Hancock said we had carried out 10,000 tests on the 30th. He lied. That is the end of the argument.

It is not beyond the bounds that we get to a daily mortality rate of 1,000.

To think just a few days ago HMG said it may not exceed 260.

 Another point worth making is that 10,000 tests does not necessarily equate to 10,000 people. Tucked away in the Times yesterday was a statistic which said that on day x when approx 8,000 tests were done only 4,932 people were tested. That's because a second test is often required. 

It happened 5 times in a row with similar amplitude and identical phase and period.

Seems a bit too much of a coincidence to me.

We will see if the periodicity still exists in the data in the next couple of days. And if it does exist has the period and amplitude changed significantly?

Should add the JFF model without the periodicity called this day correctly.

I would expect tommorow to see a much smaller increase or even a decline. If that doesn't happen then my model has clearly got it very wrong indeed.

Agreed, with over 4k positive tests and the lag in mortality this is going to get alot worse before it gets better. HMG and their projections and strategy have been nothing short of catastrophic.

And to think, some people are more worried about the economy right now. 

So for tommorow JFF model is going for:

4230 new cases (-93)  with periodicity

4775 new cases (+451) without periodicity

Although if the periodicity still exists it will have gone out of phase so will have to account for that in the model parameters. Either way the increase tommorow should not be very large as it was today. If it is, then the decline in R0 that was suggested by the data may not be true after all.

The common cold is not one but around 200 viruses.

One of those viruses kills 100's of thousands each year. Only malaria kills more children globally then RSV. RSV kills thousands of elderly in the UK each year, and tens of thousands globally - however due to lack of testing the true numbers are not known. RSV is exceptionally common and almost all of us will have had it. But for most of us RSV is just a cold!!

Also some of the human coronavirus that cause the common cold are are known to kill around 8% of those that end up in ICU - mostly elderly. There has been a general lack of study into a lot of the viruses that cause the common colds especially the Coronaviruses and with regards to death's. Death's are often just marked down as flu like respiratory illnesses. 

Wasn't the 260 figure part of a University paper and not actually Government information? I can't remember if it was or not.

Well it's not that hard is it

You have to get this under control before the economy because the impacts of the virus are catastrophic

Yes you can mitigate the effects but without dealing with the cause you are pxssing in the wind

Exactly. I'm amused when people refer to viruses as if they have some form of intelligence: they're just a collection of nucleic acids. As I understand it RNA is less stable than DNA and that makes mutations far more likely, but those mutations are, as you say, completely random.  

Very hard hitting article by Morgan who supported Boris Johnson at the General Election. He fears the UK is heading for a catastrophe. I've no idea whether he is right but the article (in the Fail sadly) is worth a read:

As for ventilators, numerous hospitals, especially in London which is the UK virus epicentre, have already run out – meaning doctors are having to make agonising decisions as to who lives and who dies.

And that's before the coronavirus bomb has even really gone off.

I fear the worst, by far, is still to come.

Britain is lagging two weeks behind Italy but tracking at the same death rate, and we have a significantly less highly rated health system.

I don't scare easily but I am genuinely afraid about what is coming and our ability to handle it.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8175857/Piers-Morgan-NHS-heroes-led-donkeys-Boris-overrule-experts-tests.html

Given his bizarre contributions and rapidly shifting position over the last month that's actually quite comical.

From the POTUS who called it a hoax!

It was from the Imperial College modelling which was being used by the government to guide policy, I believe. 

Yes I agree. He has been all over the place. 

It'll come more and more to the fore over the next 2-3months. We need a functioning economy even to deliver the basic necessities.

Yes, no one in Govt has given that figure. Justin is getting carried away and must show some patriotic duty and get behind King Boris

From other parts of the world.

The figures from Indonesia are disturbing. 1677 confirmed cases and already 157 deaths 

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 Italy's new coronavirus cases expected to start declining soon

Quote

 

On Tuesday, the Higher Health Institute announced that after reaching its peak, the coronavirus' spread in Italy is expected to plateau for some time, meaning more recoveries than new infections are to be recorded for a while before the curve begins its descent. However, lockdown measures will be extended by at least two weeks from the initial date of April 3 set by the government, Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Tuesday. The government has yet to announce the new date.

Italy's Civil Protection Department announced on Tuesday evening that more than 12,000 people have died of the disease caused by the coronavirus and almost 16,000 have now recovered from the infection in the country. The overall number of people to have contracted the virus, including the deceased and those who have recovered, stands at about 106,000 so far. On Tuesday, flags flew at half-mast across Italy. A minute's silence was observed to mourn the thousands of victims of the coronavirus and express support for their families. The initiative was called by Italian mayors and shared by Italy's national institutions.

 

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/04/01/622062/ItaDecline-in-new-coronavirus-cases-should-start-soon-in-Italy

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Were these not the results announced rather than the number of tests carried out (unless the results are now coming back on the same day?) 

It is possible to have carried out 10000 tests yesterday yet only get 8000 or so results from previous days’ tests.

Yes, and don't forget they will be testing for a negative result prior to discharge from hospital.

And a new study...

https://t.co/cQYq5XgDR4?amp=1

Sad story here about a doctor who returned from retirement to help fight coronavirus but has now died from it.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/top-doctor-alfa-saadu-dies-from-coronavirus-after-returning-from-retirement_uk_5e84553dc5b6a1bb76504309

Hysteria from Morgan

Italy will be easing the lockdown soon. We are a few weeks behind them hopefully

The 1677 figure is an irrelevance as the actual number of cases could be 100x, 500x........no one knows