Remove ads from site

Justin W
01 April 2020 13:25:26


 



Here you go again. I am pretty certain that it is out of the hands of Matthew Hancock or any other government official to mandate 10K or 25K tests.


There certainly needs to be more clarity about the reasons however.


Meanwhile - Israel having big problems with its more religious fruitcakes:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/israeli-police-raid-synagogues-to-enforce-coronavirus-lockdown-q5xrgncqn


"Israeli police wearing masks raided synagogues in Jerusalem and other ultra-Orthodox areas yesterday which have flouted social distancing rules and become coronavirus hotspots.


...


According to analysis carried out by the Israeli health ministry, 24 per cent of confirmed Covid-19 patients were infected in a synagogue, more than in shops or restaurants."


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Hancock said we had carried out 10,000 tests on the 30th. He lied. That is the end of the argument.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Justin W
01 April 2020 13:27:49

It is not beyond the bounds that we get to a daily mortality rate of 1,000.


To think just a few days ago HMG said it may not exceed 260.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Brian Gaze
01 April 2020 13:28:03


 


Hancock said we had carried out 10,000 tests on the 30th. He lied. That is the end of the argument.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 Another point worth making is that 10,000 tests does not necessarily equate to 10,000 people. Tucked away in the Times yesterday was a statistic which said that on day x when approx 8,000 tests were done only 4,932 people were tested. That's because a second test is often required. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
01 April 2020 13:29:44


 


That 3-day thing was, IMO, just a statistical quirk - like tossing a coin 4 times and getting 4 heads in a row.


As we're still ascending the bell curve, we have at least a week left of general death increases, IMO.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


It happened 5 times in a row with similar amplitude and identical phase and period.


Seems a bit too much of a coincidence to me.


We will see if the periodicity still exists in the data in the next couple of days. And if it does exist has the period and amplitude changed significantly?


 


Should add the JFF model without the periodicity called this day correctly.


I would expect tommorow to see a much smaller increase or even a decline. If that doesn't happen then my model has clearly got it very wrong indeed.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Heavy Weather 2013
01 April 2020 13:32:29


It is not beyond the bounds that we get to a daily mortality rate of 1,000.


To think just a few days ago HMG said it may not exceed 260.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Agreed, with over 4k positive tests and the lag in mortality this is going to get alot worse before it gets better. HMG and their projections and strategy have been nothing short of catastrophic.


And to think, some people are more worried about the economy right now. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Quantum
01 April 2020 13:34:45

So for tommorow JFF model is going for:


4230 new cases (-93)  with periodicity


4775 new cases (+451) without periodicity


 


Although if the periodicity still exists it will have gone out of phase so will have to account for that in the model parameters. Either way the increase tommorow should not be very large as it was today. If it is, then the decline in R0 that was suggested by the data may not be true after all.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
01 April 2020 13:35:57


 


 


How do you know the 'common cold' didn't begin as a CV19-type deadly virus?


The fact is, a virus killing the host hugely decreases its chances of perpetuating life and reproducing. Natural selection will always favour the mutation that has the greatest opportunity to reproduce and spread.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


The common cold is not one but around 200 viruses.


One of those viruses kills 100's of thousands each year. Only malaria kills more children globally then RSV. RSV kills thousands of elderly in the UK each year, and tens of thousands globally - however due to lack of testing the true numbers are not known. RSV is exceptionally common and almost all of us will have had it. But for most of us RSV is just a cold!!


Also some of the human coronavirus that cause the common cold are are known to kill around 8% of those that end up in ICU - mostly elderly. There has been a general lack of study into a lot of the viruses that cause the common colds especially the Coronaviruses and with regards to death's. Death's are often just marked down as flu like respiratory illnesses. 

westv
01 April 2020 13:36:15

Wasn't the 260 figure part of a University paper and not actually Government information? I can't remember if it was or not.


At least it will be mild!
Sevendust
01 April 2020 13:36:54


 


Agreed, with over 4k positive tests and the lag in mortality this is going to get alot worse before it gets better. HMG and their projections and strategy have been nothing short of catastrophic.


And to think, some people are more worried about the economy right now. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Well it's not that hard is it


You have to get this under control before the economy because the impacts of the virus are catastrophic


Yes you can mitigate the effects but without dealing with the cause you are pxssing in the wind

Gandalf The White
01 April 2020 13:37:00


 


I’m sure viruses don’t care about anything. It’s all about random mutations, if they mutate into a form that wipes out all the hosts then it will die out fairly rapidly*, if they mutate into a strain that transmits more efficiently then that strain will dominate. 



*unless it kills them in a sci-fi-friendly way that spreads the disease effectively, such as making them explode and spread virus particles everywhere, for instance...


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Exactly. I'm amused when people refer to viruses as if they have some form of intelligence: they're just a collection of nucleic acids. As I understand it RNA is less stable than DNA and that makes mutations far more likely, but those mutations are, as you say, completely random.  


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
01 April 2020 13:40:23

Very hard hitting article by Morgan who supported Boris Johnson at the General Election. He fears the UK is heading for a catastrophe. I've no idea whether he is right but the article (in the Fail sadly) is worth a read:


As for ventilators, numerous hospitals, especially in London which is the UK virus epicentre, have already run out – meaning doctors are having to make agonising decisions as to who lives and who dies.


And that's before the coronavirus bomb has even really gone off.


