital in a law office so there's still a need to be there physically some of the time at least. Everyone has an individual room, so I'm happy enough that the infection risk is low, provided proper hygiene is practiced. We can certainly all keep more than 2 metres away at all times.

Out and about, we've been locked down here since mid march. Commercially, the rules are being followed. But as others have noticed, there is certainly an issue with observance of the rules in the social world. There is much less traffic than usual. However, I am pretty certain that not all these journeys are to/from work or to essential shops. A relative of my wife lives in a house in a town in South West Ireland and apparently her neighbours have had one or two parties. My wife suggested she call the police who could certainly shut it down. I'm fairly sanguine about the virus here. Obviously, it is a big threat. However, we locked down before the UK when we had a lower infection rate. So I think we'll be okay. However, it is essential that we properly lock down. If we do it right, I think that things will improve faster than many think. If we don't, lives will be lost and the disruption will go on longer.

Indeed, I just felt it odd that the commentator felt the need to reinforce that Johnson didn't like the restrictions, I would have taken that as a given.

This tweet is dangerous, a journalist with another unnamed sources. It implys we are close to ending this. As of today, I feel like this is only getting started.

I am sick of theses sources. Until we hear that directly from the CMO I am not buying a word of it

It has been fine here. Everyone so far has been observing safe distancing when out walking etc.

I would start by closing down more of the economy. Non-essential construction is an obvious thing to stop. After seeing Berko high street last Saturday I would also stop open air markets because it's more difficult to control the number of people.   

In addition the government advice is:

You should work from home unless it is impossible for you to do so.

Sometimes this will not be possible, as not everyone can work from home. Certain jobs require people to travel to their place of work – for instance if you operate machinery, work in construction or manufacturing, or are delivering front line services.

I would change it to:

You should work from home unless you are a key worker. If work from home is not possible and your business is not considered essential it  must shut. 

They won't get a clap from me.

Ours are awkward buggers.

The Council has now suspended recycling collections and you need to put everything in your brown (main) bin. But they didn't publicise this do most people put their recycling sacks and black box out, and they're still there now mainly. 

I forgot to put our rubbish out last night and woke as the lorry was reversing into our cul de sac at 7.30 this morning. Raced down and dragged the bin to the front. As I started bringing the pink cans/plastics back and the black box for glass/cardboard, they told me they're not taking these anymore and I'll have to put it in the general rubbish bin. I went to tip them into my own bin only to be sternly told if the lid won't properly close completely, they'll leave it. With tips shut, rat infestations and fly-tipping are going to be massive problems. 

So I went and got next-door's bin (empty because the gobshites are still stuck abroad... it's 3 weeks tomorrow ), emptied all our cans, bottles and cardboard into it and grinned as I offered it up before retreating.

Only silver lining is that they're going to be emptying every week instead of fortnight. 

some on here were defending that back around March 7th from memory?

I think quite a few people here are going to have problems. Our general recycling bins are half size ones and will continue to be emptied once a fortnight. We are so used to recycling it has never been a problem but now none of the recycling will be collected it is going to be problematic.

Went in Morrisons last night around 7pm and they had crates of fresh fruit & veg reduced to clear, mostly at between 5p and 20p.

As they didn't have all I needed, popped to Aldi and they similarly had a lot of fresh produce (including about 50 packs of 454g beef mince, which just a week ago was gold dust)

Heard from a mate that Asda this evening was the same.

Seems the supermarkets have continued ordering at panic-buy levels but purchases have tailed off a bit.

Still no surface spray to be had, nor hand soaps/gels. Toilet rolls hit and miss. As is chicken, dried pasta and most popular tinned foods.

Aldi has been the best performing in terms of availability of full product range.

If you don't think we should lockdown further fair enough. I disagree. Whatever your point of view this is worth a read:

A letter to the UK from Italy: this is what we know about your future

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/a-letter-to-the-uk-from-italy-this-is-what-we-know-about-your-future

I think people (me included) were defending the decision of people going on a cruise starting a month or so previously.

Our next door neighbours (have I mentioned we don't speak? ) went away somewhere abroad on the 7th. They're still not back. Her elderly uncle (we call him Uncle Sinister) pops in every few days to check on the place and he looks worried.

I'd think it such a shame if they were stranded somewhere and locked down in their hotel room.

Don't often agree with people called Piers.

If our Prime Minister, Health Secretary & Chief Medical Officer have all gone down in one day, can someone explain why it still makes any sense for millions of non-essential workers to be going to work? This is insanity.
Britain needs to properly lock down - NOW.

— *****Morgan (@piersmorgan) March 27, 2020

The home delivery services are log jammed - trying to get deliveries for my isolating folks is impossible :(

However, anecdotal evidence around here is the  supermarkets are well stocked and pretty quiet so I'll have to go into one of the poxy things for the first time in a decade to feed the folks - I can get my own stuff at the village shops which I feel more comfy doing (easier to get in and out quickly).

Thanks Brian, that was an interesting read. I made a mental note of how many things I 'subscribe' to already on her list.