I fear the worst, by far, is still to come.


Britain is lagging two weeks behind Italy but tracking at the same death rate, and we have a significantly less highly rated health system.


I don't scare easily but I am genuinely afraid about what is coming and our ability to handle it.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8175857/Piers-Morgan-NHS-heroes-led-donkeys-Boris-overrule-experts-tests.html


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
01 April 2020 13:40:43


Coronavirus: Donald Trumps claims UK's initial strategy before lockdown was 'catastrophic'





Speaking at a press conference, Mr Trump criticised the so-called ‘herd immunity’ approach initially adopted by Boris Johnson. 


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-uk-news-latest-deaths-tests-flights-nhs-ventilators/


 





Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Given his bizarre contributions and rapidly shifting position over the last month that's actually quite comical.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


bowser
01 April 2020 13:41:39


Coronavirus: Donald Trumps claims UK's initial strategy before lockdown was 'catastrophic'





Speaking at a press conference, Mr Trump criticised the so-called ‘herd immunity’ approach initially adopted by Boris Johnson. 


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-uk-news-latest-deaths-tests-flights-nhs-ventilators/


 





Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


From the POTUS who called it a hoax!

Rob K
01 April 2020 13:42:31


Wasn't the 260 figure part of a University paper and not actually Government information? I can't remember if it was or not.


Originally Posted by: westv 


It was from the Imperial College modelling which was being used by the government to guide policy, I believe. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
01 April 2020 13:42:59


 


Given his bizarre contributions and rapidly shifting position over the last month that's actually quite comical.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes I agree. He has been all over the place. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
bowser
01 April 2020 13:43:15


 


Agreed, with over 4k positive tests and the lag in mortality this is going to get alot worse before it gets better. HMG and their projections and strategy have been nothing short of catastrophic.


And to think, some people are more worried about the economy right now. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It'll come more and more to the fore over the next 2-3months. We need a functioning economy even to deliver the basic necessities.

The Beast from the East
01 April 2020 13:44:34


Wasn't the 260 figure part of a University paper and not actually Government information? I can't remember if it was or not.


Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes, no one in Govt has given that figure. Justin is getting carried away and must show some patriotic duty and get behind King Boris


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
KevBrads1
01 April 2020 13:45:40

From other parts of the world.


The figures from Indonesia are disturbing. 1677 confirmed cases and already 157 deaths 


 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gavin D
01 April 2020 13:46:22


 Italy's new coronavirus cases expected to start declining soon




Quote

 


On Tuesday, the Higher Health Institute announced that after reaching its peak, the coronavirus' spread in Italy is expected to plateau for some time, meaning more recoveries than new infections are to be recorded for a while before the curve begins its descent. However, lockdown measures will be extended by at least two weeks from the initial date of April 3 set by the government, Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Tuesday. The government has yet to announce the new date.


Italy's Civil Protection Department announced on Tuesday evening that more than 12,000 people have died of the disease caused by the coronavirus and almost 16,000 have now recovered from the infection in the country. The overall number of people to have contracted the virus, including the deceased and those who have recovered, stands at about 106,000 so far. On Tuesday, flags flew at half-mast across Italy. A minute's silence was observed to mourn the thousands of victims of the coronavirus and express support for their families. The initiative was called by Italian mayors and shared by Italy's national institutions.


 





https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/04/01/622062/ItaDecline-in-new-coronavirus-cases-should-start-soon-in-Italy


doctormog
01 April 2020 13:47:16


 


So still not up to 10,000.


What disgusting liars.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Were these not the results announced rather than the number of tests carried out (unless the results are now coming back on the same day?) 


It is possible to have carried out 10000 tests yesterday yet only get 8000 or so results from previous days’ tests.


nouska
01 April 2020 13:48:44


 


 Another point worth making is that 10,000 tests does not necessarily equate to 10,000 people. Tucked away in the Times yesterday was a statistic which said that on day x when approx 8,000 tests were done only 4,932 people were tested. That's because a second test is often required. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, and don't forget they will be testing for a negative result prior to discharge from hospital.


And a new study...


https://t.co/cQYq5XgDR4?amp=1

JHutch
01 April 2020 13:50:54

Sad story here about a doctor who returned from retirement to help fight coronavirus but has now died from it.


https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/top-doctor-alfa-saadu-dies-from-coronavirus-after-returning-from-retirement_uk_5e84553dc5b6a1bb76504309

The Beast from the East
01 April 2020 13:51:20


Very hard hitting article by Morgan


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hysteria from Morgan


Italy will be easing the lockdown soon. We are a few weeks behind them hopefully


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 April 2020 13:51:46


Here is the model without 3 day periodicity incoperated:



Here it is with the periodicity incoperated.



 


 


The first does okay. The 2nd is well off the mark. But you will see we missed a big jump day 3 days ago.


 


All I'm saying is that before we panic, we should wait for another few days to see what has happened to this 3 day periodicity. Why did we miss a big jump day? Is this the big jump day we missed?


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It could be to do with variations in test results coming back. Not all authorities will be the same. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
01 April 2020 13:53:25


From other parts of the world.


The figures from Indonesia are disturbing. 1677 confirmed cases and already 157 deaths 


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


The 1677 figure is an irrelevance as the actual number of cases could be 100x, 500x........no one knows


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip

Remove ads from site

Ads